$NVDA · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-28
NVDA 仍是他的最大持仓，他非常看多，预计将获得丰厚回报，芯片销售将持续到 2027-2028 年之后；他认为低配 NVDA 的投资组合未来两到五年将跑赢市场，同时指出若 2029 年资本支出停止增长，随着客户转向 TPU 实现多元化，NVDA 可能难以守住份额。
逐段跳播
我认识的人里，我分析他们投资组合时，每个人都低配 Nvidia。他们低配存储。他们低配 Broadcom，而我就是认为这些东西在未来两、三、四、五年的增长会远快于市场。
I mean everyone I know when I analyze their portfolios are underweight Nvidia. They're underweight memory. their underweight Broadcom and I just think those things are going to grow much faster than the market for the next two three four five years
对，20。对，2029年自筹资金。但他们提到会削减资本开支。我在想，这是不是我们看到Nvidia下跌的原因之一。不过，对。
>> Yeah. 20. Yeah. Selfunding 2029. But they mentioned they're going to step down capex. And I wonder if that's one of the reasons we saw kind of Nvidia drop. Um but yeah.
那么，基于这个假设，为什么内存股会上涨而Nvidia会下跌呢？我完全同意，Emit。我很惊讶，显然有SKH的高预期，但它在那之后还专门涨得更多，我就想，如果他们要靠再增加200亿的股权和债务市场融资就能达到不需要再融资的地步，这对我来说太令人惊讶了。
提醒一下，这是一家负债超过1500亿美元的公司，所以实际上他们在这方面没有太多空间了。我本以为Google会拿下，或者说，抱歉，Micron会拿下很多人们称为周期性的真正AI基础设施标的，但结果有点参差不齐。
我认为Microsoft可能已经结束而Micron仍然上涨的原因，大概率也是因为TPU的评论。所以，更多公司正在从Nvidia分散开来。
>> Well, why would why would memory be up and Nvidia's down on that assumption? >> I completely agree, Emit. I'm surprised that well obviously there's SKH highex but it specifically spiked up even more after that and I'm like that seems so surprising to me if they're going to get to this area of not needing to you know tap more equity in debt markets only by 20 billion more as a reminder this is a company with over $150 billion of debt so there's actually not much more for them to go here I would have thought that Google would have taken or sorry um Micron would have taken a a lot of like the actual AI infrastructure names that people have called cyclical but it's sort of a mixed bag.
I would think the reason why Microsoft might be done in Micron still up is probably also because of the TPU comments. So more let's say companies diversifying away from Nvidia.
对我来说，也许我显然可能错了，Nvidia已经是巨头了，对吧，你已经拥有最大的市场份额，当市场持续增长时这不是问题，对吧，如果市场持续增长，即使你失去某些市场份额，你仍然有机会增长。
现在的问题是，这是我的想法，我仍然非常看好Nvidia，我在想，市场现在是不是在说，如果2029年资本开支不再增长，你是否有足够实力击退所有其他玩家并保住你拥有的市场份额，还是会失去市场份额，因为不再有那种情景了，就像我之前提到的，之前的情景是市场快速增长，即使你失去市场份额也没关系，现在则是，如果市场不再增长，你的市场份额和潜在收入会怎样。我不知道市场是不是这么想的，但也许值得考虑。
>> to me maybe I obviously I could be wrong is Nvidia is already the big player right you already have the most market share that's not an issue when the market keeps on growing right if the market keeps on growing even if you lose certain market share you still have the opportunity to grow now the question here for and this is my thought I'm still very bullish on Nvidia is like I I wonder if the market is saying now if 2029 the capix isn't growing are you going to be strong enough to fight off all these other players and keep the market share that you have or are you going to lose the market share because no longer you have that scenario that if the market the like I mentioned the previous the previous scenario is like market is growing rapidly even if you lost market share you you're okay now it's like well if the market isn't going to grow anymore what's going to happen to your market share and potential revenue I don't know if the market is thinking that but uh maybe something to consider.
Nvidia大幅抛售。Mag 7中每一次大幅抛售都在六个月内恢复了。看，2025年我在Mag 7中买入的头号股票是Nvidia，而不是Google。
Nvidia large sell-offs. Every single um huge selloff in the Mag 7 has come back in, you know, a six-month period, look, the the the number one stock I was buying in the Max 7 in 25 was Nvidia over Google.
我记得很久以前，当我还是财务顾问的时候，和Fidelity的一位投资组合经理坐下来谈过。他告诉我们，Nvidia是他的头号价值股选择，但他并不属于成长型基金。他属于价值型基金，但他们仍然想持有Nvidia。
所以他们不得不把它调整成“哦，这是一家价值型公司”。当时，你知道，这家公司的市盈率大约是100倍。
I remember sitting down with a Fidelity, this was a long time ago, back, you know, whenever I was a financial adviser. I sat down with this Fidelity portfolio manager that told us that Nvidia was his number one value pick, but he wasn't a part of a growth fund.
He was part of a value fund, but they still wanted exposure to Nvidia. So, they had to like kind of skew it to be like, "Oh, this is a value company." And back then, you know, the PE on the company was like a hundred times.
Oracle刚刚出来说他们将提供TPU。这是第一个将提供Google芯片的外部云。这是Nvidia的直接竞争对手。它增加了一条全新的收入线。正如我们从Nvidia和Broadcom以及许多这类公司所知道的，这是高利润率业务。
Oracle just came out and said that they are going to be providing TPUs. This is the first external cloud that's going to be offering Google chips. That's a direct competitor to Nvidia.
It adds a completely new revenue line. It's high margin business as we know from Nvidia and Broadcom and many of these companies.
所有这些都由我们领先的AI基础设施驱动，涵盖我们的TPU系统、Axion CPU、最新的Nvidia GPU，以及我们专为AI代理设计的代理计算引擎。
All of this is powered by our leading AI infrastructure spanning our TPU systems, Axion CPUs, the latest Nvidia GPUs, and our agent compute engine which is specifically designed for AI agents.
Nvidia也下跌了。
Nvidia is also down.
我们继续用Nvidia和AMD的最新创新以及我们自己的Maya系统来扩展我们的机群。我们已经收到了首批Nvidia Ver Rubin GPU，对此非常兴奋。
We continue to scale our fleet with the latest innovations from Nvidia AMD alongside our own Maya systems. We have docked our first Nvidia Ver Rubin GPUs and very excited about it.
本月早些时候，我们还宣布了由Nvidia的RTX Spark和DGX Station for Windows驱动的新PC。
And earlier this month, we also announced new PCs powered by Nvidia's RTX Spark and DGX Station for Windows.
我认为最近有一个和Nvidia有关的，就像这些大型并购和收购，公司直接出来说，“嘿，伙计们，我们不做了。”
I think there was one with Nvidia recently, like these big mergers and and uh purchases that the companies just come out and say, "Hey guys, we're not doing that."
为什么我们认为Nvidia在盘后下跌，鉴于两者都在大幅增加资本开支？但仍然，Nvidia看到的只有销售增长和更高的平均售价。
Wh why do we think Nvidia is down after hours given how much both are increasing capex but still like Nvidia has seen nothing but uh increased sales, higher average selling prices.
Nvidia仍然是我最大的持仓，我认为我会得到丰厚回报，就像我们之前每一次大幅加仓一样。而且Nvidia在2027年和2028年之后将继续销售芯片。
Nvidia remains my biggest position and I think I'll be, uh, rewarded handsomely like we have for every single other, you know, large step up. and um Nvidia will continue to sell chips long after 2027 and 2028
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 27 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。