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$NVDA

$NVDA · InvestAnswers · 2026-10-30

AI 摘要 · InvestAnswers

NVDA 正处于 ChatGPT 之后的早期阶段,由于供应和交易已提前安排到位,季度增长仍有可能接近翻倍且可预测。高需求支撑利润率并推动利润更快增长;Rubin/Rubin Ultra 改善了推理经济性,收入翻三倍被称为合理的保守估计,前沿实验室必须采用 Rubin。

看涨他说的是几个月内
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InvestAnswers发布 2026-10-30 · 14 段内容
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14 段内容
34:0068:11

Jensen 说,你们太厉害了,Colossus 1 和 Colossus 2 一年就做出来了,对吧?

Jensen saying, you guys are amazing doing it in a year for Colossus one and Colossus 2, right?

所以他非常有信心能从 Jensen 那里拿到自己的配额,Jensen 说过:“哦对,110万,100万颗芯片肯定会来,然后还有他的 Ultra。”

So then he's very confident that he will have his allocation from Jensen where Jensen said, "Oh yeah, 1.1 1 million chips are coming in for sure and then his ultras."

其次,Jensen 知道,他希望自己的产品尽快投入运行来展示它们。他知道没有比 Elon 更适合把它们启动起来的人。

Second of all, Jensen knows, you know, he wants his products to go into operation as quickly as possible to showcase them. He knows there's no better person to turn them on than Elon,

我认为我们处在 ChatGPT 之后 Nvidia 的早期阶段,那时候你会想,我几乎每个季度都要翻倍,然后你真的翻倍了,然后你不断超出预期,而且非常可预测,因为我在这个楼里注入产能,我在把芯片倒进去,我提前两个月就把交易做了。

I think we're in the early Nvidia after chat uh chat GPT phase where there you're think I'm going to almost double every quarter and then you you know actually do double and then you're constantly beating and it's very predictable because I'm pumping in this building I'm dumping in the chips I'm doing the deals two months ahead of time.

那么 Nvidia 的利润率,因为需求保持高位,利润增长得更快,你就能很快拿到两倍。

Nvidia margins right then because the demand stays high then you know the profit grows faster you get a quick two

Nvidia 开始做那个模块化的 DSX,14 天就能安装好,那还需要扩大规模,但他们已经开始做了,到第四季度事情开始加速,对吧?

you know the um Nvidia starts doing the um the modular DSX which installed in 14 days that still have to scale up but they start doing it and in Q4 things start speeding up, right?

我们来说一下 Rubin 吧,因为我们有暗芯片。我们有电力瓶颈,电力约束。

let's talk about Reuben's for a second because we have dark chips. We have a power bottleneck, power constraint.

跟我们讲讲 GB300 和 Rubin 的对比,它们在能效上高出多少,在 token 产出上高出多少,以及这实际上如何成倍放大,以便理解 Elon Musk 已经把全部供应都锁定了。

talk to us about the GB300's versus the Reubins and how much more power efficient they are and how much more token productive they are and how that actually multiplies with a view to understanding that Elon Musk has all the supply locked up.

所以 Rubin 芯片的功耗是 1.5 倍,也就是一颗 Rubin 芯片的功耗会比 GB300 高出 1.5 倍。那么整个数据中心也会多用 1.5 倍的电力,但你能得到,取决于你的用例,三到六倍,最高可达 10 倍,但保守一点说,比 GP300 多三到六倍的推理能力。

So um the the Reuben ships use 1.5 times like one Reuben ship will use 1.5 times more power than a GB300. So then the whole data center would use 1.5 times more power but you're getting depending upon your use case three to six as much as 10 times but you know like more conservatively three to six times more inference than a GP300.

所以这意味着,不是每吉瓦 260 亿美元、500 亿美元,而是每吉瓦可以做到 1500 亿美元,来自 Rubin 的推理,如果你能完全变现的话,然后 Rubin Ultra 还要更多,这大大改善了经济性。

So that means instead of $26 billion the $50 billion per gigawatt you could be making $150 billion per gigawatt from the inference of of the the Reuben um if you can fully monetize um and then Ruben Ultra even more so it improves the economics a lot

我一直在说,每个数据中心会更小,会降到大约 6000 亿,所以一吉瓦我只能建 1.5 个,5 个迷你数据中心,而那个是 2.5 个。所以我认为,收入翻三倍,对于 Rubin 更高的推理能力来说,是一个合理的保守数字。

I've been more so each data center would be um smaller like it be going to about 600 billion so I can only make 1.5 5 mini hard data centers for a gigawatt versus 2.5 for that.

So it's it's I think a tripling of revenue is a reasonable conservative number um when I go to the higher inference for for Ruben.

所以转向 Rubin 能赚更多钱。每次你换到更好的芯片,你就能从中得到更多。是的。所以转向 Rubin Ultra 会更好。

So going to Ruben though is more money. Every time you go to a better chip you get more out of it. Yeah. So going to Ruben ultra be even better.

关键在于,因为你建得更快,他们会是第一批实现 Rubin 规模化的人。所以如果我有三四个 Rubin 数据中心,就像从 H100 Hopper 转向 Blackwell 那样,Blackwell 除了推理更强,还使 Fable 的训练成为可能,还有更好的模型,Astro 模型。

所以对前沿玩家来说,不转向 Rubin 这边不是可选项。

And the thing is because you build faster they will be the first ones at scale with Rubin. So then if if I'm if I have um three or four Ruben data centers like the move from um H100 hoppers to Blackwell the Blackwell thing besides more inference it also enabled the training of Fable and the um the better models the Astro models.

So it's not optional for the frontier guys not to move to the the Reuben side.

所以 Rubin 很有价值,因为推理更强,但也更有价值,因为它能促成更好的模型被做出来。

So, Reuben is valuable for more inference, but also it's more valuable because it will enable better models to be made.

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