$NVDA · Schwab Network · 2026-11-02
NVDA 目前约为未来12个月预期盈利的14至15倍，十八个月内下降近一半，因投资者正在定价数据中心资本开支将于2027年见顶。说话者不同意这一看法：增长应推动数据中心支出远超2027年。NVDA 可将一半自由现金流用于回购和分红，且即便推出新芯片需求仍超过供给，租赁价格依然极高。
逐段跳播
比如，我想到的是像 Nvidia 这样的公司。Nvidia 股价目前约为未来 12 个月预期盈利的 14 或 15 倍。如你所知，这一估值在过去十八个月里下降了近一半。Nvidia 的股票交易表现就好像数据中心资本支出大概率将在 2027 年见顶。
I'm thinking, for example, of a company like Nvidia. Nvidia shares are now trading at about 14 or 15 times the expected earnings over the next 12 months. This rate, as you know, has fallen by almost half over the past eighteen months.
Nvidia's stock is trading as if capital spending on data centers will most likely peak in 2027.
但我的基本观点比这更好。我认为增长将继续推动数据中心的建设支出，远远超过 2027 年底。但没错，投资者正在迅速计入增长放缓的预期，甚至可能是达到最终峰值。
But my basic view is better than that. I think growth will continue to drive spending on building data centers, you know, well beyond the end of 2027. But yes, investors are quickly pricing in slowing growth, and perhaps even reaching a final peak.
我们看到 Nvidia 已经在这样做了。Nvidia 表示，未来将把一半的自由现金流用于股票回购和分红，但如今大多数其他大型科技公司无法这样做，因为他们把所有自由现金流都花在了建设数据中心上。
We see Nvidia already doing that. Nvidia has stated that it will spend half of its free cash flow on share buybacks and dividends going forward, but most other major technology companies are not in a position to do so these days because they are spending all of their free cash flow on building data centers.
这表明，即使过去两个月新的 Nvidia 芯片已经上市，需求仍然超过供应。租赁价格一直保持在极高水平。所以，这也是另一个重要指标。
This shows you that demand is exceeding supply even with the arrival of new Nvidia chips, as you know, over the past two months. Rental prices have remained extremely high. So, this is another important indicator as well.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 56 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。