$NVDA · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-04
NVDA未来几年仍可能上涨，因为相对于其规模和增长而言估值便宜，2029财年自由现金流接近4500亿美元，可用于回购；随着Google、Amazon和AMD竞争，其65%的营业利润率应会随时间推移而侵蚀，但本季度或下季度不会。
逐段跳播
总的来说，如果你建的数据中心更少，对Nvidia芯片的需求就会减少，还有Micron的内存之类的。
uh the overall if you're building fewer data centers you would have less demand for Nvidia chips and you know micron from a micron's memory and all that kind of stuff.
Nvidia是另一个非常引人注目的，我知道光是估值倍数本身就在很长一段时间内跑赢了市场。来了。估值倍数的复合年增长率是16.1%。现在，营收增长是在此之上的。所以这就是为什么他们的表现比那更好。
Nvidia is another one that's fascinating Uh, I know that that multiple alone beat the market over a very long period of time. Here we go. 16.1% compound annual growth rate on the multiple.
Now, revenue growth is on top of that. So, that's why they performed better better than that.
是的，但我是说这很有趣，因为市销率更高了，但Nvidia的市盈率基本上，我认为，我是说它可能比之前更低。
Yeah, but I mean it it is interesting because price to sales is higher, but price to earnings for an Nvidia is basically where I think I mean it's probably lower than where it was before.
在我看来，像Nvidia这类公司，市场其实是在说：你现在营业利润率是65%吗？而历史上它们的营业利润率大约只有15%。也许它不会回到15%，但五年后大概率也不会是65%，尤其是当Google和Amazon都是你最大的客户之一，而它们正在做一款竞争芯片，而且它们更愿意自己用。
It makes a lot of sense to me that some of the like the Nvidas of the world, the market is saying, you know what, you've got a currently is it a 65% operating margin when historically they have about a 15% operating margin.
Maybe it's not going to go back to 15, but it's probably not going to be 65 in five years, especially when Google and and Amazon are two of your biggest customers and they're they're making a competing chip that they would much rather use themselves.
所以，就好像这个蛋糕在变大，但争夺这块蛋糕的竞争者更多了。AMD就是其中之一。另外，其他竞争者就是Nvidia最大的那些客户。所以，从市盈率的角度看，这些利润率随着时间推移而下降，我一点也不会感到意外。
So, it's like the Pi is getting bigger, but there's more competitors competing for that Pi. And AMD is one of them. And, you know, the other ones are the biggest customers that Nvidia has.
So, it makes sense that from a price to earnings standpoint, I wouldn't be surprised to see those margins come down over time.
而Nvidia可能有点不同，因为它的营收已经非常非常大了。但如果看看Nvidia未来两年的预期表现，比如说两三年，它依然非常惊人。我认为到2029财年，也就是从现在起两年多一点，他们预计仅在一个财年内就能产生4500亿美元的自由现金流。
and Nvidia is probably a bit different because their revenue is already so so big. But I mean if if we look at what Nvidia is expected to do over the next two years, let's say two three years, it it still is incredible.
I think f their fiscal 29, so two two and two years and a bit more from today, they're expected to generate I think $450 billion in free cash flow in in just one fiscal year.
然后再回到Nvidia，凭借它拥有的现金规模，它只会回购更多股票、支付不错的股息，投资者就是这样获得丰厚回报的。
And and then going back to an Nvidia with the amount of cash they'll just buy back more shares pay a nice dividend and and that's how investors we will see a great return.
所以，尽管我仍然认为这只股票未来几年可能上涨，因为尽管它规模这么大，这家公司还是相当相当便宜，而且增长率——一家5万亿美元的公司同比增长70%，这相当了不起。我是说，本财年90%，下一财年70%。
So although I do still think that the stock could appreciate over the next couple of years because it it is quite quite cheap of a company despite its size and the growth rates like $5 trillion company growing 70% year-over-year is is is quite something.
I mean 90% this fiscal year, 70 the next fiscal year.
是啊，是啊。我们还得再看看。我一直在盯着那些利润率。它们不会在本季度或下季度受到冲击。
Yeah. Yeah. We'll have to see. I'm keeping an eye on those margins. It's not they're not going to be hurt this quarter or next quarter.
另外，部分原因是它们有Nvidia在背后支持。所以它们不会失败，即使失败了，Nvidia也会介入并把它们推向前进。
and also some because they're just backed by by Nvidia. So they cannot fail and even if they fail then Nvidia comes in and pushes them forward.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 14 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。