$NVDA · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-05
NVDA看似只有23倍市盈率很便宜，但这只是因为其65%的营业利润率远高于历史上15-20%的水平；若按正常的20%利润率，其市盈率将达65-75倍，且增长正在放缓。至少70%的增长应能维持到2027年，2028年则存疑，即便30-40%也尚可。
逐段跳播
然后最后一个基本上就是那个关键先生，也就是我们接下来几周要公布财报的 Nvidia。如果看起来他们知道该怎么回答这些问题，那我认为市场情绪也许真的会反转，因为就目前来看，情况似乎只会变得更糟。
And then the last one is basically the the king maker, which is which is Nvidia that we report in the next couple of weeks. And if it seems like they know how to answer the questions, then I think maybe sentiment does flip because as of right now, it does seem like it it's only going to get worse.
所以一切都归结为我们的供应不够。所以 Nvidia 赢，Broadcom 赢，Micron 赢，AMD 赢，连 Intel 都赢。
So everything has been we don't have enough supply. So Nvidia wins, Broadcom wins, Micron wins, AMD wins, Intel even wins.
如果你看看 Nvidia 这样的公司，人们喜欢谈论 Nvidia，说天哪，23倍市盈率太便宜了，但他们还有65%的营业利润率。而从历史上看，他们的营业利润率更接近15%到20%。
所以如果我们进入一个竞争更激烈的市场，供需不再像现在这样严重失衡，他们的利润率从65%降到20%——而这在历史上仍处于他们典型区间的高端——那么突然之间，这只股票就不是按23倍市盈率交易了，而是按65、70、75倍市盈率交易，而且增长还在放缓。
And if you look at companies like Nvidia, you know, people like to talk about Nvidia, oh my gosh, it's so cheap at 23 times earnings, but they also have a 65% operating margin.
And historically, their operating margin is more like 15 to 20%. So if you if we get to a more competitive market where supply and demand are not in balance the way out of balance the way that they currently are and their margins go from 65% to 20% which is still historically at the high end of their typical range.
Now suddenly that stock isn't trading for 23 times earnings it's trading for 65 70 75 times earnings and you're slowing growth.
如果我们进入这样一种情形：好吧，Nvidia 占据主导，但突然之间，Nvidia 仍然占据主导，同时有很多其他公司推出自己的芯片，TPU，还有 AMD 等等等等，那么它们本来也应该得到回报。
if we go to the scenario where okay Nvidia dominates but then suddenly we have Nvidia that still dominates but we have a lot of other companies that come out with their own chips TPUs you have AMD etc etc then they should have also been rewarded
Nvidia 说至少70%。他们还告诉我们，如果有更多供应按时上线，我们还能增长更多。所以我认为这不会改变，尤其是对27年而言。28年也许是另一个问题。但即便是28年，我们会从70%的增长一下子掉到只有10%吗？
大概率不会。所以即便我们从70%降到也许30%、40%，对我来说那仍然没问题，因为那个数字、那个美元金额本身变得太大了，所有这些公司仍然会从中受益。
Nvidia said at least 70%. And they told us we can grow more if we have more supply that comes online on time. So I don't think that will change especially not for 27. 28 is maybe another another question.
But even for 28 are we going to go from 70% growth to just 10%. Probably not. So even if we go from 70 to then maybe 30 40%. To me that's still fine because the number the dollar amount itself is just getting so big that all of these companies will still benefit from it.
我认为 Deepseek 让 Nvidia 下跌了20%。
Deepseek brought Nvidia down, I think, 20%.
但自从其他这些公司，Meta、Google，我是说，Sofi 自财报以来确实涨了一点，不过 Nebus，或者甚至 Nvidia 之类的，或者 Axon 也回升了一些。
But since all the others, a Meta, a Google, I mean, Sofi did go up a little bit or since the earnings, but a Nebus or or even an Nvidia or whatever or Axon also recovered a bit.
我们所有的问题都已经有了答案，因为 Nvidia 公布了财报等等等等，而市场情绪是
We've had all of our answers, all of our questions answered because Nvidia reported, etc., etc., and sentiment is
而 Nvidia，市值超过5万亿美元，较52周高点下跌了15%，或者可能更多。
And Nvidia, that's worth over $5 trillion being down 15% or probably more since the 52- week highs.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 14 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。