$NVDA · Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium · 2026-11-05
Nvidia 在增长 83% 之后，23 倍的历史市盈率看似便宜，但这建立在约 75% 的毛利率和约 65% 的营业利润率这一历史高位之上；历史上毛利率约为 50%，营业利润率为 15-20%。如果营业利润率降至 20%，市盈率将约为 65-70 倍，在增长放缓和利润率承压的情况下，该股将显得昂贵；2028 年营收负增长很可能进一步带来定价压力。
逐段跳播
所以，如果你看看一些大公司，比如 Broadcom、AMD、Nvidia、Intel。比如，如果你是 Alphabet，你会生产更多 TPU，少买 Nvidia 的芯片。所以，这可能是像 Nvidia 这样的公司股价下跌的原因之一。
So, if you look at some of the big companies, like Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Intel. For example, if you are Alphabet, you will make more TPUs and buy fewer Nvidia chips. So, this could be one reason for the decline in the price of a company like Nvidia.
现在，我想以 Nvidia 为例，因为它是全球最大的公司之一，未来几年它可能面临一些压力，而投资者今天就在考虑这些压力。如你所知，Nvidia 在过去几年取得了非凡的业绩。
Now, I want to use Nvidia as an example here, because they are one of the largest companies in the world and there could be some pressure on them in the next few years that investors are thinking about today.
As you know, Nvidia has achieved extraordinary results in the last few years.
我们来看看 Nvidia 的增长率。如你所见，去年增长了 83%。我经常从投资者那里听到的是，买 Nvidia 股票是划算的，因为它的市盈率很低。但当你分析市盈率是根据什么来确定的——这在科技行业和当前的 AI 交易中都是如此——你会发现，看起来便宜的股票实际上可能并不便宜。
因为它是基于传统的过去数据，而不是未来。所以我 100% 同意，从历史数据看，Nvidia 股票看起来很便宜，尤其是对一家增长如此迅速的公司来说。
Let's look at Nvidia's growth rate. As you can see, there has been 83% growth in the last year. What I often hear from investors is, you know, it's profitable to buy Nvidia shares because its price-to-earnings multiple is so low.
But when you analyze what price-to-earnings multiples are being determined based on —which is true everywhere in the tech industry and the current AI trade —you see that stocks that look cheap may not actually be cheap.
Because it is based on traditional past data , not the future. So I 100% agree that Nvidia stock looks cheap on a trailing basis, especially for a company that has grown so rapidly.
但我想把这些放在历史背景中来看，因为 Nvidia 并不总是能实现非常高的持续增长率。说实话，公司过去几年的增长率远高于过去 15 年。所以，我把这些数据回溯到了 2010 年。
你可以看到，Nvidia 的收入增长有时是负的。
But I want to put these things in historical context, because Nvidia hasn't always achieved very high rates of consistent growth. To be honest, the company's growth rate in the last few years is much higher than in the last 15 years.
So, I've taken this data back to 2010. You can see that Nvidia's revenue growth is sometimes negative.
那么，如果 2028 年收入增长为负，Nvidia 股票会怎样？在这种情况下，该股的市盈率大概率会小幅下降。这意味着你很可能面临定价压力。
So, what will happen to Nvidia stock if revenue growth is negative in 2028 ? In that case, the stock's multiple will probably decrease slightly. This means you will likely face pricing pressure.
我们来讨论一下这些利润率。因为我认为投资者现在最关心这个问题。市盈率是 23 倍，但这是基于 Nvidia 历史上最高的利润率。所以，目前毛利率约为 75%，营业利润率约为 65%。
从历史上看，我尽可能往前追溯。我们回到 2005 年。历史上，毛利率通常在 50% 左右。2022 年他们将其提高到了 60%。
Let's discuss those margins. Because I think investors are most concerned about this issue right now. You have a 23 price-to-earnings multiple, but that's looking at the highest margin in Nvidia's history.
So, the current gross margin is about 75%, and the operating margin is about 65%. Historically, I look back as far as possible. Let's go back to 2005. Historically, gross margins have typically been around 50%. They increased it to 60% in 2022.
那么，如果这个利润率下降 15 个百分点会怎样？更重要的是，从历史上看，Nvidia 的营业利润率偶尔为负，但通常在 15% 到 20% 的区间。所以，如果 65% 的利润率降到 20%，那个看起来便宜的 23 倍市盈率会突然变成 65 或 70 倍左右。
那时它就会显得相当昂贵。与此同时，你的股票增长缓慢，利润率也面临压力。
So, what happens if this margin drops by 15 percentage points ? More importantly, historically, Nvidia's operating margin has occasionally been negative, but it has typically been in the 15 to 20 percent range.
So, if the 65% margin drops to 20% , the price-to-earnings multiple of 23 that seemed cheap will suddenly become more like 65 or 70. Then it will seem quite expensive. At the same time, your stock is growing slowly and margins are under pressure.