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$NVDA

$NVDA · Stock Moe · 2026-11-06

AI 摘要 · Stock Moe

在NVDA从243美元下跌22%至约188美元后看多;他以188.24美元买入100股,并计划分批加仓。理由包括:市盈率23.8倍、营收增长106%、毛利率75%、在假设中国数据中心收入为零的情况下给出1080亿美元指引,以及315美元的目标价中位数,意味着仍有上涨空间。

看涨他说的是几年内
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Stock Moe发布 2026-11-06 · 22 段内容
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依我浅见,这就是一只 Nvidia 的股票。我记得以前和我一起直播的人,比如股市团队和其他人,他们在 Nvidia 股价还是两百多美元的时候就在谈论它。我们聊过它的潜力、它的增长、机器人技术等等,我们当时都非常兴奋。

In my humble opinion, it's an Nvidia stock. I remember people I used to stream with live, like the stock market team and others, and they were talking about Nvidia when the stock price was two hundred and some dollars.

We talked about its potential, its growth, robotics, and all that stuff, and we were all very excited.

对我来说,我想等到一个好卖价。我想等价格跌下来。未来这一点没什么可争论的。我们都认同它会成为一家巨头公司,并且会一直如此。几周或几个月前让我不安的是那些评级。现在,我已经不太在意了。我会在这个视频里再谈这一点。

For me, I wanted to wait until I got a good selling price. I wanted to wait until the price dropped. The future is not up for debate. We all agree that it will be a giant company and will continue to be so.

The ratings were what bothered me a few weeks or months ago. Now, it doesn't bother me much anymore. I will review that in this video.

价值 18,823.50 美元的 Nvidia 股票。我买了 100 股。这是我的起点。我会继续采用平均成本策略。

The value of $18,823.50 of Nvidia shares. I bought 100 shares. That's my beginning. I will continue with the average dollar cost strategy.

一笔买入 100 股的订单以 188.24 美元的价格成交了。你可以清楚地看到我们这里买到了什么。这是现在中心的位置。这只是个近似值。41。那么,我接下来要怎么做?记住,我们比最高点低了 22%。

我等着拿到这个折扣。我没有被媒体的炒作冲昏头脑。所有人都在谈论那阵骚动。哦,什么都在涨。买吧。就我个人而言,我喜欢等价格跌下来再买。

An order to buy 100 shares was executed at a price of $188.24. You can see exactly what we got here. This is the location of the center now. It's just an approximation. 41. Now, what am I going to do with this?

Remember, we are 22% below the highest level. I waited to get the discount. I did not get carried away by the media hype. Everyone was talking about the commotion. Oh, everything is going up.

Buy it. Personally, I like to wait until prices drop before buying.

距离财报发布还有 11 天。我们会看到会发生什么。让我们从一个没人预料到的数字说起。地球上最大的公司,市盈率只有 23.8 倍。记住,我认为这是一家将定义下一代人工智能和机器人技术,以及与他们设计的芯片相关的一切的公司。

Well, there are 11 days left until the earnings are released. We'll find out what happens. Let's start with the number that no one expects. The largest company on Earth is trading at 23.8 times its earnings.

Remember, this is a company that I believe will define the next generation of artificial intelligence and robotics, and everything related to the chips they design.

在我录制这段内容时,今天的收盘价是 188.65 美元。市值:它是全球最大的上市公司,市值 4.55 万亿美元。它还能再涨吗?它还能再涨吗?对我来说,答案是肯定的,绝对能。

The stock price at today's closing, as I record this, is $188.65. Market capitalization: It is the world's largest listed company with a value of $4.55 trillion. Can it rise any higher?

Can it rise any higher? And the answer for me is yes, absolutely.

过去四个季度实际实现的每股收益,不是预测值,是 7.91 美元。市盈率,也就是让我惊讶的那部分,是 23.8。

The actual earnings per share achieved over the past four quarters, not projections, is $7.91. The price-to-earnings ratio, which is the part that surprised me, is 23.8.

价格已经从峰值跌了很多。价格曾是 243 美元。我们现在是 188 美元。它可能还会进一步下跌。这就是我按美元平均成本买入的原因。我想等它至少下跌 20% 或更多再买。这算是一次回调。

通常,我看到这类回调会下跌 20% 到 30%,然后反弹创出新高。我们现在已经进入了我的买入区间。这就是我买入的时候。

The price has already fallen far from its peak. The price was $243. We are now at $188. It may drop even further. That's why I average the cost in dollars. I wanted to wait until it dropped by at least 20% or more before I bought.

This is considered a correction. Typically, I see these corrections drop by 20 to 30% and then bounce back to reach new highs. We have now entered my purchasing zone. This is the time when I buy.

那些在股价四百的时候,或者在两百的峰值时,鼓吹这只股票、叫你买入的人,就是在拿你开玩笑。他们想让你成为那些在百分之一买入、在百分之二卖出的人的流动性。然后你在 180 区间卖给我,我再卖给在 300 进场的散户,然后我再在 200 买回来。这是一盘国际象棋,而很多人只会下跳棋。

All those who promote the stock and tell you to buy when it is at four hundred, or when it was at its peak at two hundred, are the ones who are making fun of you. They want you to be the liquidity for those who bought at one percent and sold at two percent.

Then you sell to me in the 180 range, and I will sell it to individual investors who enter at 300, and then I will buy again at 200. It's a game of chess, and many people only play checkers.

营收已经翻了一倍多,而预测显示还会进一步增长。他们持续取得真正非凡的业绩。当你谈论 Nvidia 股票和它的价格预测时,我怎么知道它是现在最值得买入的股票之一,但怎么知道呢?

Revenues have more than doubled, and forecasts indicate further increases. They continue to achieve truly remarkable results. When you talk about Nvidia stock and its price predictions, how do I know it's one of the best stocks to buy right now, but how?

我们看这个,说去年第二季度,也就是 2025 年 7 月,是 467 亿。我们一路往上,816 亿、960 亿、1080 亿。你知道是什么阻止 Nvidia 赚更多钱吗?他们无法按所需数量制造芯片。

需求持续增长,他们跟不上。这正是让这只股票成为有趣投资的原因。

We look at this and say, 46.7 billion in the second quarter of last year, July 2025. We're going all the way up, 81.6, 96, 108. Do you know what's stopping Nvidia from making more money?

They cannot manufacture the chips in the required quantity. Demand continues to increase, and they cannot keep up. This is what makes this stock an interesting investment.

股价上涨,然后变得疯狂,又下跌了略多于 20%。我喜欢这样。这给了我以好价格进场的机会。如果下跌继续,Mo,会怎样?这就是为什么我的计划是平均成本法(DCA)。如果股价开始上涨,那没关系,我会继续平均成本。

如果它下跌,我也会坚持平均成本,而且我会更开心,因为我知道从长远来看,除非世界崩溃,我们会看到一轮芯片热潮。

The stock rose, then became frantic, and fell by slightly more than 20%. I like that. This gives me an opportunity to enter at a good price. What will happen if the decline continues, Mo?

That's why my plan is Dollar Average Cost (DCA). If the stock starts to rise, that's fine, I'll continue with the average cost. And if it goes down, I'll stick with the average cost, and I'll be happier because I know that in the long run, unless the world collapses, we'll see a chip boom.

数据中心业务现在占业务的 92%,并且增长了 117%。

The data center sector now accounts for 92% of the business, and has grown by 117%.

AI 数据中心正在蓬勃发展,大幅上涨。边缘计算 72 亿,同比增长 27%。业务中较小的那一半也在增长。利润率 75%,高于之前的 72%。他们用更多的钱赚更多的钱。这太不可思议了。

这一点让它不同于任何普通的繁荣。通常,当他们降价时,利润率会下降。但他们的利润率却在上升。这正是让我兴奋的地方。

AI data centers are booming and going up massively. 7.2 billion in edge computing, up 27% from last year. The smaller half of the business is also growing. 75% profit margin, up from 72%.

They're making more money from more money. And that's incredible. That part makes it different from any normal boom. Usually, when they cut prices, margins go down. But their profit margins are going up. That's what excites me.

好,他们预测会达到 1080 亿。1080 亿。天哪,给我哪怕一天那样的钱。假设来自中国的收入为零。他们说我们会达到 1080 亿。他们甚至不被允许向中国销售。他们为 11 月 17 日将要报告的季度发布的指引。

我甚至不知道这是真是假。我没有关注那部分。但我可以告诉你这一点:他们将在 11 月 17 日报告的季度是 1080 亿美元,上下浮动 2%。毛利率 74%。关于中国,公司表示假设来自中国数据中心的计算收入为零,零。

华尔街预期略高于公司指引,为 1089.8 亿。在我录制这个视频时,报告日期是 11 天后。我们拭目以待。我们拭目以待。

Okay, they predicted it would reach 108 billion. 108 billion. Man, give me just one day of that money. Assuming zero dollars from China. They said we'd reach 108 billion. They're not even allowed to Selling to China.

Their guidance, which they released for the quarter they'll report on November 17th. I don't even know if it's true or not. I haven't been following that part. But I can tell you this: $108 billion for the quarter they'll report on November 17th, plus or minus 2%.

Gross profit margin, 74%. For China, the company states that it's assuming no revenue from data center computing from China, zero. Wall Street is expecting a slightly higher figure than the company's guidance at $108.98.

The report date is 11 days from today as I record this video. We'll see. We'll see.

四个季度,四个,而且都不是小数目。华尔街说的,这是过去四个季度。他们这个季度超出预期 19%。我低下头让你们能看到。砰,砰,砰。而这里,他们分别超出预期 9%、19%、37% 和 19%,这是他们实际交付的。

他们连续四个季度超出预期。他们还会再来一次吗?如果他们没做到,我绝对会震惊。

Four quarters, four, and not small amounts. What Wall Street said, these are the last four quarters. They've outperformed by 19% this quarter. I'll lower my head so you can see that.

Boom, boom, boom. And here, they've outperformed by 9%, 19%, 37%, and 19% of what they've actually delivered. They've outperformed the expectations of the last four quarters. Will they do it again? I'd be absolutely shocked if they didn't.

仅仅六个月就有近 700 亿美元的自由现金。你听到我刚才说的了吗?他们有 700 亿美元的自由现金流。而且仅仅六个月。一个季度里,他们通过回购和分红向股东返还了 260 亿美元。

所以,他们在把钱还给股东。所以,我也想要一部分。所以,这些钱在流动,我想要其中一部分。还有 990 亿美元留给回购。他们已经批准了这些回购,但还没花出去。所以,也许,我猜,他们一个季度就有 260 亿美元。

股价现在正在大幅下跌。那正是你开始回购股票的时候。他们在出手,他们在公开市场上买入,因为随着股价持续暴跌,他们看到了增长,而且他们可以支撑股价。这就是我认为会发生的事。

Almost $70 billion in free cash in just six months. Did you hear what I just said? They've got $70 billion in free cash flow. And in just six months. In one quarter, they've given $26 billion back through buybacks and dividends.

So, they're giving money back to shareholders. So, I want some of that. So, this money is flowing, and I want some of it. $99 billion left for buybacks. They've agreed to them and haven't spent them.

So, maybe, I'd guess, they've got $26 billion in one quarter. The stock is going down sharply right now. That's when you start buying back the stock. They're getting out They're buying it on the open market because, as it continues to plummet, they see growth, and they can prop up the stock. That's what I think will happen.

回购股票。他们在退出,他们在公开市场上买入,因为随着股价持续暴跌,他们看到了增长,而且他们能够支撑股价。我认为这将会发生。以我的专业判断,这对我的个人投资组合来说是一个非常好的机会。

我不会告诉你该买什么或卖什么,那由你决定。但我要告诉你,我正在买入,我刚买了,而且我还打算买更多。

buying back the stock. They're getting out They're buying it on the open market because, as it continues to plummet, they see growth, and they can prop up the stock. That's what I think will happen.

This is a very good opportunity, in my professional opinion, for my own portfolio . I'm not going to tell you what to buy or sell. That's up to you . But I will tell you that I'm buying, I just did , and I'm looking to buy more.

以我的专业判断,这对我的个人投资组合来说是一个非常好的机会。我不会告诉你该买什么或卖什么,那由你决定。但我要告诉你,我正在买入,我刚买了,而且我还打算买更多。

This is a very good opportunity, in my professional opinion, for my own portfolio. I'm not going to tell you what to buy or sell. That's up to you. But I will tell you that I'm buying, I just did, and I'm looking to buy more.

Nvidia 的股价预测。等你看到这个就知道了。我们会讲到的,我们会讲到的。

Nvidia's stock price prediction. Just wait until you see this. We'll get there. We'll get there.

我的 Nvidia 股票跌了22%。我要利用这一点。好,回到正题。你能看到正在发生的一切;即使股价不动,市盈率自己就会变便宜。它就是这样,对吧?今天是23.9,而在11月17日之后,如果他们只是达到预期,就会变成20.7,这是一个不错的市盈率,对吧?

而在11月之后,如果他们像前四次那样超出预期,我们就会达到19.6。我喜欢这一点。59到62位分析师建议买入,我希望目前仍然如此。在下跌22%之后,这是一个好价格。目标价中位数是315美元,327美元是共识预测。

我们现在是188美元。增长空间巨大。上限是515美元。49个强力买入、10个买入、2个持有、1个卖出。他们说会达到62美元。好。六个理由,每一个都是本视频中提到的数字。营收同比增长106%,下一季度指引为1080亿美元。

哇。价格是23.8倍,我们知道它会下降,因为我们会得到一份好的财报,希望如此。利润率,毛利率随着营收增长而上升。随着营收翻倍,利润率上升得更多。客户,前五大买家增加了支出,而不是减少。

他们增加了。然后是免费期权,指引假设来自中国数据中心计算的营收为零,零。但如果他们拿到了,哦天哪,那将会一飞冲天。市场,大多数人表示有73%的上涨空间。

Well, my Nvidia stock is down 22%. And I'm going to take advantage of that. Okay, let's get back to the point. You can see everything that's happening; the multiple gets cheaper on its own, even if the stock doesn't move.

That's what it does, right? Today it's 23.9, and after November 17, if they just meet the estimates, it'll be 20.7, which is a good price-to-earnings multiple, right? And after November, if they beat expectations like they have the last four times, We're going to hit 19.6.

I like that. 59 to 62 analysts recommended buying, and I hope that's still the case at this point. With a 22 % drop, that's a good price. The median price target is $315, and $327 is the consensus forecast.

We're at $188. That's tremendous room for growth. The upper limit is $515. 49 strong buys, 10 buys, 2 hold, and 1 sell. They say it's going to hit $62. Okay. Six reasons, each one a number mentioned in this video.

Revenue growth is up 106% year over year, with guidance of $108 billion for the next quarter. Wow. The price is 23.8x, and we know it's going to drop because we're going to get a good earnings report, hopefully.

Margins, the gross margin has increased with revenue. With revenue doubling, the margin has increased even more. Customers, the top five buyers have increased their spending, not decreased it.

We've They increased it. Then the free option, the guidance assumes zero revenue from data center computing in China , zero. But if they get it, oh my god, that's going to skyrocket.

The market, most of them are saying there's a 73% upside.

有五件事可能改变我的想法,如果发生我会告诉你们。11月17日,同一份报告的日期。我一直喜欢以此作为指引。如果他们突然说一切都崩溃了,没人买我们的产品,我们当然会改变想法。客户会继续增加预算吗,会继续花更多钱吗?

电力,这才是真正的瓶颈。记住他们使用的所有资源,冷却、电力,所有这些。这是一个大问题。而且我告诉过你,押注数据中心 AI 的方式就是持有芯片。我喜欢持有芯片,因为他们不断推出更强大、耗电更少的芯片。

他们会用 Nvidia 正在发布的这些新芯片替换正在使用的芯片。那将意义重大。他们是否用更少的能源获得更多电力?是的。这就是我们的目标。焦点集中在少数几个买家身上。如果他们同时决定停止购买,我们就会有麻烦。

但我不认为情况会是这样。预期本身范围很宽,从3到8亿万亿,我必须说,这就是他们的预测。

Five things could change my mind, I'll let you know if they happen. November 17, the date of the same report. I always like to guide on this. If they suddenly say everything is falling apart and nobody is buying our products, of course we'll change our minds.

Will customers continue to increase their budgets, will they continue to spend more money? Power, which is the real bottleneck. Remember all the resources they use, cooling, power, all of that.

That's a big point . And I told you, the way to bet on AI in data centers is to own the chips. I like to own the chips because they keep coming up with more powerful chips that use less power.

They'll replace the chips they're using with these new chips that Nvidia is releasing . That's going to be big. Are they getting more power with less energy? Yes. And that's what we're aiming for.

The focus is on a handful of buyers. If they all decide at the same time to stop buying, We'd be in trouble. But I don't think that's the case. The expectations themselves are wide, from three to eight billion trillion, I must say, that's what they're predicting.

观察点

NVDA 11月17日的财报,尤其是客户预算趋势和需求方面的表态
客户继续增加预算,且指引未显示需求崩塌
11月17日11月17日的财报
支持看涨观点;若需求崩塌则会削弱该观点

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Stock Moe 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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