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$NVDA

$NVDA · Schwab Network · 2026-11-06

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

NVDA 较峰值低逾 20%、过去一周下跌约 14%,相比标普 500 约 19 倍远期市盈率对 16 倍,显得便宜,说话者认为风险缓解工作已大部分完成;他会将其作为核心持仓,现在买入一半、财报前后再买一半。他警告,若毛利率低于 72% 且指引疲弱,可能再跌 10% 至 20%;若 AI 叙事破裂,可能引发大幅回调,不过他并不预期如此。

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《Rob Luna on "Delayed" Tech Sell-Off, NVDA Cheaper Than SPX & RKLB Buy Opportunity》
Schwab Network发布 2026-11-06 · 12 段内容
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12 段内容
1:587:56

像 Nvidia 这样的公司很快就会发布财报。

companies like Nvidia are going to release their earnings reports very soon.

那么 Nvidia 在这个故事里处于什么位置?我的一位朋友问起 Nvidia,他相当担心,因为它的股价已经下跌了很长一段时间。比如,过去一年它下跌了4%,而大盘指数和其他科技股却在上涨,但我很多嘉宾仍然选择 Nvidia,认为它是这个板块中明确的领头羊,因为它有需求。

So where does Nvidia fit into this story ? A friend of mine asked me about Nvidia, he is quite worried because it has been on a downward trend for a long time now. For example, it has fallen 4% in the past 1 year while the average index and other technology stocks have been rising, yet many of my guests choose Nvidia as the clear leader in this sector because it is in demand.

如果 Nvidia 在187美元,你怎么看?告诉我你认为 Nvidia 接下来会发生什么。你看,它现在比最高价低了超过20%。过去一周它下跌了约14%。Nvidia 的交易现在几乎等同于 AI。

没有 Nvidia,AI 就无法以目前的速度继续扩张。归根结底,这是一家规模巨大的公司,你必须记住,它在很长一段时间里给投资者带来了超额利润,所以股价消化这些涨幅并不奇怪。

What is your opinion if Nvidia is at $187 ? Let me know what you think will happen next for Nvidia. Look, it's now more than 20% below its peak price. It has decreased by about 14% in the last week.

Nvidia Trade is now synonymous with AI. Without Nvidia, AI will not be able to continue its expansion at its current rate. The bottom line is that this is a huge company and you have to remember that they have given investors excess profits over a long period of time , so it is not unusual for the stock to digest that.

但看这家公司的估值,相比标普500,它的交易价格很便宜——它的预期市盈率约为19倍,而标普500是16倍。所以我认为,在这个阶段,很多风险缓解的工作已经替你完成了。

But when you look at the company's valuation, it's trading cheaply compared to the S&P 500, which is trading at about 19 times forward earnings versus the S&P 500's 16 times forward earnings.

So, I believe much of the risk mitigation work has been done for you at this stage.

考虑到这一点,显然他们很快就要发布财报了。所以,如果你想建仓,也许可以先投一半,之后再投另一半。但如果你相信 AI 交易,Nicole,我认为大多数人应该把 Nvidia 作为核心投资之一。

With that in mind, apparently, they are going to release their earnings report soon. So, if you want to take a position, maybe you can invest half now and the other half later.

But if you believe in AI trading, Nicole, I think most people should keep Nvidia as one of their core investments.

我们能谈谈 Nvidia 即将发布的财报吗?科技板块的一些指引或预测有点疲软,对吧?我最近一直听到并注意到,虽然各季度业绩很棒,但未来展望似乎有点松散。

Can we talk about Nvidia's upcoming earnings report ? Some of the guidance or forecasts in the technology sector were a bit weak , right? I've been hearing and noticing lately that while the quarters have been great, the future outlook seems a bit loose.

你认为 Nvidia 即将发布的财报中最重要的是什么?在听 Nvidia 财报时,你怎么判断 AI 的下一个大步骤会是什么?

What do you think is the most important thing in Nvidia's upcoming earnings report? How can you tell what the next big step in AI will be when listening to Nvidia's earnings report ?

是的,关键在于他们对未来盈利能表现得有多乐观,这才是真正的重点。作为股票投资者,我们买的不是上一季度的盈利,而是看公司的未来。我们看到的是约1080亿美元,这是巨大的同比增长。

Yes, the point is how optimistic they can sound about future earnings, that's the real point. As stock investors, we don't buy last quarter's earnings, but rather look at what the company's future holds.

We are looking at about $108 billion , which is huge year-on-year growth.

我认为人们担心的另一个大领域是毛利率。我们之前是75%。人们可能在谈论74%。如果它跌破72%,而且他们没有给出良好的未来指引,股价可能再跌10%到20%。所以你肯定必须为此做好准备,但我认为这不会发生。我认为他们这个季度大概率表现很棒。

I think another big area people worry about is gross margin. We were at 75 percent. People might be talking about 74 percent. If it falls below 72 percent and there is no good future guidance from them, the stock could fall another 10 to 20 percent.

So you definitely have to be prepared for that, but I don't think it will happen. I think they probably had a great quarter.

像 Meta 和 Microsoft 这样的公司现在正通过债务向这个板块投入大量资金,而 Nvidia 是直接受益者。我认为这不会很快停止。但问题是,明年会怎样?两年后会发生什么?

Companies like Meta and Microsoft are now pouring a lot of money into this sector through debt , and Nvidia is a direct beneficiary. I don't think this will stop anytime soon. But the question is, what will next year be like ? What will happen two years from now?

我这是在自相矛盾,因为我刚才说 Nvidia 看起来便宜。2006年或2007年,房价看起来非常便宜。房地产股也非常便宜,直到它们崩盘。为什么?因为当时的预期是人们会继续每年买一两套房。

对 AI 交易的预期是它会持续很多年,Nvidia 能够维持其收入流。如果有任何因素打断这个故事,这只股票和整个板块都可能出现大幅回调。

I'm contradicting myself because I said a little earlier that Nvidia seems cheap. In 2006 or 2007, housing prices seemed very cheap. Housing stocks were also very cheap, until they collapsed.

Why? Because the expectation was that people would continue to buy one or two houses every year. The expectation for AI trading is that it will continue for many years and Nvidia will be able to maintain their revenue stream.

If anything disrupts this story , this stock and the entire sector could see a major correction.

听我说,你说你喜欢 Nvidia。它从243的高点跌到了现在的187左右。不过,187比三年前的45美元高得多。对吧。所以,回顾三年,我认为人们处于不错的位置。

And listen, you said you like Nvidia. It has dropped from a high of 243 to around 187 now. However, 187 is a lot more than 3 years ago when it was 45 dollars. Right. So, looking back 3 years, I think people are in a good position.

观察点

即将发布的财报中的毛利率和未来指引
毛利率跌破72%且没有良好的前瞻指引
即将发布的财报NVDA财报
削弱该观点,意味着还将进一步下跌10-20%

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 56 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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