$NVDA · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-05
NVDA 23 倍的市盈率之所以显得便宜，只是因为其 65% 的营业利润率远高于历史上 15-20% 的水平；若在竞争下利润率降至 20%，在增长放缓的情况下该股将对应 65-75 倍市盈率。不过 NVDA 指引至少 70% 的增长，且仍有上行空间；考虑到不断增长的美元金额，即便 30-40% 的增长也足够。
逐段跳播
接下来有核心公司要发布财报，Nebulus 要发布财报，然后是 Oracle，再然后是 Nvidia，我认为到那时候，我们可能会看到这些公司——也就是那些大型 neocloud——给出多得多的实际数据，比 Oracle 要多；Oracle 不算 neocloud，但它们现在玩的是同一套游戏，同样的支出、同样的增长，以及目前糟糕的债务状况。
there is core that's going to report there's Nebulus that's going to report and Oracle then Nvidia I think that's that's when we might see way more actual facts coming from the companies in question the big neoclouds let's say than an oracle it's not a neocloud but it's it's the same game that they're playing right now same spending same growth, horrible debt profile as of right now.
然后最后一个基本上就是那个“造王者”，也就是 Nvidia，它会在接下来几周内发布财报。如果看起来他们知道该怎么回答那些问题，那我认为市场情绪也许就会反转，因为就目前来看，情况似乎只会变得更糟。
And then the last one is basically the the kingmaker which is which is Nvidia that we report in the next couple of weeks. And if it seems like they know how to answer the questions, then I think maybe sentiment does flip because as of right now, it it does seem like it it's only going to get worse.
所以 Nvidia 赢，Broadcom 赢，Micron 赢，AMD 赢，连 Intel 都赢。所以现在不只是 Nvidia 了。现在还有 TPU，有 Trainium，有 AMD。
So Nvidia wins, Broadcom wins, Micron wins, AMD wins, Intel even wins. So it's not just Nvidia anymore. Now you've got TPUs, you got tranium, you got AMD.
如果你看看像 Nvidia 这样的公司，人们喜欢谈论 Nvidia，说天哪，23 倍市盈率太便宜了，但他们同时还有 65% 的营业利润率。而从历史上看，他们的营业利润率更接近 15% 到 20%。
所以如果我们进入一个竞争更激烈的市场，供需不再像现在这样失衡，他们的利润率从 65% 降到 20%——这仍处于他们历史典型区间的高端——那么突然之间，这只股票就不是按 23 倍市盈率交易了，而是按 65、70、75 倍市盈率交易，而且你的增长还在放缓。
And if you look at companies like Nvidia, you know, people like to talk about Nvidia, oh my gosh, it's so cheap at 23 times earnings, but they also have a 65% operating margin.
And historically, their operating margin is more like 15 to 20%. So if you if we get to a more competitive market where supply and demand are not in balance the way out of balance the way that they currently are and their margins go from 65% to 20% which is still historically at the high end of their typical range.
Now suddenly that stock isn't trading for 23 times earnings it's trading for 65 70 75 times earnings and you're slowing growth.
从技术角度来说，我的意思是，如果我们进入这样一种情形：好，Nvidia 占据主导，但突然之间，Nvidia 仍然占据主导，同时又有大量其他公司推出自己的芯片，TPU，还有 AMD 等等，那么它们本来也应该得到回报。
technically speaking I mean if we go to the scenario where okay Nvidia dominates but then suddenly we have Nvidia that still dominates but we have a lot of other companies that come out with their own chips TPUs you have AMD etc etc then they should have also been rewarded
Nvidia 说的是至少 70%。而且他们告诉我们，如果有更多供应按时上线，我们还能增长更多。所以我认为这不会改变，尤其是对 27 年来说。28 年也许是另一个问题。但即便是 28 年，我们会从 70% 的增长直接掉到只有 10% 吗？
大概率不会。所以即便我们从 70% 降到也许 30%、40%，对我来说那仍然没问题，因为那个数字、那个美元金额本身正变得如此之大，所有这些公司仍然会从中受益。
Nvidia said at least 70%. And they told us we can grow more if we have more supply that comes online on time. So I don't think that will change especially not for 27. 28 is maybe another another question.
But even for 28 are we going to go from 70% growth to just 10%. Probably not. So even if we go from 70 to then maybe 30 40%. To me that's still fine because the number the dollar amount itself is just getting so big that all of these companies will still benefit from it.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 14 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。