$NVDA · David Lin · 2026-11-06
NVDA 的主要风险是循环融资：约 10% 至 15% 的销售额可能来自 neocloud 客户；如果大牌客户的现金流停止，整个交易就会瓦解。支持最大的几家 neocloud 对 NVDA 有利，但黄仁勋很可能不会过早、过度地投入。
逐段跳播
仅周四一天，Nvidia 就暴跌超过9%。
On Thursday alone, Nvidia plunged more than 9%
但后来有一篇关于 Nvidia 的文章说，你可能得去买旧的电话仓库和办公楼，把它们改造成数据中心，因为在蓝州获得审批会越来越难。
Um but then in there was an article about Nvidia that was saying you might have to um buy old um you know telephone uh wareh you know warehouses and offices uh and convert them into data centers because it's going to be harder to get approval in blue states.
问题在于这种局面还能维持多久，因为就连 Elon Musk 和 Jenza Huang 都在警告资本正在枯竭。
And the question is how much longer can this sustain because even Elon Musk and Jenza Huang are warning that capital is drying up.
Nvidia 需要找到更多买家。不过，并不是说他们找不到更多买家。
Nvidia needs to find more buyers. Now, it's not that they won't find more buyers.
确实如此，而 Nvidia 正处于中心位置。
It is and Nvidia is at the center.
Nvidia 有没有可能给这些 Neocloud 公司，也就是他们的客户，提供某种贷款，可以说是一种延期付款。换句话说，就是制造一种对 Nvidia 的债务关系，比如我不知道，也许他们以折扣价出售，或者先不付钱给我一段时间，直到你开始获得资本回报。
Could Nvidia possibly give some of these Neocloud companies, in other words, their clients, maybe a a loan, so to speak, in the in the sense that they could possibly have an extension on payment.
In other words, create an obligation to Nvidia whereby I don't know, maybe they sell at a discount or just don't pay me for a while until you start earning a return on capital.
我认为他们可以，但 Nvidia 今天跌了8%，我觉得 Jensen 正在三思。我的意思是，他资产负债表上的债务并不多，大约有380亿。他确实有一些表外承诺，也确实持有一些流动性差的公司的股份，但我认为他太聪明了，不会过度扩张。
I think they can, but you know, with Nvidia being down 8% today, I think Jensen is thinking twice. I mean, he doesn't have a lot of debt on the balance sheet. He has about 38 billion on the balance sheet.
He does have some offbalance sheet commitments and he does own some stakes in some illquid companies, but I think he's too smart to overextend himself.
我认为在某些情况下他会的。我实际上做过一些粗略估算，算出 Nvidia 大约10%到15%的销售额可能来自 Neocloud 客户，这实际上非常重要。
Um, I think he will in certain cases. I've actually done some back of the envelope math where I've calculated about 10 to 15% of Nvidia's sales are probably coming from Neocloud customers, which is actually very material.
现在，如果他支持最大的几家，比如 Cororeweave，给它们一条生命线，那对他自己的业务会非常有利。我只是不认为他想过早过度扩张。
Now, if he were to sport the biggest ones like Cororeweave and give them a lifeline, it would be very good for his own business. I just don't think he wants to extend himself too far too soon.
我们从 Enthropic 看到的情况是，AVGO Broadcom 会投资 Enthropic，然后 Entropic 会同意从 Broadcom 购买 AS6，这种循环融资已经超出了 Nvidia，我认为这是主要风险之一，这也是对冲基金也感到害怕的原因，因为如果来自 Broadcom 和 Nvidia 这些大公司的现金流停止，因为他们不想过度加杠杆，那么整个交易就会崩溃。
what we you know what we've seen with Enthropic is like AVGO Broadcom will invest in Enthropic and Entropic will then agree to buy um AS6 from uh from Broadcom and it's the circular financing goes beyond Nvidia and I think that's one of the main risks that's why hedge funds are also scared because if the cash flow from these big names like Broadcom and Nvidia you know stops because you know they don't want to overlever then this whole trade kind of fall falls apart.
Microsoft 从 Nvidia 购买1美元的 GPU。Nvidia 将这1美元计为收入，并实现75%的毛利率。所以在扣除 SGNA 后，它保留75%。你知道，扣除 SGNA 后的这75%会进入利润表底部，Nvidia 报告，比如说，50美分的每股收益，这非常巨大，对吧？
今年盈利增长的一半是因为超大规模云厂商和半导体，对吧？所以假设这是真的，那么这1美元中大约66美分流向 EBITA，修正后56美分流向利润表底部，这就是 Nvidia 过去12个月发生的情况。
Microsoft buys $1 of GPUs from Nvidia. Nvidia takes the $1 as revenue and it achieves a 75% gross margin. So it takes keeps 75% after SGNA. you know that 75% less SGNA goes to the bottom of the balance sheet and Nvidia reports you know let's say 50 cents of EPS that's huge right that half of you know the um growth in earnings this year has been because of hyperscalers and semiconductors right so let's say you know that's true so it's really like 66 cents of the $1 flows to IBITA and fix 56 cents flows to the bottom line that's what's happened in the last 12 months for Nvidia
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
David Lin 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。