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$NVDA

$NVDA · Ale's World of Stocks · 2026-11-08

AI 摘要 · Ale's World of Stocks

鉴于其极低的长期估值,NVDA 是长期买入机会:预计本财年收入将增长一倍以上至逾 4000 亿美元,两年后再翻倍至逾 9000 亿美元,对应市盈率约八倍、PEG 低于 0.5。他不为短期收益投资,预计近期将出现大幅波动,并指出该股在过去 13 次财报后有 8 次下跌,包括最近四次;他希望它进一步下跌。NVDA 在他的名单上排第二,仅次于 Amazon。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Nancy Pelosi is Betting $200M on These 5 AI Stocks 🚨》
Ale's World of Stocks发布 2026-11-08 · 31 段内容
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31 段内容
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因为这里的第一大持仓,也就是最大的持仓,是整个 AI 革命中真正的皇冠明珠。我当然说的是 Nvidia,股票代码是“NVDA”。它占其整个投资组合的 42%,价值超过 1.25 亿美元,令人惊叹。

Because for the number one holding here, the largest, well, we have what was truly the crown jewel of the entire AI revolution. I am of course talking about Nvidia, and its trading symbol " NVDA".

Which represents an astonishing 42% of its entire investment portfolio, worth over $125 million.

现在,如果我们看这里的股价图,可以看到 Nvidia 最近处境非常艰难,仅上个月就损失了近四分之一的市值。当然,从长期来看它表现仍然非常好,而且这次回调的一部分直接来自中期选举后的焦虑。

Now, if we look at the stock chart here, we can see that Nvidia has had a very difficult time recently, losing almost a quarter of its value in the last month alone. Although, of course, it is still performing very well in the long run, again, some of this recent pullback comes directly from post-midterm anxiety .

事实上,芯片股整体遭遇了多年来最大的抛售,悲观者还指出芯片成本上升,甚至担心云巨头正在自行设计芯片,这可能慢慢开始侵蚀 Nvidia 的市场份额。

In fact, chip stocks as a whole suffered their biggest sell-off in years, with pessimists also pointing to rising chip costs and even concerns that cloud giants are designing their own chips that could slowly begin to erode Nvidia's market share.

所以,让我们快速回顾一下其中一些担忧。正如我在上一段关于中期选举抛售的内容中所说——我会在下方附上链接,供想深入了解细节的人参考——我个人不认为政客们会突然通过完全禁止 AI 数据中心来阻碍本州的经济。

我认为他们会通过谈判获得更多税收,并在必要时设置一些限制,尤其是在能源及其来源方面。而且我相信他们最终会按计划推进。

So, let's quickly review some of those concerns. As I mentioned in my last segment on midterm selling, which I will link below for those who wish to delve into the details, I personally do not see politicians suddenly hindering their local state-level economies by completely banning AI data centers .

I think they will negotiate to obtain more tax revenue , and will put some restrictions in place where necessary, especially with regard to energy and its sources. And I believe that ultimately they will proceed as planned.

正如我所说,即使他们达不成协议,我认为这些科技巨头随着时间推移完全可以搬到另一个地方。我不是说这会很容易,但我认为他们肯定有经验和知识,而且他们存在的时间足够长,确实有能力应对这类组织或障碍,不管你怎么称呼它们。

As I said, even if they don't reach an agreement, I think these tech giants could simply move to another location over time. I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but I think they certainly have the experience and knowledge, and they've been around long enough to be really able to deal with these kinds of organizations or obstacles, whatever you want to call them.

但如今人工智能已经融入我们日常生活的方方面面,也融入世界各地消费者和企业的运营中,到这一步已经没有什么能阻止这列火车了。我不是说我喜欢这样,但现实是,对这项人工智能技术的需求很可能会继续以惊人的速度上升。

But with artificial intelligence being integrated into everything we do these days in our daily lives and the operations of consumers and businesses around the world, there is nothing to stop this train at this point.

I'm not saying I'm a fan of it, but the reality is that demand for this artificial intelligence technology will likely continue to rise at alarming rates .

事实上,仅前五大云计算公司预计就会把人工智能方面的支出从今年的 8000 亿美元增加到明年的 1.3 万亿美元,背后是全球超过 2.3 万亿美元的云订单积压。

In fact, the top five cloud computing companies alone are expected to increase their spending on artificial intelligence from $800 billion this year to $1.3 trillion next year, supported by a global cloud order book exceeding $2.3 trillion.

这推动 Nvidia 的利润表交出了亮眼的成绩。例如,上一季度营收增长了一倍多,超过960亿美元,其中仅数据中心营收就跃升117%,达到890亿美元。

This drives impressive results in Nvidia's income statement . For example, revenues more than doubled in the last quarter to more than $96 billion, with data center revenues alone jumping 117% to $89 billion.

这一成绩是在高达75%的惊人毛利率下实现的。更夸张的是,他们将其中的近600亿美元转化为净利润,仅在3个月内就产生了超过210亿美元的自由现金流。

This was achieved with an astonishing gross profit margin of 75%. What's even crazier is that they turned nearly $60 billion of that into net profit, also generating more than $21 billion in free cash flow in just 3 months.

我承认,云计算公司自行设计芯片构成了一个真实威胁,我们作为投资者应长期关注,因为 Google、Amazon 和 Meta 这样的公司肯定希望降低他们目前支付给 Nvidia 的75%利润率。

I will admit that cloud computing companies designing their own chips poses a real threat that we as investors should monitor in the long term, because companies like Google, Amazon and Meta would certainly like to reduce the 75% profit margin they currently pay to Nvidia.

不过,这些公司都不会轻易放弃 Nvidia,原因仍主要有两个。首先,自研定制芯片从设计到生产需要数年时间,而 AI 模型每隔几个月就会演进一次。因此,对于高级训练,你仍然需要 Nvidia 的速度和灵活性,既体现在它每年设计新配置的速度上,也体现在它更新新软件并大规模采用的速度上。

However, there are still two main reasons why none of these companies would simply abandon Nvidia. Firstly, in-house customized chips take years to design and produce, while AI models evolve every few months.

Therefore, for advanced training, you still need Nvidia's speed and flexibility, both in the speed with which it designs new configurations each year, and in the speed with which it updates with new software and adopts it on a large scale.

这就引出了第二个原因,即软件,因为所有这些外部云客户——也就是真正付费租用算力的公司——仍然直接在 Nvidia 的 CUDA 平台上编写代码。

This leads me to the second reason, which is software, since all these external cloud customers, the actual companies that pay to rent computing power, still write their code directly on Nvidia's CUDA platform.

因此,如果任何云服务商停止提供 Nvidia 设备,他们的客户就会干脆收拾东西,转向另一家提供该设备的服务商。

Therefore , if any cloud provider stops offering Nvidia devices, their customers will simply pack up and move to another provider that does.

于是,KODA 软件这道“护城河”最终把整个生态系统牢牢困在其中。

Thus, this "ditch" of KODA software ends up trapping the entire ecosystem in place.

在硬件方面,Nvidia 继续以我认为竞争对手真正无法跟上的速度创新。因此,尽管我认为许多科技巨头会尽可能、在合适的地方使用自家芯片来支持其运营。他们当然可以随着时间推移在这方面改进,并帮助降低一些成本。

但总体而言,我认为 Nvidia 大概率仍将是人工智能领域最严肃工作中最重要、最不可或缺的黄金标准。

As for hardware, Nvidia continues to innovate at a pace that I don't think the competition can really keep up with. Therefore, although I believe that many of the technology giants will try to use their own chips wherever possible for their operations, and wherever it is appropriate.

They can certainly improve on that over time and help reduce some costs. But overall, I think Nvidia will probably remain the most important and necessary gold standard for the most serious work in the field of artificial intelligence.

事实上,他们已经开始出货下一代 Vera Rubin 架构。正如 CEO Jensen Huang 所指出的,Hooper 每吉瓦产生180亿美元,Blackwell 为250亿美元,而 Vera Rubin 预计每吉瓦将产生400亿美元营收,这是一个惊人的数字。

In fact, they have already started shipping the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture. As CEO Jensen Huang pointed out, while Hooper generated $18 billion per gigawatt and Blackwell $25 billion, Vera Rubin is expected to generate $40 billion in revenue per gigawatt, a phenomenal figure.

更令人印象深刻的是,Nvidia 不再只是销售独立的图形芯片,而是现在销售完整的预装服务器单元。它们运行起来几乎就像即用型计算工厂,并配备全新的 Vera 中央处理器。

What's even more impressive is that Nvidia no longer just sells discrete graphics chips, but now sells complete pre-built server units . They operate almost like ready-to-use computing factories, complete with brand-new Vera central processing units.

但现在,由于独立的 AI 智能体需要大量日常算力来执行任务和浏览网页,Nvidia 正在为它们自建 CPU,把竞争对手挤到一边,并抢占此前只流向其他芯片制造商的数十亿美元企业支出。

But now, because standalone AI agents require a lot of day-to-day computing to perform tasks and browse the web, Nvidia is building its own CPUs for them, sidelining the competition and capturing billions of dollars of corporate spending that previously went only to other chipmakers.

所以,是的,Nvidia 将面临一些加剧的竞争,但它同时也在试图从其他公司手中夺取市场份额。最妙的是,当你把爆发式的财务表现与近期的股价下跌结合起来看,Nvidia 目前的估值低得令人震惊。

So, yes, Nvidia will face some increased competition, but it is also trying to take market share from other companies as well. Best of all, when you combine explosive financial performance with a recent price drop, Nvidia is now trading at a shockingly low valuation.

例如,2025财年的营收约为1300亿美元。分析师预计,本财年营收将增长一倍多,超过4000亿美元,而两年后还将再翻一番,超过9000亿美元。

For example , revenues were around $130 billion in fiscal year 2025. Analysts expect these revenues to more than double in the current fiscal year to exceed $400 billion, and then double again to exceed $900 billion two years later.

这使他们拥有超过6000亿美元的惊人营业利润,实际净利润也约为5000亿美元。

This leaves them with a staggering operating income of over $600 billion , with an actual net income of around half a trillion dollars as well.

各位,这意味着市盈率将只有约8倍。对于他们所实现的增长率来说,这是一个低得离谱的水平。事实上,正因如此,看市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG)的话,它不到0.5,比行业平均水平便宜60%以上——如果你相信的话。

And now, folks, this means the price-to-earnings ratio will be only about eight . This is an insanely low level for the growth rate they are achieving. In fact, because of this, when you look at the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, it is less than 0.5, which is more than 60% cheaper than the industry average, if you believe it.

正因如此,分析师维持的平均目标价,仅在未来十二个月内就可能带来超过75%的涨幅。Nvidia 现在计划很快发布下一份财报。实际上就在这个月,我想是11月17日。

Because of this, analysts maintain an average price target that could yield gains of over 75% in the next twelve months alone. Nvidia is now scheduled to release its next earnings report very soon .

This month, actually, I think it's on November 17th.

回顾过去十三份财报的历史,Nvidia 的股价实际上在其中八份发布后立即下跌,包括最近连续四个季度,这有点令人担忧。

Looking at the history of the last thirteen reports, Nvidia's stock has actually declined immediately after eight of them, including the last four quarters in a row, which is a little worrying.

所以,当你把这段历史——市场要求利润绝对完美——与来自大型企业的日益激烈的竞争、对人工智能领域过度支出的担忧,或许还有对民主党在选举后推出新监管以及州长人选变动的担忧结合起来看。

是的,在新业绩发布之前,这并不是最容易持有或最安全的股票。

So, when you combine that history of the market demanding absolute profit perfection with increasing competition from large corporations, concerns about excessive spending on artificial intelligence, and perhaps also concerns about Democrats adding new regulations after elections and changes in governors.

Yes, this is not the easiest or safest stock to hold right before the new results are released .

因此,我完全理解有人想先等一等,看看这些业绩实际会如何。但再说一次,我投资这只股票不是为了快速或短期获利,也不是为了这个月或下个月会发生什么。我看得更多是长期。

Therefore, I completely understand the desire to wait a while to see how those results actually turn out. But again, I am not investing in this stock for quick or short-term gains, or for what will happen this month or next month. I'm looking at it much more in the long term.

从这个角度看,鉴于其长期估值非常低,我认为这只股票看起来仍是一个买入机会。但再说一次,我理解一些人希望在此保持谨慎,期待股价在那些业绩公布后进一步下跌,而这正是我作为股东个人所希望的。我其实希望股价下跌。

From this perspective, I believe the stock still looks like a buying opportunity, given its very low long-term valuation. But again, I understand the desire of some to be cautious here in the hope that the stock will fall further after those profits, which is what I personally hope for as a shareholder. I actually want the stock to go down.

作为一名长期投资者,我总是希望我最看好的股票价格下跌,这样我就能以尽可能低的成本买入,然后从它们未来几年的出色增长中受益。

As a long-term investor, I always hope that the prices of my favorite stocks will fall so that I can get the lowest possible cost and then benefit from their great growth in the coming years.

我只是想在这里提醒一句:你应该预料到会有一些波动。考虑到它们周围正在发生的一切,我认为这在不久的将来就会发生。要做好股价大幅波动的准备。它可能上涨也可能下跌,但我就是认为会有一些波动。

I'm just trying to add a word of caution here, which is that you should expect some fluctuations. I think that will happen in the near future, given everything that is going on around them.

Just be prepared for significant price fluctuations. It may be up or down, but I simply think there will be some fluctuations.

但就排名而言,我仍把这只股票放在我们名单上非常高的位置。我不能把它提到 Amazon 的水平。这是一只我非常喜欢的股票。它是整个市场中我最看好的股票之一。因此,我不能把它提到 Amazon 的水平。

But in terms of ranking, I still place this stock very high on our list. I can't raise it to Amazon's level. This is a stock I love very much. It's one of my favorites in the entire market.

Therefore, I cannot raise it to the level of Amazon.

但基于目前的评估指标,我认为在我们的名单上应该给 Nvidia 略微优先一点,把它排在第二位。

But based on current evaluation metrics, I think I should give Nvidia a very slight edge in our list and put it in second place.

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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