$NVDA · Meet Kevin · 2026-11-08
NVDA 逢跌就买:它很便宜,估值约为 AMD 的一半;利润率约 75%,比 AMD 高约 50%;数据中心敞口 62.8%,领先约 50%。黄仁勋的间谍/离婚丑闻是一处污点,但不改变 NVDA 的走势,也不会让他被解雇;即便全部抛售约 4.35 亿股,也只形成约 1.25% 的抛压,隔夜 3.5% 的下跌并不是终点。
逐段跳播
看起来,这家全球市值第二高的公司Nvidia(最近被Apple超越)的CEO,正在暗中用一名中国情报人员替换自己的妻子。
It appears that the CEO of the world's second most valuable company, Nvidia, which was recently overtaken by Apple, was secretly replacing his wife with a Chinese intelligence operative.
换句话说,市值超过4.5万亿美元的Nvidia的CEO黄仁勋,按他本人现在的承认,显然与一名由北京国家安全部安插的、有魅力的中国间谍有婚外情。
In other words, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, a company valued at over $4.5 trillion, was apparently having an affair, by his own admission now, with an attractive Chinese spy planted by Beijing’s Ministry of State Security.
那么,到2026年我们处在什么位置?这对股价意味着什么,对,嗯,Nvidia的股价以及整个AI业务意味着什么?
So, where do we stand in 2026? What does this mean for the stock, and for, well, Nvidia stock and the entire AI business?
所以,显然,有这么一家公司在5月针对Nvidia设立了一个做空中心,并在这里公开了它的研究。他们主张,Nvidia声称其业务中有0%流向中国,但一直有人质疑:为什么那么多新加坡公司突然成了Nvidia的大客户,以及中国如何持续获得其最新、最好的Nvidia芯片。
So, apparently, you have this company that started a short-selling center in Nvidia in May and published its research to the public here. They argue that Nvidia claims that 0 percent of its business went to China, but there have always been questions about why so many Singaporean companies suddenly became major Nvidia customers, and how China continues to get its latest and best Nvidia chips.
Megaspeed当时在购买Nvidia芯片。由于购买了大量Nvidia芯片,她获得了与黄仁勋的密切关系和直接接触渠道,这可能最终促成了黄仁勋与那名中国间谍之间发展出的关系。
Megaspeed was buying Nvidia chips. As a result of purchasing a lot of Nvidia chips, she gained a close relationship and direct access to Jensen Huang, which may have eventually led to the relationship that developed between Jensen and the Chinese spy.
要知道,黄仁勋的许多子女已经在Nvidia工作。我确信他们至少有两个成年儿子在Nvidia担任副总裁职位,但这一部分虽然明天在办公室里会让他们难堪,在这里却不太重要。
Keep in mind that many of Jensen's children already work at Nvidia. I'm sure at least two of their adult sons hold vice-presidential positions at Nvidia, but that part, although it will be embarrassing for them in the office tomorrow, doesn't matter much here.
然而,对于我在Nvidia的同事们,包括那些与我共事数十年的同事,以及我们在世界各地的董事会伙伴和股东,你们理应得到我最好的付出。领导Nvidia是我一生的荣幸,我的职责是服务你们、不辜负你们的信任。
我在这份职责上有所欠缺,但我完全忠于Nvidia,并将努力重新赢得你们的信任。
However, to my colleagues at Nvidia, including those I have worked alongside for decades, and to our board partners and shareholders from around the world, you deserve the best from me.
Leading Nvidia is my life's privilege and my responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust. I have fallen short in this responsibility, but I am fully committed to Nvidia and will work to regain your trust.
关于新闻报道中提出的国家安全关切,董事会已启动一项独立调查。我支持这项调查,并将全力配合。我爱我的国家和我们的公司,我致力于保护Nvidia并支持美国的国家安全。
Regarding the national security concerns raised in news reports, the board has initiated an independent investigation. I support this investigation and will cooperate fully. I love my country and our company, and I am committed to protecting Nvidia and supporting American national security.
所以,现在很多人猜测,黄仁勋是故意推动特朗普政府向中国出售Nvidia芯片的,原因就是这个女人。简而言之,我的看法是,黄仁勋无论如何都会想向中国出售芯片,他推动向中国出售芯片是因为中国是一个巨大的客户。
So, a lot of people are now speculating that Jensen, you know, was deliberately pushing the Trump administration to sell Nvidia chips to China because of this woman. My opinion on this, in short, is that Jensen would have wanted to sell chips to China anyway, and he was pushing to sell chips to China because it is a huge customer.
因此,现在很多人惊慌失措地说:“天哪,Nvidia要毁掉AI业务了。”我们限制了他们制造芯片的能力,但他们却设法用一项旧技术搞出了DRAM。所以,我认为这些限制没有奏效,而现在我们的存储芯片公司股价正在暴跌。
Therefore, many people are now panicking, saying, "Oh my God, Nvidia is going to destroy the AI business." We imposed restrictions on their ability to manufacture chips, yet they managed to figure out how to make DRAM using an old technique.
So, I think the restrictions didn't work, and now our memory company stocks are collapsing.
根据我的研究,他没有。这一点我可能说错了,但这意味着很可能即将发起行动的黄女士持有Nvidia的大量股份。有人怀疑这会引发某种Nvidia股票的抛售。有人担心黄仁勋实际上会被赶下台。
我的意思是,如果我们看看黄仁勋持有多少Nvidia股份,你可能会说:“嗯,其中一半最终可能变成他们要抛售的股份。”所以,假设她全部抛售其约4.35亿股Nvidia股票,你谈论的是大约1.25%的影响。
According to my research, he doesn't have one. I may be wrong about that, but it means that Ms. Huang, who is likely to launch soon, owns a significant stake in Nvidia. Some people suspect that this will lead to some kind of sell-off of Nvidia shares.
Some fear that Jensen will essentially be ousted from his position. I mean, if we look at how much Jensen owns of Nvidia, you could say, "Well, half of that might end up as a stake for them to get rid of."
So, you're talking about an impact of about 1.25% assuming she divested all of her roughly 435 million shares in Nvidia.
我们想要定制最新、最好的芯片。这里面牵涉大量资金,也牵涉国家安全,关乎谁拥有最强大的网络武器。这就是我们这里作为Nvidia芯片买家所面对的情况。Alice Huang,嗯,关于她的一些信息。
她的中文名是黄莉,她是中国公民,正如我们提到的,与黄仁勋没有亲属关系。她是Mega Speed International的高管。这是一家新加坡公司。记录中把她列为行政经理。我后来已离开董事会。
她曾公开以Mega Speed的CEO身份示人。至少这是我过去所声称的。而现在,当然,人们都在想:“嗯,她的履历可能完全是编造的。”“比如,Mega Speed最初是从哪里来的?”
嗯,它是在2023年3月GPT发布时由一家名为“Seven Road International”的公司更名而来的。所以,这一切都追溯到GPT发布的时候。这也正是Seven Road International突然变成黄莉的公司的时候。
事实上,它已被改造成“Huang Li Limited”。没错。好。无论如何,《华尔街日报》对这家公司已经怀疑了一段时间,甚至有传言说新加坡和台湾当局试图追踪它并派人监视,或进行特别调查,以查明这个女人是谁、她真正意图做什么。
这是《华尔街日报》的说法。Robbie Whelan,他已经写过一篇关于我的报道。Robbie Whelan主张台湾和新加坡各自进行了调查。当然,这些国家公开否认进行过这些调查,这一点也不稀奇。
所以,这家公司的来历背景真的很奇怪。然而,突然间他们有了大量资金来购买图形处理器。
We want to customize the latest and best chips. There is a lot of money at stake in this, and there is also national security at stake related to who possesses the most powerful cyber weapons.
This is what we have here as a buyer of Nvidia chips. Alice Huang, well, a little information about her. Her Chinese name is Huang Li, and she is a Chinese citizen, not related to Jensen as we mentioned.
An executive at Mega Speed International. It is a company in Singapore. The records list her as an administrative manager. I have since left the board of directors. She has publicly presented herself as the CEO of Mega Speed.
That's at least what I've claimed in the past. And now, of course, people are wondering: "Well, her biography might be completely fabricated." "For example, Mega Speed, where did they originally come from?"
Well, it was renamed from a company called "Seven Road International" in March 2023 when GPT was launched. So, it all goes back to the time GPT was released. This is also when Seven Road International suddenly became Huang Li's company.
In fact, it has been transformed into "Huang Li Limited". correct. Good. In any case, the Wall Street Journal had been suspicious of this company for some time, and there were even rumors that Singaporean and Taiwanese authorities were trying to track it down and send people to monitor it, or conduct a special investigation to find out who this woman was and what she really intended to do.
That's what the Wall Street Journal says. Robbie Whelan, he's already done a story about me. Robbie Whelan argued that Taiwan and Singapore conducted their own investigations. Of course, those countries publicly deny conducting these investigations, which is not at all unusual.
So, you have a really strange background on where this company came from. However, suddenly they had a lot of money to buy graphics processing units.
黄先生,我们写信请求您出席我们委员会的闭门联合简报会,就Nvidia防范外国对手间谍活动的安全协议,以及您与一名在中华人民共和国被公开披露的情报人员之间的往来作出说明。
Mr. Huang, we are writing to request that you appear before our committee for a closed joint briefing on Nvidia’s security protocols against foreign adversary espionage and your interactions with a publicly disclosed intelligence asset in the People’s Republic of China.
那么,这对股价意味着什么,尤其是考虑到像Marco Rubio这样的人已经就此纠缠你一段时间了?“现在要是带Jensen去中国,那会很尴尬。”他们最终还是带他去了中国。我觉得,事情又回到了原点,这局面挺奇怪的。
So, what does this mean for the stock, especially since people like Marco Rubio have been hounding you about this for a while? , it would be embarrassing if we took Jensen to China now."
They ended up taking him to China anyway. It's a strange situation where things have gone back to square one, I think.
不过,Jensen也经常否认发生过任何不寻常的事情。中国最终获得了制造H200型号和更弱型号、以及获取旧型号的批准。许多人认为,这名中国特工与黄仁勋对施压的贡献之间存在联系,正是这种施压促成了这件事。
再说一次,我认为这无论如何都会发生。例如,黄仁勋向Donald Trump的白宫宴会厅基金捐赠了2000万美元。而这里很多人说:“哦,Kevin,你知道,上市公司都会为宴会厅基金捐款。”
回应是:“是的,绝对如此,但他们是拿自己的钱为宴会厅出资,以从Trump那里获得好处。”比如受邀访问中国,或者获得进入中国的渠道,不管是什么。
However, Jensen also regularly denies that anything unusual has happened . China eventually obtained approval to manufacture H200 models and weaker models, and to gain access to older models.
Many believe there is a link between this Chinese agent and Jensen's contribution to the pressure that enabled this to happen. Again, I think this was going to happen anyway. For example, Jensen donated $20 million to Donald Trump’s White House Hall Fund.
And here many people say, "Oh, Kevin, you know, but public companies donate to fund the hall." The response is: "Yes, absolutely, but they are funding the hall with their own money to get benefits from Trump."
Invitations to China, for example, or access to China, whatever it may be.
回应是:“是的,绝对如此,但他们是用自己的钱来资助这个大厅,以便从Trump那里获得好处。”比如受邀去中国,或者获得进入中国的渠道,诸如此类。
The response is: "Yes, absolutely, but they are funding the hall with their own money to get benefits from Trump." Invitations to China, for example, or access to China, whatever it may be .
我有敞口,对AMD和Nvidia都有相对较小的敞口。我在195左右卖出了大量Nvidia股票,因为我卖掉了一项大额资产,需要为此缴一些税,因此有一些折旧回收。我完全没问题。但这两只我都喜欢。实际上,我认为它们都非常便宜。
I have exposure, a relatively small exposure to both AMD and Nvidia. I sold a lot of Nvidia shares at around 195 because I had to pay some taxes on a large asset that I sold, and therefore I had some depreciation recovery.
I'm perfectly fine. But I love them both. Actually, I think they are both very cheap.
但真正拥有更高“精英级”利润率的,是Nvidia。Nvidia现在的交易价格实际上便宜得多。Nvidia目前的估值大约是AMD的一半,这简直离谱。
But the one that actually has more "elite" profit margins is Nvidia. Nvidia is actually trading at a much cheaper price now. Nvidia is trading at roughly half the valuation of AMD , which is insane.
5090显卡的价值也在持续上涨。我在2900和4900的价位买了一套5090显卡,现在它们的交易价格大约在7500美元。这是我10月5日说的。我很确定现在正逼近1万到1.1万美元,这真是太离谱了。
The value of 5090 cards also continues to rise. I bought a set of 5090 cards at 2900 and 4900, and now they are trading at around $7500. That was what I said on October 5th. I'm pretty sure it's now approaching $10,000 to $ 11,000, which is really ridiculous.
但原因是,你确实可以使用这些5090显卡。他们也有Blackwall 6000显卡,但你可以用这些5090显卡来跑Qwen模型。
But the reason is that you can literally use these 5090 cards . They also have Blackwall 6000 cards, but you can use these 5090 cards for Qwen models.
如果你看Nvidia的财务数据,那利润率,我真不愿这么说,好得惊人。这就是他们在这里运营的利润率;这是他们年报中的总利润。
If you look at Nvidia's financial data, the profit margins, I hate to say it, are amazingly good. These are the margins they operate on here; this is their total profit in their annual report.
事实上,通胀前的价格是4.99美元。不过,72.1除以96.2,我算出的利润率大约是75%。因此,他们的利润率比AMD高出大约50%。
In fact, the price was $4.99 before inflation. However, 72.1 divided by 96.2, I got profit margins of about 75% . Therefore, they have profit margins that are approximately 50% higher than AMD.
现在的理论是,AMD做很多小型PC,其数据中心业务相比Nvidia仍然很小,所以他们会在利润率上追赶上来,因为AMD有更大的定价权空间可以争取。
Now, the theory is that AMD does a lot of small PCs and its exposure to data centers is still very small compared to Nvidia, and that's why they will catch up in profit margins, where there is greater pricing power to be achieved at AMD.
在我看来,你买入这一整个组合的一部分,就能同时获得Nvidia和AMD的敞口,这个组合大概包括,我想我们目前大约有33只股票,差不多这个数。
In my opinion, you buy a portion of this entire basket, and then you get exposure to Nvidia and AMD, a basket that probably includes, I think we are at around 33 stocks currently or thereabouts.
所以,Nvidia大约占90%。这不对。我不该说它是一小部分。它占数据中心的62.8%。所以,这又是一个例子,说明Nvidia在数据中心敞口上大约领先50%。
So, Nvidia represents about 90%. This is not true. I shouldn't call it a small part. It constitutes 62.8% of data centers. So, this is another instance where Nvidia is about 50% ahead in data center exposure there.
就像Nvidia,它已经被认为是便宜的了。人们在想,万一他离婚了或者出点什么事呢?这基本上就是整个全球经济,而我们是建立在黄仁勋妻子的《愤怒的小鸟》基础之上的。
Like Nvidia, which is already considered cheap. people are wondering, well, what if he gets divorced or something? This is essentially the entire global economy and we are built on Jensen's wife's "Angry Birds" foundation here.
事实是,即使她随着时间推移卖掉所有股份,我认为她最终更可能陷入与麦肯齐·斯科特类似的情况——麦肯齐在贝索斯做了那些事之后与他离婚,最终接受了他们财富的25%。
The truth is, even if she gets rid of all her shares over time, I think it's more likely that she'll end up in a situation similar to MacKenzie Scott, where MacKenzie divorced Bezos after Bezos, you know, did some things. She ended up accepting 25% of their wealth .
我不知道黄仁勋的妻子是否也会这样做,我们也不知道他们最终是否会离婚。有些人会忽视这一点,希望他们能解决分歧。看来他们没有婚前协议,这一点很重要,因为尽管英伟达是在他们结婚前创立的,但有些人认为婚前协议对婚后创造的东西不起作用。
I don't know if Jensen's wife will do that too, and we also don't know if they will end up getting divorced. Some will overlook this and hope that they can resolve their differences.
It appears they do not have a prenuptial agreement, which is important because, although Nvidia was founded before their marriage, some believe that a prenuptial agreement will not matter for things created after marriage.
既然没有婚前协议,而且他们住在加州,加州会非常同情黄仁勋的妻子,我必须说她应该得到50%。这大约相当于英伟达1.35%的股份。
Since that doesn't exist and they are in California, which would be very sympathetic to Jensen's wife, I must say she deserves 50%. This would be equivalent to approximately 1.35% of Nvidia's shares.
重要的是人们会不会对黄仁勋有不同看法?人们会不会说:“哦,黄仁勋爱上了一个中国间谍?他没有资格当领导者。他会被赶走。”
What matters is whether people will view Jensen differently? Will people say, "Oh, Jensen fell in love with a Chinese spy? He is not qualified to be a leader. He will be expelled.
我的看法是,没有办法让他被解雇。他创立了这家公司。他靠自己的努力创办了它,几乎破产。我的意思是,他把一切都投入到了这家公司。我看不出他会离开。
My opinion is that there is no way to get him fired. He founded this company. He started it with his own effort and almost went bankrupt. I mean, he put everything into this company. I don't see him going anywhere.
我能想象洛丽拿走她的股份离开吗?是的,当然。同样在英伟达工作的儿子斯宾塞和麦迪逊会离开吗?不,大概率不会。同样,英特尔CEO在2018年6月与一位也在英特尔工作的人有过恋爱关系。
他最终被解雇了,但他的职业生涯一直在英特尔。他不是英特尔的创始人之一。所以,我看不出黄仁勋会离开。
Can I imagine Laurie taking her shares and leaving? Yes, of course. Will Spencer and Madison, the sons who also work at Nvidia, leave? No, probably not. Similarly, the CEO of Intel had a romantic relationship in June 2018 with someone who also worked at Intel.
He ended up being fired, but he was spending his career at Intel. He was not one of the founders of Intel. So, I don't see Jensen going anywhere.
我的意思是,是的,这对黄仁勋来说是一个污点,但对我来说,我会认为说“哦,就这样吧。我要在英伟达市盈率0.6的时候卖掉所有股票吗?”是合理的吗?不,我认为那太过分了。
I mean, yes, this is a stain on Jensen, but to me, do I think it's justifiable to say, "Oh, that's it. Am I going to sell all my Nvidia stock while it's trading at a P/E ratio of 0.6?" No, I think that's overkill.
我认为这,你知道,会改变英伟达的轨迹吗?或者,也许这会导致民主党人进行更多调查,尽管某种形式的调查已经在进行了。
Do I think this, you know, changes anything about Nvidia's trajectory? Or , maybe it's going to lead to more investigations by the Democrats, even though they were already underway in some form.
既然事情已经公开,你知道,人们会非常怀疑黄仁勋再次这样做,我认为黄仁勋要再次这样做会非常困难。
Now that it's out in the open , you know, there's going to be so much doubt about Jensen doing this again, that I think it's going to be very difficult for Jensen to do it again.
现在,在隔夜交易中,英伟达的股价下跌了约3.5%。我的看法是,这听起来可能像老生常谈,但因为这个原因,任何下跌都买入。
Now, in overnight trading, Nvidia's stock is down about 3.5 percent. My take on this, it might sound like a broken record, but buy on any dip because of this .
这是AI的衰落吗?这是,你知道,英伟达或黄仁勋的终结吗?不。
Is this the fall of AI? Is this , you know, the end for Nvidia or Jensen? No.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 40 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。