$NVDA · Schwab Network · 2026-11-09
Nvidia 董事会对 CEO Jensen Huang 的调查以及围绕他的政治审视,加剧了市场对 AI 融资的担忧,且不会在一天内解决;他怀疑从 10 月高点下跌逾 20% 并非源于泄密,而更像是资金撤出芯片板块的轮动。Huang 是否被免职或辞职是一个悬而未决的问题,他不认为短期内会有答案,因此长期看多者需要时间等待消息平息,并将敞口布局到 12 月 18 日,而非期待快速解决。
逐段跳播
受领导层争议影响,Nvidia 股价今天继续承压。公司董事会已对 CEO 黄仁勋展开调查。而就在此时,他承认与一名被怀疑为中国从事间谍活动的女子有婚外情。
Nvidia shares continue to be under pressure today amid a leadership controversy. The company's board has launched an investigation against CEO Jensen Huang. This comes at a time when he has admitted to having an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of spying for China.
Nvidia 董事会表示,没有理由认为国家安全或公司机密会遭到泄露。特朗普总统支持黄仁勋继续担任 CEO,而黄仁勋则向妻子、家人和公司道了歉。
Nvidia's board said it had no reason to believe that national security or company confidentiality would be violated. While President Trump supported Huang's continued role as CEO , Huang apologized to his wife, family, and the company.
这场争议加剧了 Nvidia 近期的问题,其股价已较 10 月高点下跌超过 20%。在今天的情况出现之前,人们对 AI 热潮资金支持的担忧就已经在加剧。
The controversy has compounded Nvidia's recent problems, as the share price has fallen more than 20 percent from its October high. Concerns about the funding of the AI oom were already growing before today's situation.
我的问题是,这只股票在 10 月 6 日达到 243 美元,那是 4 到 5 周前,然后就那样暴跌了,人们一定想知道为什么会这样。
My question is, the stock reached $243 on October 6 , which was 4-5 weeks ago, and then it crashed like this, people must be wondering why this happened.
这让我觉得,可能有人事先就知道了这件事,或者有一些风声或消息泄露,因为 Nvidia 没有理由这样走。现在,关于黄仁勋的问题有很多讨论,比如个人面临的风险和公司面临的风险,因为 Nvidia 就意味着黄仁勋。
This leads me to believe that someone may have known this in advance, or there was some whispering or news leaked, because there was no reason for Nvidia to act this way. Now, there's a lot of discussion about the Jensen Huang issue , such as the risk to the individual and the risk to the company, because Nvidia means Jensen Huang.
我对 Nvidia 的领导层模式了解不多,但他将面临董事会和政界人士的严格审视,而政治层面的审视可能比董事会更严厉。
I don't know much about Nvidia's leadership model , but he will face intense scrutiny from his board and from politicians , and political scrutiny may be worse than the board.
所以,这不是一天就能解决的问题。这需要时间,而面对真相对黄仁勋来说是个好的开始,但他将不得不面对压力。
So, this is not a problem that will be solved in a day. It will take time and facing the truth is a good start for Jensen Huang, but he will have to face the pressure.
想想那些新上任的政界人士。他们会想与他接触、与他见面。有传言称他已经接到传唤去作证。这件事不会这么快解决。所以,从真相开始是个好主意,但对 Nvidia 来说这将是一条漫长的路。
Think of all the new politicians. They will want to engage with him and meet him. There are rumors that he has already been called to testify. This matter will not be resolved so quickly.
So, starting with the truth is a great idea, but it's going to be a long road for Nvidia.
我读了那份道歉,也读了一些报道,就算不是全部,这也让人想起那次行程,他们不得不在半路把黄仁勋接回来。这背后有很多不同的层面。
I've read the apology, some of the reports, if not all of them, and you know, it reminds us of that trip where they had to pick up Jensen Huang halfway through. There are many different layers behind this.
事实上,我反对有人事先知情的说法,因为不只是 Nvidia,过去四五周里很多其他公司也下跌了。所以,芯片板块已经彻底崩了,而且过去一周还进一步加速下跌。所以我认为,这可能是资金从芯片板块轮动出去,也许是因为人们认为民主党要上台了,对吧?
这可能导致对 AI 基础设施建设的更多管控,对吧?这可能对这些公司未来的销售造成负面影响。
In fact, I'm against the theory that someone knew something , because not only Nvidia, but many other companies have fallen in the last four or five weeks. So, the chip sector has completely collapsed and it has accelerated further in the past week.
So I think it was maybe a sector rotation out of the chip sector , maybe because of the perception that the Democrats were going to come into power, right? This might lead to more control over the construction of AI infrastructure , right?
This could negatively impact the future sales of these companies.
所以,这可能就是我们看到的较历史高点下跌 27% 的原因。我认为投资者想得到答案的问题是:是的,他们的董事会,也就是 Nvidia 的董事会,正在调查,对吗?这似乎合乎逻辑。事实上,黄仁勋可能和他们所有人都是朋友,对吧?
So, this could be the reason for the 27% decline we saw from the all-time high. I think the question investors want answered is, yes, their board, that is, Nvidia's board, is investigating, is that right ?
Seems logical. In fact, Jensen Huang is probably a friend to all of them, right?
现在,有传言和猜测称他今天可能被传唤去作证。与他有过关系的那名女子接触可能带来什么后果?他的手机是否曾在那名女子所在、而他不在场的地方?我是说,这类事情,因为他与科技行业的其他领导者、政府以及投资者都有往来,然后你还得想想他那些话:“我们需要允许高端芯片在中国销售。”
或者他反复说过这话,但他也强调,我们的业绩中不包括任何对华销售,因为我们对这项技术有一系列规定。
Now, there are rumors and speculation that he could be called to testify today. What could be the consequences of contacting the woman he was in a relationship with? And was his phone ever in a place where that woman was without him?
I mean, these kinds of things, because he has relationships with other leaders in the tech sector , administrations, and investors , and then you have to think about those comments of his: "We need to allow high-end chips to be sold in China."
Or he has said it repeatedly, but he also emphasized that none of our results include any sales to China , because we have a number of regulations on this technology.
即使在获得销售 H200 的批准之后,Nvidia 也没有报告任何在中国的销售。现在的问题是,这些芯片是否运到了中国?也许运到了,但目前我们并不确定。
Even after receiving approval to sell the H200, Nvidia has not reported any sales in China. Now the question is, are the chips reaching China? Maybe it is arriving, but we don't know for sure at this point.
所以,这将是一个长期的过程,你得想想——我认为投资者心里也在琢磨——他会被撤换吗?董事会会换掉他吗?还是他自己会辞职?这些大概都是需要回答的问题,但我不认为这会在短期内发生。
So, this is going to be a long-term process and you have to think—I think this is also working in the minds of investors—will he be removed? Will the board change him? Or will he resign himself ?
These are probably questions that need to be answered, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.
当然,尤其是因为董事会的调查仍在进行中。我确信政府层面也在进行监控和调查,因为有指控称他是间谍。我分析过这个问题,如果你长期看好Nvidia,你首先需要的是时间。你需要时间冷静下来。
现在,如果消息面出现反转,Nvidia可能会小幅或大幅偏离这个价格。很难确切说会怎样,但如果你是在寻找长期机会,我会等到12月18日。
Of course, especially since the board's investigation is ongoing. I'm sure there's surveillance and investigation going on at the government level as well, because there are allegations that he's a spy.
I've analyzed the issue and if you're optimistic about Nvidia in the long term, the first thing you need is time. You need time to calm down. Now, if the news turns around, Nvidia may move slightly or significantly away from this price.
It's hard to say exactly, but if you're looking for something long-term, I'd take until December 18th.
Tom和Diane,距离12月18日还有39天。也许这还不够,但这笔交易给了我39天。我看到预期波动大约在28.5到28.70之间。我们把它凑整到30美元或25美元,随你选。实际上它就在中间。
所以我看到的是买入180行权价、卖出205行权价。我对Nvidia做了一个25美元的多头看涨垂直价差。
Tom and Diane, I have 39 days until December 18th. Maybe it's not enough, but this trade is giving me 39 days. I saw the expected move around 28.5 to 28.70. Let's round it up to $30 or $25, whichever you prefer.
It is actually in the middle. So what I saw was buying at the 180 strike and selling at the 205 strike. I made a long call vertical on Nvidia for $25.
现在大约需要8美元的净支出,虽然这笔交易的成本稍高一些,但它给了你赚取25美元的机会。如果你的8美元净支出能达到25美元,那将带来超过三倍的利润。所以,这类交易的优势之一就是它给了你时间和稳定性。
说到盈亏平衡点,如果你支付8美元,这笔交易的净支出对应的盈亏平衡点是188美元。
It is now about $8 debit, although the trade is a bit higher, but it gives you an opportunity for $25. If your $8 debit reaches $25, it will yield more than three times the profit.
So, one of the advantages of this type of trading is that it gives you time and stability. And speaking of break even, if you pay $8 , the debit for this trade will be $188.
Tom,在这类交易中,我只是想从看涨立场中获得时间,理解预期波动,并创建一个垂直价差,让我有时间等一切尘埃落定。
Tom, in this type of trade, I just wanted time from the bullish position, understanding the expected movement and creating a vertical spread that would give me time for everything to settle down.
是的,我们来分析一下这件事。在Kevin的这个交易示例中,方向是看涨的。我们用的是12月期权。正如他所说,他给了自己足够的时间。记住,他们下周还有财报。要记住这一点。
Yes, let's analyze the matter. In this trade example from Kevin, the direction is bullish. We are going up to the December option. As he said, he's giving himself enough time for this.
Remember, they also have their earnings report next week. Keep that in mind.
买入12月180行权价的看涨期权,比当前价格高2.50美元。然后卖出205行权价的看涨期权。所以,这是一个25美元宽度的看涨垂直价差。你支付大约8美元的净支出。这笔净支出就是你的风险,大约800美元。
在这种情况下,风险回报比相当不错。如果价格涨到205以上,你可以用800美元的风险赚取最高1700美元的利润。Kevin提到的188美元盈亏平衡点仅比当前股价高6%。
Buying a December 180 strike call, which is $2.50 above the current price. And then sell the 205 strike call. So , a bullish call at $25 is vertical. You are debiting about $8.
This debit is your risk, which is about $800. In this case, the risk-reward ratio is quite good. If it goes above 205, you can make a profit of up to $1,700 by risking $800. The breakeven point of 188 that Kevin mentioned is only 6% above the current share price.
由于期权市场有财报,12月系列合约很可能在28美元上下波动。所以,如果出现上涨到28美元的走势,你将在205水平附近。也许这就是Kevin设置这个行权价的原因,以降低买入看涨180看涨期权的成本。
它们目前的价格约为12美元。而他卖出205行权价的看涨期权。尽管205行权价距离当前价格有28美元,但其当前的外在价值溢价约为3.90美元。所以,Kevin通过卖出205看涨期权来调整买入180看涨期权的成本。
The December series is likely to fluctuate around $28 in either direction due to earnings reports in the options market. So, if there is an upward movement to $28, you will be at around the 205 level.
Perhaps that's why Kevin set this strike to reduce the cost of buying his bullish 180 call. Their current price is about $12. And he is selling the 205 strike call. Even though the 205 strike is $28 away from the current price, its current extrinsic premium is about $3.90.
So, Kevin is adjusting the cost of buying 180 calls by selling 205 calls.
所以,这是一个看涨垂直价差。但我认为主要的是Kevin给了自己足够的时间。而且你不必等到到期日才能退出。如果财报后价格向200上涨,其价值可能升至15、16或20美元。如果市场允许,这让你有机会在到期前平掉全部或部分仓位。
所以,记住这一点。这在交易管理方面提供了一些灵活性。
So, this is a bullish call vertical. But I think the main thing is that Kevin gave himself enough time. And you don't have to wait until the end of the term to get out of it. If the price rises towards 200 after the earnings report , its value could rise to 15, 16 or 20 dollars.
This gives you the opportunity to close all or part of your position before expiration, if the market allows it. So, keep that in mind. This gives some flexibility when it comes to trade management.
Kevin,我对此采取了稍微更被动、且期限短得多的方法。我把截止日期定在本周末,即11月13日的周度期权。如果你认为这次反转意味着Nvidia已经触及170美元。我们已经从盘中低点上涨了超过7美元。
我考虑过卖出一个虚值的中性偏看跌看涨垂直价差,如果你认为该股近期或至少未来四天将区间震荡。我卖出13日当周185看涨期权,这是虚值上行方向,并买入190看涨期权。这个5美元宽度的价差,之前大约在1.40美元交易,现在可能大约在1.20美元。
但你收取的权利金就是你的收入。所以如果我收到1.40美元,即140美元,风险为360美元,我的盈亏平衡点Kevin升至186.40美元。这有相当大的机会,但你的想法是,该股在本周剩余时间将受限。
Kevin, I've taken a slightly more passive and much more short-term approach to this. I took the deadline until the end of the week, the weekly options for November 13th. If you think this turnaround means Nvidia has reached $170.
We are already up more than $7 from the session low. I have considered selling an out-of-the-money neutral to bearish call vertical , if you think the stock will range in the near future or at least for the next four days.
I am selling the 13th weekly 185 call, which is on the out-of-the-money upside, and buying the 190 call. The $5 short range, which was trading around $1.40, is probably now trading at $1.20.
But the credit you are collecting is your income. So if I raise $1.40, meaning $140 , with $360 at risk, my break-even Kevin goes up to $186.40. It has a pretty good chance , but what you're thinking is that the stock will be limited for the rest of the week.
是的,没错。非常短期的交易。目标是做空185-190看涨垂直价差,该价差目前交易在1.40美元左右。这正应了那句话:“记住,空头垂直价差——无论是看涨还是看跌——的巨大效用在于,如果什么都没发生呢?
如果股票保持在这个区间内呢?如果什么都没发生,它就是盈利的。”所以Tom卖出185-190,收取1.40美元,也许略少一些。这只是在说:“我不预期近期会有大的跳跃或重大变化。卖出那些185看涨期权。
加上收取的权利金,不管多少,那就是这笔交易的盈亏平衡点。风险则是从5美元中减去你收取的权利金。”
Yes, that's right. Very short-term trade. Looking to short the 185-190 call vertical which is trading at around $1.40. It's one that says, "Remember, the great utility of a short vertical, whether it's a call or a put , is what if nothing happens?
What if the stock stays within this range? And if nothing happens, it's profitable." So Tom is selling 185-190 , collecting $1.40, maybe a little less than that. It just says, "I don't expect any big leaps or major changes in the near future.
Sell those 185 calls. Add credit to that, whatever it is, that's your break-even on this trade. The risk is to subtract the credit you took from the $5.
是的,而且到期时那个185空头行权价保持虚值的概率约为71%,这正是你想要的,对吧?你希望股价保持在185以下,让这个期权变得一文不值,或者以低于你收取的权利金的价格买回。所以Diane,这对你来说是一个从看中性到看跌的稍微被动的策略,与Kevin的方向性看涨示例相反。
Yes, and you have about a 71% chance that that short 185 strike will be out-of-the-money at expiration, which is what you want, right? You want the stock to stay below 185 and this thing to become worthless or you buy it for less than the credits you collected.
So this is Diane , for you. A slightly passive strategy from neutral to bearish, as opposed to Kevin's directionally bullish example.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 56 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。