$NVDA · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-09
NVDA 遭降级:不再是说话者最看好的买入标的,但仍保留在其前十名之内,并可能随着董事会调查 CEO Jensen Huang 与一名疑似中国间谍的关系而被移出;风险在于 Huang 被迫下台且没有可行的继任者,此前股价下跌 5% 而半导体板块上涨。11 倍市盈率、313 美元的内在价值对比 178 美元、接近 164 美元的 52 周低点,限制了下跌空间。
逐段跳播
我们有一条关于Nvidia股票投资者的重大消息:公司董事会宣布,将调查CEO黄仁勋与一名被情报界认为可能是中国间谍的女性之间的关系。
We have big news for Nvidia stock investors, as the company's board of directors announced it will investigate the relationship between CEO Jensen Huang and the woman the intelligence community believes may be a Chinese spy.
在周日发给员工的备忘录中,Nvidia CEO黄仁勋承认了一段婚外情,向家人和员工道歉,并承诺全面配合董事会的独立审查。
In a memo to employees on Sunday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair, apologizing to his family and employees, and pledging full cooperation with an independent review by the board.
这对Nvidia股票投资者来说是重大且非常负面的消息,包括我自己,因为我持有该股已有一段时间,我对这个消息感到失望。
This is huge and very negative for Nvidia stock investors, including myself as I have owned shares for some time, and I am disappointed by this news.
影响是显著的,衡量方式之一是看今天的股价反应。Nvidia股价因这一消息下跌超过5%,而整个半导体板块却在显著上涨。
The impact is significant, and one way to measure it is to look at today's price reaction. Nvidia's stock fell by more than 5% on this news, while the broader semiconductor sector is experiencing a significant rise.
所以,这本可能是Nvidia股价上涨超过5%的一天,但它反而下跌了超过5%,而这只是衡量这些事件冲击程度的一种方式。
So, this could have been a day when Nvidia's stock rose by more than 5%, but instead it fell by more than 5%, and this is just one way to measure the magnitude of the fallout from these events.
调查仍在进行中,所以目前很多都只是猜测,但风险当然偏向下行。这将很值得关注,而我想知道的是,CEO黄仁勋是否存在任何试图掩盖事情的不当行为。
The investigation is still ongoing, so much of this will be mere speculation at the moment, but the risks are of course tilted to the downside. It will be interesting to see, and what I want to know is whether there has been any misconduct by CEO Jensen Huang to try to cover things up.
在我研究过的此类情况的历史案例中,CEO们曾试图通过隐瞒费用和改动某些东西来掩盖这些婚外情或违反公司政策的事项;如果事实证明黄仁勋为了掩盖这段关系而做出误导性财务报告或改动费用等,这可能就是随之而来的另一个重大事件。
In the historical examples I have studied of such situations, CEOs have tried to cover up these extramarital affairs or matters that violate company policy by concealing expenses and changing certain things; This could be another major event that may follow if it turns out that Jensen Huang has made misleading financial reports or altered expenses, etc., in an attempt to cover up this relationship.
Nvidia CEO黄仁勋对Nvidia的重要性超过他公司任何其他CEO,只有埃隆·马斯克例外,我认为马斯克对Tesla和SpaceX的重要性超过世界上任何公司任何其他CEO。
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is more important to Nvidia than any other CEO of his company, with the exception of Elon Musk, who I believe is more important to Tesla and SpaceX than any other CEO of any company in the world ever.
考虑到他作为创始人给公司增加的价值,以及他在25年里带领公司走到今天的位置,Nvidia CEO的重要性被认为位居世界最重要人物前五或前十之列。
The importance of Nvidia's CEO is considered to be among the top five or ten most important figures in the world, given the value he added to the company as its founder, and his leadership of it to where it is today over the course of 25 years.
因此,我通过观察这些历史案例得出的结论是,大多数情况下CEO会被免职。他们要么辞职,要么被迫辞职。这就是Nvidia在这里面临的重大风险。
Therefore, the consequence I observe by looking at these historical examples is that the CEO is removed in most cases. They will either resign or be forced to resign. This is the big risk here for Nvidia.
既然黄仁勋对公司如此重要,如果他被迫辞职,谁来接替他?公司里没有其他显赫人物可以说:“他们有强有力的替代人选,能够接任领导角色。”我不知道。
Since Jensen Huang is so important to the company, if he is forced to resign, who will replace him? There is no other prominent person in the company about whom it can be said: "Well, they have a strong alternative who can take over the leadership role." I don't know.
但可以说,选择极其有限。你会发现,要替代像黄仁勋这样素质的CEO、以及他在过去几十年为Nvidia取得的成就,是极其困难的。
But it can be said that the options are extremely limited. You will find it extremely difficult to replace a CEO of the quality of Jensen Huang and what he has achieved for Nvidia over the past few decades.
现在,公司的估值本来就已经便宜。Nvidia的远期市盈率处于非常低的两位数。这对投资者来说是一个积极方面,即该股的下行空间有限,因为估值已经便宜。
Now, the company's valuation was already cheap. Nvidia was trading a forward price to earnings, you know, at a very low double-digit number. This is a positive aspect for investors, which is that the downside of the stock is limited because the valuation is already cheap.
目前市盈率仅为11倍。这是Nvidia股价触及很长时间以来最低价的时候。因此,估值实际上是便宜的。这应该会限制部分负面风险。
The price-to-earnings ratio is only 11 at the moment. This is when Nvidia's stock hit its lowest price in a very long time. Therefore, the valuation is actually cheap. This should limit some of those negative risks.
至于Nvidia,如果黄仁勋被迫辞职或被董事会解雇,我认为下行空间不会接近那些水平。即使我用贴现现金流模型来看估值,该股的内在价值也是313美元。今天下跌5%后,当前市价为178美元。
所以,该股似乎仍被显著低估。这应该会降低下行风险,但这仍然是一个重大负面事件。
As for Nvidia, I don't think the downside is close to those levels if Jensen Huang is forced to resign or is fired by the board. Even when I look at the valuation using the discounted cash flow model, the intrinsic value of the stock is $313.
The current market price is $178 after a 5% drop today. So again, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued. This should reduce the downside risks, but it remains a major negative event.
这是一个可能糟糕、可怕或灾难性的事件。这些结果没有一个是好的。作为撰稿人,看到这个消息以及这一事件的发展,我非常失望。
This is an event that could be bad, terrible, or catastrophic. None of these results will be good. As a contributor, I am very disappointed to see this news and the developments in this story.
再次强调,Nvidia股价目前接近52周最低水平164美元。当前市价为177美元。再次强调,非常接近52周最低水平。这限制了这里的下行空间,而且与内在价值相比,该股似乎也被显著低估。
Once again, Nvidia's stock is trading near its lowest level in 52 weeks, which was $164. The current market price is $177. Once again, very close to its lowest level in 52 weeks.
This limits the downside here and compared to the intrinsic value, the stock also appears to be significantly undervalued.
那么,说了这么多,我对Nvidia的评级打算怎么办?如果你不知道的话,Nvidia一直被评为你现在可以买入的最佳股票。她刚刚发布了一个视频,大概是在这个消息爆出前几天。我相信我发布视频是在周五或周四,再次提醒投资者,我认为Nvidia是现在最值得买入的股票。
So, having said all this, what am I going to do about my rating of Nvidia? If you didn't know, Nvidia has been ranked as the best stock you can buy right now. She had just released a video, probably a few days before this news broke.
I believe it was a Friday or a Thursday when I released the video, reminding investors once again that I believe Nvidia is the best stock to buy right now.
这条消息之后我打算怎么做?我将下调 Nvidia 的股票评级。我不再认为它是目前最值得买入的股票。我已经把它从名单中移除。
What am I going to do after this news? I will be downgrading Nvidia's stock rating. I no longer think it's the best stock to buy right now. I have removed it from the list.
我仍然把 Nvidia 的股票保留在前十名单中,但如果进一步调查、了解到更多细节之后 Nvidia 跌出前十,我也不会感到意外。
I still keep Nvidia's stock in the top 10 list, but I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia dropped out of the top ten after further investigation and learning more details.
再说一次,这是重要消息,因为它带来了这样一种风险:Nvidia CEO 黄仁勋可能不得不放弃他在公司的领导职位。这就是我看到的巨大危险。因此,我下调 Nvidia 的股票评级,把它保留在前十名单中,但将其从最值得买入股票名单的首位移除。
Again, this is important news because of the risk it creates of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang potentially having to relinquish his leadership role in the company. This is the great danger I see.
Therefore, I am downgrading Nvidia's stock rating, keeping it in the top ten, but removing it from the top of the best stock to buy list.
Nvidia 定于11月17日公布季度财报。它本来就是本季最受期待的财报之一,而这条消息让它变得更加重要。事实上,这或许使它成为今年最重要的财报发布,甚至可能是过去几年里最重要的。
Nvidia is scheduled to announce its quarterly financial results on November 17. It was already one of the most anticipated earnings results of the season, and this news makes it even more important.
In fact, it makes it perhaps the biggest earnings announcement of the year, and possibly of several years past.
投资者会想知道这件事的影响。他们会向 CEO 提问。CEO 可能会在开场发言中就调查及其对业务的影响等发表一些评论。无论如何,这都将是一件大事。
Investors will want to know the implications of this. They will be asking the CEO questions. The CEO may make some comments about the investigation and its impact on the business, etc., in his opening remarks. It will be a huge event by all accounts.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 25 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。