$NVDA · Schwab Network · 2026-11-10
NVDA 面临关键人物风险——若 CEO Jensen Huang 被替换；同时面临监管风险，涉及据称故意规避制裁、将 GPU 运往中国一事，预计该调查将非常漫长。股价近期走低，但交易表现让人对市场能否承受领导层变动有一定信心，因为并无明确的继任者；市场认为其被免职的概率约为 15%。
逐段跳播
这简直像肥皂剧。Diane，我可以这么跟你说，这里每一刻都有大量事情在发生。我们知道，CEO Jensen Juan 确实承认了与一名疑似中国间谍有染，现在不仅有 Nvidia 董事会在调查，FBI 也在调查这件事。
It's like a soap opera. I can tell you that, Diane. It's a lot happening every single moment here. We know that CEO Jensen Juan did uh admit to an affair with a potential Chinese spy and there now is a investigation not only by the Nvidia board but also the FBI is looking into this as well.
特朗普总统昨天在新闻发布会上确实提到了这件事。指控称，Nvidia 将大约 24 万块 H100、H200 以及 A100 GPU 运入中国，或者运往新加坡，以便中国能够使用这些芯片。
这就是 FBI 针对这名疑似中国间谍提出的指控。
President Trump did bring that up yesterday during a press conference. The allegation is that Nvidia moved around 240,000 H100s, H200's as well as A100 GPUs into China or sent them over to Singapore in order for China to be able to utilize those.
That's the allegation that's being brought against this potential Chinese spy by the FBI here.
所以，这需要花一些时间。显然，我们看到股价在过去几个交易日里有所下跌。目前存在两种不同类型的风险。一个是关键人物风险。Dan Ives 今早在一篇帖子里已经大致指出了这一点。如果 Jensen Wong 被替换掉 CEO 职位，我们会不会看到股价进一步下跌？
So, this is going to take a little bit of time. Obviously, we are seeing the shares moving a little bit lower here over the last couple of trading sessions. There's kind of two different type of risk that is out there right now.
It's keyman risk. Dan Ives already kind of highlighted that in a post this morning. Could we see moves to the downside even further if Jensen Wong were to be replaced as CEO?
然后还有监管方面的风险，或者说潜在风险，即如果存在故意或明知故犯地试图规避制裁，以便让中国获得这些访问权限，那就可能构成违反制裁。
And then you also have the regulatory or potential uh risk of violating sanctions if there was willfully or knowingly trying to evade sanctions in order to give China these this access.
不过，我预计这将是一场非常漫长的调查。目前看来，特朗普总统是站在 Jensen Wong 这一边的。所以，我们看看这是否真的会在某种程度上影响政治层面。
Though I would expect that this is going to be a very long investigation. It seems like President Trump right now is on Jensen Wong's side. So, we'll see if that actually kind of plays into some of the politics.
如果没有，我的意思是，我们昨天看到的 Nvidia 以及一些其他股票的走势，实际上给了你多一点信心，让我们觉得如果 Nvidia 的领导层真的出现变动，市场或许能够撑得住，因为不幸的是，我们并没有一个明确的继任者来接替他的职位。
And if not, I mean, some of that the trading action that we saw yesterday out of Nvidia going into some of these other names was actually a little bit gave you a little bit more confidence that the market maybe could be able to sustain itself if we do see a shakeup in leadership when it comes to Nvidia because unfortunately we don't have a clear successor uh to his role.
这也是 Dan IV 在报告里提到的其中一点。他说，目前市场人士和投资者的议论认为，他被免去 CEO 职位的概率大约是 15%，而大概率——基本上是从这一点外推——他会继续留任，但显然他必须通过董事会的调查。
And that's one of the things that Dan IV said in his note uh as well. He says right now the street and investor chatter is assigning a roughly 15% chance he's removed as CEO with a high probability essentially the uh extrapolation from there that he would stay on as but obviously he has to clear a board investigation.
有人呼吁他到国会作证。FBI 正在调查。股东们也很愤怒。不过他仍在担任 CEO，所以因为这项调查，他们实际上并没有停掉他的职位，也没有中止他的日常工作。
There's calls for him to come before Congress. FBI investigating. You got uh shareholders angry as well. He's still acting as the CEO though, so they have not actually kind of stopped his position and halted his day-to-day activities because of the investigation.
我认为这也说明了一些问题。我就把这个提出来说说，董事会本可以走一条完全不同的路，基本上就是暂停他的职务，直到调查结束。通常在这种事件中我们看到的正是这种做法。但这一次并非如此。
I think that also does kind of signal something as well. Just to kind of throw that out there, the board could have went a completely different route and and basically suspended him in his role until the investigation was done.
That's usually what we do see in events like this. That's just not the case this time around.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 52 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。