$NVDA · Financial Education · 2026-11-09

It seemed like almost every stock was having a good day today except one. One and only Nvidia. Nvidia down 9% the past year. Down again here today. It seems like it's the only stock that can't go up, man. Nvidia.

Okay, in video we're going to talk seriously about the stock. Obviously, it was in the news all weekend with the scandal, right? Um, we'll talk about if this stock is an opportunity or not and kind of my views on this now at this point in time.

Invoid stock. Okay, you know, listen, it's a very serious subject. Listen, listen, listen. Obviously, you guys heard the news, right? Um, you know, big cheating scandal out of Invettia, right?

The the main the main thing that made this one kind of a crazy situation is, you know, from what we're hearing, it was a Chinese spy. Like Jensen Jensen didn't just cheat or, you know, he's in a marriage, right?

So, we don't even know if it's cheating, right? Like that's between those two individuals. And what goes on behind closed doors is what goes on. You know what? I'm not going to push whatever my agenda is on them.

Um neither should you. Like, you know, I'm not going to judge them. Like, I don't know if they're in a traditional marriage or they're not. It's none of my business. It's none of your freaking business.

Okay? Um that's between them. And so, at the end of the day, it's really a situation that's nobody's business um other than those two individuals. It's not even their kids' business.

Their kids are grown adults. This is between those two individuals. in um whatever Jensen's been allowed or not allowed to do over the years is that's between them, right? So, the whole situation is because of a Chinese spy.

Now, people are saying, well, Jensen's been very vocal about uh he wants to sell more. He wants to sell his chips to China, right? So, that means this this woman he was with like infiltrated his mind.

Um Jenzen's a businessman. If he sells to China, he makes massively more money. This is not complicated. This is not rocket science. Like, everybody should want to sell at China because you're going to make dramatically more money.

Like, if he was allowed to sell in China, Nvidia's revenues would be dramatically higher than where they're at right now. The margins would be even higher because that would put a demand for a new customer.

They can't even get their high-end chips right now. China can't, right? The earnings per share would be dramatically higher. And honestly, probably the valuation of Nvidia would be at least 20% higher than where it is right now.

So, that's my take on this. they're going to do an investigation, all these sorts of things, and blah blah blah. And that's going to be what that's going to be. Now, there's a fear, there's a couple fears out there.

One is a fear that um Jensen's wife could divorce him and then sell massive position in in Nvidia stock and it puts a huge seller in the market, right?

That to me is a silly one. That that to me is silly. Here's why. Okay. One, we don't even know if she's going to divorce him. Like once again, who knows what goes on behind closed doors.

Okay. Two, Jensen's actually doesn't own that much of Nvidia. He owns actually a very small percentage of Nvidia's whole business. That's why his net worth isn't higher. Believe me, if Jensen owned a bigger percent, he'd be the richest man in the world or by far the richest.

Jensen's actually, you know, considering he has the most valuable company in the world. um his net worth is is you know literally like almost nothing compared to like if you compare it versus Elon Musk and um you know Jeff Bezos and people like that and so he owns a very small percent so even if she divorced him got a massive amount of shares it would actually be a very small sell from her and that would and when they do if she was to do this and she was to sell that could potentially be years from now and they don't just go and say oh I'm going to dump you know 1% % of the company all on the same day or something.

It's a sell over time and honestly you could offset that with a buyback easily like it's not like it's a huge percentage. So anybody fearful that that situation is going to devastate Nvidia stock is just not very educated on the math around this and how these these processes work.

Right? So that that's first thing to understand. Second thing people are really scared about now is Jensen getting pushed out of Nvidia or fired from Nvidia. Okay, listen. Why would they want to do this?

Okay, why why would they want to do this, right? Like he is the key man at that company. Um he still got it, right? He's doing an amazing job running the company. And so if this was a situation where Jensen had was like falling off and like you know they were way behind their competitors and things like that then I could see them actually I could see the board of directors using this as an opportunity to get Jensen out essentially.

But the board of directors doesn't want Jensen out. The investor base doesn't want Jensen out. Remember who runs the company? It's the investors. Investors run the company at the end of the day.

Why? They're the ones that vote in the board of directors. The board of directors are who decides who's going to be the big dog leading the company. And so at the end of the day, it all comes back to the investors.

I don't know an investor out there of Nvidia that's like, "Oh, I want Jensen gone." No, come on, man.

And so, you know, if you look at the probability markets, you know, there's basically about a 25%ish chance they're saying that Jensen leaves Nvidia in the next year, whether he's fired or voluntarily leaves.

I would put it probably a little bit less. I would say about a 20% odds. um that he's out of Nvidia in the next year or so. Um very low probability, much higher probability Jensen still working for Nvidia a year from now, two years from now, three years from now and into the future.

Okay, so that's my take on that. Okay, next up here, if we're looking at Nvidia stock and we're trying to figure out is this a big buying opportunity, right? It it's it's a very confusing situation because you're looking at Nvidia, the growth rates are insane, right?

Look at the next uh 12-month revenue growth is expected to be 70% plus the the next 12 months earnings per share growth is expected to be almost a double up almost 100%. Right?

Look at the forward P of Nvidia. It's 15 15 and you could say they might come in better than expected. So it might actually be a 14 forward P or 13 forward P. Right? So it's it looks very cheap.

Like if you just know anything about valuing companies, you look at Nvidia and you're like gosh that is a cheap stock.

Right now you got to say, is there any sort of reality for this? Well, look at something very important. We're looking at thousandx.com right now. By the way, this is a search feature on here.

Okay. Look what we have right down here. Do you see what I see? Cuz you look at that and you might say, I see something great. If you're really really into the stock market, like I've been in the stock market 18 years, you actually see a problem here.

Look at that. Revenue less than hundred billion last quarter. But look at the net profit, almost $60 billion. That means this company's net margins are 60% plus. Now, if you're, you know, newer to the stock market, but you're like a little educated, you're enough educated to even understand what a net margin is, right?

But you're not educated enough to like be playing this game for a long, long time. You might see a 60% plus net margins and think, "This is the best news ever. This is amazing.

This is great news. This is like awesome." I look at that and I see an issue. I see a company that's likely way over earning right now and those are not sustainable long-term numbers.

No, you can say, well, what if we had, you know, like like is that really unsustainable? Yes. It's so ridiculous it's out of control. Okay, look at a company like Salesforce. Now, Salesforce sells software.

They don't even manufacture really like physical products like a company like Nvidia does, right? CRM has higher gross margins than than Nvidia. 77% versus 75% for Nvidia, right?

But look at a company like Salesforce's net margins versus a company like Nvidia. Nvidia's 60% plus net margins while a company like Salesforce a SAS company a top tier SAS company at that right led by Benoff is at 22%.

Now keep in mind Nvidia is going to have plenty of room to move up those net margins over the next few years as they sell more and more high-end GPUs and as the CPU demand continues to pour in over the next two or three years, right?

But the moral of the story is here, Nvidia is just in its own like stratosphere right now and they can get away with it because every big tech company out there is willing to pay any price for these chips, right?

That's not a long-term sustainable thing, but it is what the situation is right now.

Okay? So, keep in mind these 60% plus net margins you're seeing right now, it's not realistic for the long term, right?

Okay. Now, look at uh Nvidia's normal net margins. Nvidia's normal net margins were 20 to 30%. Which are amazing top tier margins. Like you can bring in 20 to 30%ish net margins over time. You're a beast as a company.

Hold on. Landscapers are here. Now look at what has happened to Nvidia's margins, right? Look at this. Win 55% 60% 63% here recently, right? That's just out of control over earning.

And that's what happens when you know you can literally get whatever price you want cuz companies are just in like this cycle of like they're willing to spend whatever.

Right now, it's very important I explain this next part because this matters a lot in understanding these sorts of stocks when you're going through a moment like this and what type of investor base is interested in that particular stock and it's very important you understand this.

This is a very high level subject we're about to go into here. So, I hope you really enjoy this part. Okay, I want to explain deceleration cycles to you. Okay. Now, if you're new to the stock market, you might hear deceleration cycle, and you might think that means a company's revenues are going down.

No, a deceleration cycle is when the growth rate is less and less impressive over time. So, it's like I was growing my revenue 200% and then it went down to 100% growth. That's still amazing, but it's still I'm decelerating the revenue growth, right?

I'm not like going from 20% revenue growth to 40% to 80% to 160% to 320%.

Right? So if we look at Nvidia here, right, they're go they're they're started their deceleration cycle now at this point in time, right? Now they're still going to be growing at a rapid rate for at least the next we can call a year or so, but at the end of the day, they're going through a deceleration cycle.

Now, when a company is going through a deceleration cycle, it's very hard to attract growth investors. Okay, growth investors like to look at stocks that either about to go through an acceleration cycle on revenue or have already started an acceleration cycle when it comes to their revenue, they don't like to touch

So, the folks that get attracted to a stock like an Nvidia when it's at a 13 forward PE and they're looking and like their growth rates are still great and yeah, their growth is decelerating, but that's fine, right? Those are value investors.

And so for a stock like Nvidia, it's hard to get a rerating of that PE ratio and forward PE ratio because at the end of the day, the growth investors are like mah, we're good. And the value investors are like it's cheap, but if I really want it cheap, I could just go micron cuz micron's not afford, right?

People believe they can see the top in Nvidia. They believe they can see the top in Micron in the memory chip stocks. We don't know where the top is for AMD. It's limitless right now.

It's just accelerating and accelerating and accelerating, right?

The way I would view Nvidia is I'd view Nvidia as, you know, once we can understand better about the long-term growth rates and margins of Nvidia, I think it's I think it will be a buy at that point in time.

I don't think it's certainly not a bad stock. It's just in a tough place right now because honestly I don't think anybody really understands where Nvidia's long-term revenue growth is, what their long-term margins are, what their long-term earnings per share are.

We understand likely what the next 12 to 18 months is for Nvidia, but I don't think anybody could tell me confidently are Nvidia's revenues growing 3 years from now. I don't think anybody can confidently say yes or no.

Nvidia is like a real question. Like I don't know. I know they're going to grow revenues a lot over the next year, but 3 years from now, I don't know because there's a high probability the companies will start cutting capex by that point in time, right?

or at least moderating it and AMD becomes a bigger and bigger chunk out of the pie at that particular time, right?

And then it's like could Nvidia's revenues go down a few years from now or maybe they're growing in single digits or are they still growing in double like we just it's too cloudy right now.

And then if you add on top of the Jensen situation on top it just adds more cloudiness on top of Nvidia, right?