$NVO · The Investor's Podcast · 2026-10-31
看多 NVO：其前瞻市盈率约 12 倍——仅为标普 20 多倍市盈率的一半，而礼来为 24 倍——大部分坏消息已被计入。基准情形为中个位数盈利增长加上 4.5% 股息率，五年内年化回报 8–9%（含股息最高 10%）；若口服减肥药和处于三期的 amiritin 在 2028 年前成功，重估后回报可达 18–22%。他不指望明年翻倍，并提到 Medicare 定价、专利到期/仿制药、指引下调至 2030 年以及价值陷阱/创新风险。
逐段跳播
所以我今天的选择是两年前欧洲市值最高的公司之一。几乎人人都持有它。我不知道你Stig是否持有，但很多人、很多ETF、很多基金都持有这家公司。
So my pick today is one of those companies which two years ago was the most valuable company in Europe. And pretty much everybody owned it. I don't know whether you owned it Stig, but pretty much a lot of people, a lot of ETFs, a lot of funds owned this company.
分析师非常喜欢它。但今天这只股票下跌了40%。从52周高点算起，而且它的交易价格大约是远期盈利的12倍，基本上所有人都在说派对结束了。
The analysts really loved it. But today that stock is down 40%. And from its 52- week high and it's trading roughly around 12 times forward earnings and basically everybody's saying parties over here.
我说的公司是诺和诺德。它是一家丹麦公司。股票代码是NVO。它是Ozempic和Wegovy的生产商。但我喜欢这个选择、或者说我推介它的原因是，这是一家拥有100多年历史的公司。很棒的生意。
The company I'm talking about is Nova Nordisk. Um it's a Danish company. Uh the ticket symbol is NVO. It's the maker of Ozic and VOVI. But the reason I like this pick or I I'm pitching it is it's a company that's 100 plus year old. Great business.
我不会称它为深度价值。我很确定Toby会不同意这是深度价值，但这是一家好公司，其价格假设它是一块正在融化的冰块。
I wouldn't call it as a deep value. I'm I'm pretty sure Toby will disagree that this is a deep value, but it's a good business at a a price that assumes that it's a melting ice cube.
先给不了解的人做个背景介绍：Novo，也就是大家熟知的诺和诺德，做更新疗法已经超过100年了。有一点需要注意：和许多欧洲公司一样，这家公司由一家基金会控股。这让公司的运作逻辑有些不同。
So just for background for those of you who don't know what is Novo as it's known uh has been updetics therapeutics for over 100 years. One of the things to note is this is one of those companies like many of the European companies it's controlled by a foundation. So that makes the dynamics a bit different.
这有点像Meta或者Google，创始人在那里拥有多数投票权，而这里是基金会拥有。这带来了持久力，也带来了长期思维，但同时也带来风险：没有激进投资者或股东能改变公司的方向。所以这是正面也是负面。
It's almost like say meta where or Google where the founders have the majority of the voting rights here the foundation has. So it gives the staying power it gives the long-term thinking but then also it has the risk that no activists or shareholders can change the direction. So that's the positive and negative.
过去，比如从2021年到2025年，他们的销售额年复合增长约19%，盈利也差不多是这个速度；他们当前的营业利润率，或者说我认为当前的营业利润率有所下降，以前大概在50%多，现在降到了40%。但和许多其他竞争对手相比，这仍然很健康。
In the past say from 2021 to 2025 their sales compounded about 19% a year kagger and earnings also about the same rate and their current operating margin or I would say current operating margin has reduced uh it used to be like in the 50s now it has kind of you know reduced to 40%. but is still healthy compared to many other competitors.
我把它看作一家主要专注于肥胖和糖尿病的公司。他们做胰岛素药物已经很久了。但他们的减肥药是过去几年里备受关注的产品。他们算是这个领域的领先者，是GLP1药物这一品类的开创者。但它现在为什么便宜？主要有三个原因。
And I see it as a company that's mainly focused on obesity and diabetes. They have been making insulin drugs for a very long time. But their obesity drugs are the one that are uh catching a lot of attention in the past few years.
So they were like the leading there were the creators of this category the GLP1 drugs. But why is it cheap now? Mainly because of three reasons.
第二点是，Medicare谈判价格从明年开始生效。这可能会带来一些利润率压力；而semaglutide的专利，也就是那些都和糖尿病、减重相关的药物专利，在印度、中国、加拿大、巴西和其他国家都已到期。
所以可以预期仿制药很快就会出现。这是他们近期可能面临的另一个利润率压力。
the second thing is the Medicare negotiated prices are kicking in starting next year. So that might put some margin pressure and the semi glutide patents which are all kind of diabetes and weight loss related drugs they all expired in India, China, Canada, Berezil and other countries.
So you can expect that generics will show up soon. So that's the other margin pressure they might be facing in the near term.
第三是公司自己下调了销售指引，而且下调一直延伸到2030年。他们在推进自己的研发管线，但目前的风险是：到2030年，如果他们没能拿出寄望于带来好结果的那些管线产品，他们可能会陷入困境。
And the third is the the company itself guided down the sales and so it's like down up to 2030. They're working on their pipeline but right now that's the risk that by 2030 if they don't have some of the pipeline that they are hoping will bring them good results they might be in trouble.
这就是市场目前计入的预期。市场在定价这个业务已经完了，他们眼下可能拿不出什么好东西。所以我们付出的价格，是基于一个假设：他们无法创新、拿不出新东西。我后面会多讲讲这个“新东西”是什么，以及为什么我们应该关注。
So that's what the market is pricing in. So market is pricing that this franchise is gone. They might not be able to come up with something good at this point of time. So what we are paying for is that um a assumption that they'll not be able to innovate and come up with something new and I'll talk more about what that new is and why we should be watching.
估值方面，就像我说的，是12倍远期市盈率。作为对比，礼来是24倍，只有Fiser处在他们的区间，大约10到12倍市盈率，其他所有公司的估值都更高。
So in terms of valuation as I said 12 times forward earnings for comparison Eli Liy is 24 times only Fiser is in their territory around 10 to 12 times P everybody else is priced higher
所以我的假设是，基准情形是：即使在一个平庸的情景下，如果他们拿不出另一个重磅产品，盈利增长在中等个位数，然后我们还能拿到4.5%的股息。而且派息率相当健康，是50%。
so my assumption is base case is even in a mediocre scenario if they can't come up with another blockbuster the earnings are in the mid single digits and then we get a dividend of 4.5%.
To weight and the payout ratio is quite healthy. It's 50%.
不过有一个需要注意的地方：他们正在研发一款新的口服减肥药来竞争。这是semaglutide的口服版本，可以这么理解，用来和礼来竞争。这款药表现不错，实际上销售正在上升。最新的年化估计是，它可能为他们带来20亿美元的收入。
However, one caveat there is they're working on a new pillbased obesity drug to compete with. This is a wasmpix version of, you know, pill-based. Think of it that way to compete with Eli Lely.
And that is doing well. Actually, it's picking up sales. The latest annualized estimate is that it might become $2 billion in revenue for them.
但它的成分更多，而且成分不同。所以去年他们在资本开支上花了相当一部分来建设和扩建工厂。因此他们的自由现金流出现了暂时下滑。事实上，去年的自由现金流低于净利润。所以尽管派息率是50%，但并没有完全被覆盖，仅去年一年就超过了自由现金流的100%。这也让投资者感到害怕。所以这是暂时性的下滑。
But the ingredients, it has more ingredients that goes into it and they are different. So they're in the last year they spent quite a bit of their capex on it to build and expand their factory.
So there is a temporary dip in their free cash flow. In fact their free cash flow is less than their net income last year. So even though the payout ratio is 50% it's not completely support.
It's more than 100% of their free cash flow only for last year. So that also scared the investor. So it's a temporary dip.
CEO也换了。新CEO去年上任，正在推进一些重组。所以这些又都是一些负面因素。但我得到的是中等个位数的盈利增长、一个低市盈率倍数——希望它不会进一步压缩——以及4.5%的股息，4.5%的股息收益率。
The CEO also changed. The new CEO joined last year. He is working through some of the restructuring. So those are all some of the negatives again. So but what I get is a mid-s singledigit earnings growth, a low P multiple that cannot hopefully will not compress even further.
Um and 4.5% of dividend 4 and a half% [clears throat] dividend to wait.
不过上行空间在于：口服业务，也就是我刚说的那款药，如果成功的话。它已经显示出成功，而且还在继续增长。即使礼来是第一、诺和诺德是第二，如果走口服方案来解决肥胖和糖尿病，这个市场相当大。所以它可以在全球被采用，他们仍然能从中赚钱。
The upside however is the oral franchisee the the pill I just talked about is successful. It is showing already success but it's kind of continues to grow. Even if Eli Lilly is number one and no is number two it's a pretty big market if you go to the pill-based um solution for obesity and diabetes. so it can have worldwide adoption so they can still make money out of it.
但除此之外，他们还在研发下一代管线，将与礼来竞争，我会密切关注。它叫Amirin，目前处于三期试验，如果获批上市，到2028年我们就能知道结果。我会密切关注，因为那将改变整个局面。如果它成功，这部分上行空间完全没有被计入价格。
But on top of that they are working on a next generation pipeline that will compete with Eli Liy and I'll be watching out. It's called as Amirin. It's in phase three trials right now and we'll get to know by 2028 if they launch it.
But I'll be watching out for that because that will change the equation. If it is successful, that upside is not at all baked in.
目前计入价格的是：他们从一家伟大的公司变成一家平庸的公司，他们将在肥胖和糖尿病领域安于做礼来之后的第二名。这就是为什么他们的市盈率只有一半，而且会一直待在那里。
Right now, what is baked in is they they go from a great company to a mediocre company. They will settle in for number two in obesity and diabetes next to Eli Liy. That's why they're half the PE and they'll stay there.
在我看来，这相当于未来5年8%到9%的回报，最高10%，包含股息；但如果他们真的在新药上取得成功——他们还有几个，但我只是强调最重要的那一个——回报可以达到18%到22%以上。
这个很难建模，所以我不会太纠结于具体数字，但会显著高于我假设的基准情形。
That to me is like a 8 to 9% over the next 5 years returns max 10% including the dividend but if they do achieve success with the new drugs they have few more but I I'm just highlighting the one that is really important the returns can be in the upwards of 18 to 22%. which I it's very hard to model that so I wouldn't go too much into the number but it'll be significant than what the base case that I'm assuming for.
所以，在这个市场里，这并不是一个明年就能翻倍的标的。我要找的是一个更安全的押注，既能给我带来不错的回报，又能保护我的下行风险。所以这大概就是我对No的推介。
So um this is not a double in next year kind of a pitch in this market. I'm looking for a bet that is safer that can give me decent returns while also protecting my downside. So that's kind of my my pitch for uh No,
其实，这是个很好的问题，这也是这只股票下跌的原因之一，Toby。它究竟是一个赢家通吃型的生意，还是会变成双寡头格局？
Actually, that's a very good question and that's one of the reason why the stock is down, Toby. Is it a winner take all kind of a business or is it going to be like a duopoly?
目前，No把自己定位为性价比更高的替代选择，疗效略低一些。所以可能会有一些细分市场愿意为teset支付更高的价格，前提是其他创新不是来自别处，而这些细分市场是否被创造出来还不好说。
Right now no is positioning itself as the cost effective alternative with slightly lower efficacy. So there might be some segments that will pay up for teset assuming any other innovation is not coming from do they were the segments created.
这几乎就像是本来该由他们赢下的局，结果他们却输了，因为正如你刚才提到的，Eli采取了一种Novo忽视了的做法。
It's almost like it was their game to lose and they lost it because there was an approach as you just mentioned that Eli took that Novo ignored.
我的猜测是，No，如果我从历史上看它们，它们在胰岛素、肥胖和糖尿病领域确实很擅长。这一直是它们相对狭窄的专业领域。它们从来没能在这个领域之外做成什么事，但在这个领域里，它们非常擅长一个接一个地推出产品组合。
My suspicion is No, if I look at them historically, they're really good at insulin and obesity and diabetics. That's has been their kind of narrow expertise. They have never been able to do anything outside but in this they're really good at churning out product portfolio one after the other
我的猜测是，Noah在某些方面的疗效会追上来，到那时它可能仍然比teset略逊一筹，但它可能会在成本上竞争。
and my suspicion is Noah will catch up in some aspects in terms of efficacy to the point where it might be still slightly less effective than teset for example but it might compete on cost
但你说得对，我认为这就是风险所在。这里的押注在于市场足够大，而且他们提到的另一点是体质差异，也就是说每个人对药物的反应都不同，不像iPhone和Android那样，这里不只是产品本身，而是产品加上体质，所以可能有一部分或一类患者对No的药物反应比theatite更好，但这都取决于具体情况。
but you're right I think that is the risk the bet here is the market is big enough and One of the other things that they mention is the body type in the sense everybody reacts to medicine differently unlike say in iPhone and Android it's like a just by the product here it's the product and the body type and the component the body type so there might be a subset of or category of patients who might react better to say no drug compared to theatite but it all depends
但就我目前看到的情况而言，这并不是一个赢家通吃的局面。Eli显然比它们更有优势，目前占有60%的市场份额。Noah紧随其后排在第二，但风险在于可能还会有其他竞争者，不过我认为这两家是主要玩家，但没错，这是我们应当考虑的风险。
but from what I have seen So far it's not a winner take all. Eli has definitely an edge over them and they have 60% market share today. Noah is close second but the risk is there might be other competitors too but I think these two are the major players but yes that's a risk we should factor in.
你提到这点很有意思，几年前似乎人人都持有Novo。对我来说，我在这里的丹麦出生和长大，我觉得过去40年里，大家一直都持有它，也一直想谈论它。
You know it's interesting uh that you mentioned that a few years ago it seemed like everyone owned Novo. For me, being born and raised here in Denmark, I feel like for the past 40 years, everyone has always owned it and always wanted to talk about it.
我不知道。我对No总是有点纠结，对吧？Novo在巅峰时期，市值一度超过C25所有公司的总和，C25大致相当于丹麦版的标普500。
And um I don't know. I I I'm always a bit torn about no, right? And you know, Novo at its peak, it used to be worth more than all the companies in in C25, which is sort of like the Danish equivalent to the S&P 500.
你会想，那是什么呢？比如糖尿病和肥胖，它听起来不如你的MS那么响亮。我能说什么呢？但这就是这里人人都持有的股票，人人都想谈论它。
And you're like, so what is that? Like diabetes and obesity, you know, it it doesn't it doesn't ring as well as as your MS. What can I say? But it is the stock that everyone owns here and everyone wants to talk about it.
现在，这里人人都想谈论Novo，当然没人会去读它的资料。我这么说可能显得像个烟鬼，但丹麦持有Novo的人里，没有人会去读它的年报。这不是大多数人的股票分析方式。他们的想法是，有很多肥胖的人会买Novo，我父母持有Novo，我也要持有Novo，其他所有人也一样。
Now, so everyone here wants to talk about Novo and of course no one reads up on it. Like the way that I and I probably come across as a smok for saying this, but no one who owns Novo here in Denmark would ever read their annual report.
That is not the stock analysis of most people. They were like there's a lot of obese people buy Novo and my parents own Novo and I'm going to own Novo and everyone else.
所以，至少对我来说，这是一只很难判断的股票。这是一只非常棘手的股票。你之前推介过Merc，你知道，每当涉及大型制药公司时，我非常感兴趣的是系统，因为总是很容易去看IP，看它什么时候到期，然后那就是一个悬崖，那就是问题所在，所以我非常关注系统。
所以如果你能就此描绘一些细节，比如为什么Nova的系统更好，或者也许并非如此，但也许这已经被定价了，我很好奇想听听你怎么看这一点。
And so it is it's it's a tricky to me at least. It's a it's a very tricky stock. you pitched Merc some time ago and you know what I'm very interested in whenever it comes to to big pharma is very much um like what are the systems because you always have it's easy to look at the IP and when does that you know expire and then that's a cliff and that's the issue but so I'm very much looking at the system so if you can paint some color around that hard like why is the Nova system better or perhaps it's not but perhaps it's already priced in so I'm kind of curious to hear you how you think about that
是的，其实这也是我在看这个标的时研究的事情之一，好吧，它很便宜，但便宜是有原因的，它是不是一个价值陷阱，这是我的担忧，因为正如你所说，它们基本上总是集中在糖尿病和肥胖领域，这一直是它们的情况，它们在收购进入新领域、扩大TAM方面一直不太擅长。
不过，我认为这两个细分领域并不缺人，因为如果你看很多国家，事实上像印度正在经历某种糖尿病大流行，那里的糖尿病患者，甚至还有儿童糖尿病之类的，由于各种原因都呈上升趋势。所以它们有足够的市场。说起来很悲哀，但没错，这就是现实。
Yeah, actually that is one of the things I was looking into when I was looking at this talk as okay it is cheap but why there is a reason and is it a value trap that was my concern because as you said stick they're pretty much always concentrated between diabetes and obesity that has been their case they have not been very good at acquiring into new areas in terms of expanding their TAM [clears throat] if you However, I think there's no shortage of folks in these two segments because if you see many countries in fact like India is going through a diabetes pandemic of sorts where the diabetics even there is like childhood diabetes and all that stuff that is on an increasing trend for various reasons.
So they have enough market for this. It's sad to say that but yeah that's a reality
但我认为关键在于它们能否创新，而你提到的悬崖是最重要的事情，2030年、2032年是悬崖到来的时候，到那时它们管线中的一些药物，amritin是 forefront 的四个之一，而且对它来说也相当重要。
它们能否成功应对这一点，并重新夺回疗效领先地位？
but I think the key here is can they innovate and the cliff is what you brought up is the most important thing 2030 2032 is when the cliffs are coming and by then some of the um drugs in the pipeline that they have and the amritin is one of the four in the forefront and that's the one that is also which is quite substantial for them.
Are they able to successfully navigate that and regain the efficacy leadership?
所以基本上正如Toby也指出的，这就像一场正在进行的军备竞赛。几乎就像AI世界里的OpenAI和Anthropic。所以这两家现在正在争夺谁拥有最有效的肥胖药物，因为大钱就在这里。
So it's basically as Toby was also pointing out it's like a arms race that's going on. It's almost like open air and anthropic in the AI world. So these two guys are fighting for who has the most effective drug for obesity right now because that's where the big money
其余的我认，其余的东西比如胰岛素、糖尿病，那是一个已经稳定的市场，它们有领导地位，有管线，那不会改变多少，不会大幅推动增长，但在这里，关键在于谁有疗效，因为客户或患者也非常看重疗效。
the rest I think rest of the stuff like insulin diabetes it's a settled market they have their leadership they have pipeline there it's not going to change move the needle that much but here it's like who has the efficacy because this is where the customers or the patients are also So very keen on efficacy
而这两家基本上就像Anthropic和OpenAI的模型，它们并驾齐驱，有时一个慢下来，另一个就追上来，现在amicrretin的情况就是这样，它是它们用来与despatide竞争的下一个版本，而despatide目前是疗效方面的市场领导者。
and these two are like the models from anthropic and open AI basically they are going neck to neck sometimes one goes slower the other one catches up that's what is happening now with amicrretin is like their next version to compete with despatide which is the market leader today in terms of efficacy
我一时想不起来它的疗效具体如何、差异有多大。但对很多人来说已经足够了，就像Toby举的那个例子，说嘿，des tapetide对我效果更好。这也像Ozempic，如果你还记得，前一阵子Ozempic风靡一时，几乎成了减肥的代名词，但后来它们失势了，现在轮到desipatite。
不过我认为，如果amritin是那种可以用的东西，那这就是我会关注的。
I don't remember off the top of my head what's the efficacy and what's the delta But it's enough for many people like just Toby was giving that example to say hey des tapetide works better for me and it's also like how ozumpic if you remember a while back ompic was all the rage it was becoming like a verb for obesity fight but they lost now it's desipatite but I think if amritin is something that can take for that's what I'll be watching.
其实关键在于，如果他们能在amicritin上取得成功，我预期会有非常好的回报，而这就是这里的风险所在。否则，你就只能满足于8%到9%这种平庸的回报。考虑到当前的市场估值和我们所处的环境，我希望这个回报能比标普更好。
Actually, the key here is I'm expecting really good returns if they're able to be successful with amicritin and that's the risk here. Else you have to be satisfied with a mediocre return of 8 to 9%.
Which I'm hoping might be better than S&P considering the current market valuation and where we are.
我认为标普的市盈率在20多倍的中段或更高，大概就是这种水平，如果我记错了请纠正我。而它们的交易价格只有标普的一半。
I think S&P correct me if I'm wrong PE ratio is in the mid20s or higher like you know something like that. So and they are trading half of where SNP is trading.
所以我这里的核心论点是，大部分坏消息已经被消化了。管理层变动也已经被计入股价了。市场现在的看法是，它未来会是一家平庸的公司，基本上只能靠更便宜的药来竞争，而不是创新领导者。这就是它目前得到的估值。
So my my thesis here is most of the bad news is baked in. There is also a leadership change that is baked in into the stock already. So the way market is treating is that it is going to be a mediocre company going forward which will basically fight on having cheaper drugs but not the innovation leader. That's the valuation it is getting right now.
如果什么都没发生，它会在这个位置停留一段时间。但如果他们能在28、29、30年之前推出一些好药，包括amritin和他们手上的其他药物，那么估值也会相应改变。
And if nothing happens, it will stay there for a while. But if they're able to get out with some good drugs including amritin and others that they have by 28, 29, 30, then the valuation will also change accordingly.
它不是Novo Nordisk。
It's not a Novo Nord disk.