NVTS 因现金流为负且估值偏高而估值过高、风险较大，当前并非买入机会。
逐段跳播
Navitas Semiconductor 公司因其面向人工智能、国防和基础设施设计的高压半导体而令投资者感到兴奋。
Navitas Semiconductor Company is generating excitement among investors thanks to its high-voltage semiconductors designed for artificial intelligence, defense, and infrastructure.
然而，该公司仍在持续损失大量净利润，且预计现金流至少在今后三年内仍将保持为负。该股股价波动剧烈，一度飙升至每股 30 美元以上，又暴跌至每股 10 美元以下。
However, the company continues to lose significant amounts of its net income, and cash flow is expected to remain negative for at least the next three years . The stock price was volatile, soaring above $30 a share and plummeting to below $10 a share.
但在当前市场价格下，这项波动剧烈且蓬勃发展的 AI 业务是否代表着一个买入机会？从营收增长来看，近期的发展令人鼓舞，但近年来该公司的营收一直在下滑。
But does this volatile and booming AI business represent a buying opportunity at current market prices? Recent developments are encouraging in terms of revenue growth, but in recent years the company's revenue has been declining.
在过去十二个月里，该公司录得 3650 万美元营收，而两年前，其在类似期间的营收总额超过 9000 万美元。2025 年对 Navitas 而言是负增长的一年，营收较 2024 年下降 45%。
Over the past twelve months, the company has recorded $36.5 million in revenue, whereas two years ago, its total revenue exceeded $90 million in a similar period. 2025 was a negative year for Navitas , with revenues down 45% compared to 2024.
在过去十二个月里，营收下降了 46%。就 2026 年全年而言，跟踪 Navitas 的华尔街分析师预计将实现温和的个位数增长。
Over the past twelve months, revenues have decreased by 46%. For 2026 as a whole, Wall Street analysts who follow Navitas expect modest single- digit growth.
但他们预计业务将在 2027 年和 2028 年蓬勃发展，营收预测在 2027 年增长 56%，随后在 2028 年增长 67%。
But they expect business to boom in 2027 and 2028, with revenue forecasts increasing by 56% in 2027, and then by 67% in 2028.
分析师对 Navitas Semiconductors 持乐观态度的原因，是该公司签署了多份合同，且未来数年的业务订单积压量有所增加。
The reason behind the analysts' optimism about Navitas Semiconductors is the company's signing of several contracts and the increase in its backlog of business for the coming years.
正如我提到的，该公司在净利润层面正在亏损，现金流为负且不断恶化。经营性现金流在 2023 年达到 -50% 的峰值，随后在过去十二个月里降至 -182%。
As I mentioned, the company is losing money at the net profit level, and the cash flow is negative and getting worse. Cash flow from operations peaked at -50% in 2023 before falling to -182% over the past twelve months .
该公司尚未找到合适的办法来有效经营其业务，即在提高营收的同时改善利润率。投资者的资本回报率同样为负，且正朝着错误的方向发展，为 -64%，低于 2023 年峰值时的 20%。
The company has not yet found the right formula to run its business effectively, increase revenues while improving profit margins. Investors' return on capital is similarly negative and heading in the wrong direction at -64%, down from 20% at its peak in 2023.
鉴于其亏损，以及存在负利润和负现金流，我们能使用的估值指标受到限制。我选择使用市销率（price-to-forward ratio），根据这一指标，Navitas 股票的市销率超过 42。
Given their loss of money, and the existence of negative profits and cash flows, we are limited by the valuation metrics we can use. I chose to use the price- to-forward ratio, and according to this metric, Navitas stock is trading at a price-to- forward ratio of over 42.
即便预计其营收在未来两年及以后将大幅增长，这对一家公司而言仍是昂贵的估值。该公司仍在持续损失大量净利润，利润率转为负值，且尽管营收增长却未能改善。
This is an expensive valuation for a company, even if its revenues are expected to grow significantly over the next two years and beyond. The company continues to lose significant amounts of its net profit, with profit margins turning negative and failing to improve despite revenue growth.
同样，我更新了 Navitas Semiconductor 的现金流折现估值模型，并计算出该股的合理价值略高于 3 美元。
Similarly, I updated the discounted cash flow valuation model for Navitas Semiconductor and calculated a fair value for the stock of slightly more than $3.
这与目前超过每股12美元的市场价格相比。因此，无论我采用哪种估值标准，Navitas Semiconductor 目前看来都是一只估值过高的股票。
This compares to the current market price of over $12 per share. Therefore, regardless of the valuation scale I use, Navitas Semiconductor appears to be an overvalued stock at the moment .
诚然，它的前景非常出色，但估值也很高，而且这只股票波动很大。它是当今市场上最危险的股票之一。看看过去几个月股价的急剧上涨和下跌。
Certainly, its prospects are excellent, but the valuation is also high, and the stock is volatile. It is one of the most dangerous stocks in the market today. Look at the sharp rise and fall in the stock price over the past few months.
它从每股约7美元一路上涨、飙升到超过30美元，随后又跌回10美元以下，目前交易价格略高于12美元。对于许多不愿看到这种表现的投资者来说，这就像一列死亡列车。
It rose and soared from around $7 a share to more than $30 , before falling back below $10, and is now trading at just over $12. This is like a death train for many investors who do not prefer to see this type of performance.
只有那些风险承受能力较强、同时又在寻求非常高回报的投资者才应该考虑它。这是一项高回报、高风险的投资，但在当前这些价格下，似乎并不是承担风险的合适时机。
It should only be considered by investors who are more risk-tolerant and who are also looking for very high returns. This is a high-return, high-risk investment, but at these prices, it does n't seem like the right time to take the risk.
所以，针对我在引言中提出的问题，不，我认为在当前这些价格下这并不是一个有吸引力的买入机会，而且我对我给予 Navitas Semiconductor 的“持有”评级也信心不大。
So, in response to the question I posed in the introduction, no, I don't think this is an attractive buying opportunity at these prices, and I have little faith in the " hold" rating I gave to Navitas Semiconductor.
它占据了正确的位置、赶上了正确的时机，并且正处于大幅增长的边缘，但我认为股价已经反映了市场对公司业务显著改善的预期，而公司实际上尚未实现这一改善。
It is in the right place at the right time , and it is on the verge of massive growth, but I think the stock price reflects expectations of this significant improvement in business before the company actually achieves it.
因此，我对 Navitas Semiconductor 感兴趣，我会在场外观望，等待更好的买入机会、股价下跌，或业务改善，任何能让这一机会对长期投资者更具吸引力的因素。
Therefore, I am interested in Navitas Semiconductor , and I will wait on the sidelines for a better buying opportunity, a drop in the share price , or an improvement in business, anything that makes this opportunity more attractive to long-term investors.
这个频道对 $NVTS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。