Realty Income是具吸引力的长期买入标的；当前估值提供超过6%的初始回报和约20%的上行空间，驱动力来自Realty Income 3.0模式与稳定的AFFO增长。
逐段跳播
我们甚至看到，像Realty Income这样现金流稳定的热门房地产投资信托，仅在上个月就下跌了12%。
We even saw a 12% drop in very popular real estate investment trusts , such as the stable cash flow Realty Income, in just the last month .
但即便是像Realty Income这样的大盘房地产投资信托，也仅在过去两个月里就变得明显更具吸引力的投资机会，尤其是在长期来看。
but even large-cap REITs, such as Realty Income, have become significantly more attractive investment opportunities in just the last two months, especially in the long term.
现在，我们来看看有史以来最著名的房地产投资信托之一——Realty Income（代码O），一家按月派息的公司，这个说法是公司自己创造的。
Now, we come to one of the most famous real estate investment trusts of all time, Realty Incom (symbol O), a monthly dividend payout company, a term coined by the company itself.
上个月，该公司股价下跌了约12%，年初至今下跌3.76%，此前五年表现平平，至少从股价上涨的角度来看是这样。但是，和VICI Properties一样，如果每股调整后净营运现金流在增长，同时我们又看到股价下跌，这自然意味着该股的估值倍数远低于过去五年的水平。
这一倍数已大幅下降，尤其是在过去三个月里。历史上，该股的交易价格约为每股调整后净营运现金流的14.69倍，而现在已经降至11.99倍。这个价格接近该股2023年估值最低时的水平。
作为对比，当时的股价约为46美元。我知道我们很多人都有价格锚定偏差，把对股票的看法与过去见过的价格绑定在一起。但这说明的是，当Realty Income的股价在2023年约为46美元时，那个价格大致相当于其目前在2026年约54美元或53美元的价格。
为什么会有这种等价？很简单，因为每股调整后净营运现金流（AFFO）持续增长。以目前这个价格交易，给公司带来超过6%的初始回报率，这对Realty Income来说很罕见。
Last month, the company's shares fell by about 12%, and by 3.76% since the beginning of the year, following five years of modest performance, at least from the perspective of rising share price.
But, as with Vesi Properties, if adjusted net operating cash flows per share are growing, while at the same time we are seeing a decline in the share price, this naturally means that the stock is trading at a much lower valuation multiple than it has been over the past five years.
This multiplier has decreased significantly, especially in the last three months. Historically, the stock traded at a multiple of approximately 14.69 for adjusted net operating cash flows per share, while it has now fallen to 11.99.
This price is close to what the stock was at its lowest valuation in 2023. For comparison, the stock price at that time was around $46. I know that many of us suffer from price fixity bias, where we tie our opinions about stocks to prices we have seen in the past.
But what this indicates is that when Realty Inc.'s stock price was around $46 in 2023, that price is roughly equivalent to its current price of around $54 or $53 in 2026. Why this parity?
Simply because the adjusted net operating cash flow per share (AFFO) continued to grow. Trading at this price currently gives the company an initial return of more than 6%, which is rare for Realty Inc.
现在，我们必须明白，该公司历史上取得了非凡的回报，自首次公开募股以来一直跑赢标准普尔500指数。事实是，这是一项了不起的成就。显然，就总回报而言，近期表现不如从前那么亮眼，但真正令人印象深刻的是，他们能够在极低的波动率水平下实现这一点，这对寻求稳定现金流的投资者至关重要。
其股价的贝塔系数约为0.5。因此，与标准普尔500指数相比，你通常只承担大约一半的波动率，却能获得高得多的总体回报，至少自成立以来是这样。
Now, we must understand that the company has historically achieved remarkable returns, outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500 index since its initial public offering. The truth is, this is a remarkable achievement.
Clearly, recent performance, in terms of total return, has not been as impressive as it once was, but what is truly impressive is their ability to achieve this with extremely low levels of volatility, which is crucial for investors seeking stable cash flows.
Their stock price has a beta coefficient of approximately 0.5. Therefore, compared to the Standard & Poor's 500 index, you typically get roughly half the volatility while achieving much higher overall returns, at least since inception.
该公司的投资组合非常强劲；它是一家安全稳定的公司，拥有投资评级，且高度多元化。你可以在杂货、便利店、家居装修和折扣商品等行业找到它的租户。
The company's portfolio is very strong; it is a safe and stable company with an investment rating and is well diversified. You can find stocks in the grocery, convenience store, home improvement, and discount goods sectors.
然而，Realty Income股票目前面临的问题是借贷成本高企，这最终导致所有房地产投资信托（REITs）的价格走低。同时，随着股价下跌，股权成本也在上升。就增加利润而言，发行股票已变得不那么可行。
However, the problem facing Realty Income stock right now is the high cost of borrowing, which ultimately leads to lower prices for all real estate investment trusts (REITs). At the same time, as the share price falls, the cost of equity also rises.
Issuing shares has become less viable in terms of increasing profits.
而Realty Income则采取了一种完全不同、或许更具吸引力的方式。Realty Income正在演变为所谓的Realty Income 3.0。Realty Income 3.0的基础是将Realty Income的房地产专业知识和关系用于投资和资本管理，并与外部投资者结合。
那么这在实践中是什么样子？外部投资者向基金或合伙企业出资，而Realty Income负责识别、评估和管理投资组合。因此，公司除了获得基金管理费外，还能从其投入的资本中获得回报。
这样，优势在于管理费可以累积利润，而无需Realty Income为购买这些物业投入每一美元。这在资本成本方面是一种优势。发行股权不是有吸引力的选择，借贷也没那么有吸引力，但以每年1%的费率管理10亿美元的付费资本，在扣除运营成本前可产生1000万美元的年度总费用收入。
因此，Realty Income使其资本成本来源多元化。事实上，这来得正是时候，因为此事已经筹备了一段时间。因此，在当前的利率环境下，Realty Income可以从中大为受益。
这可以通过一种对资本依赖度更低的收入模式，加速每股调整后营运现金流的增长。它还可以扩大目标市场的范围，减少如前所述对公开股票的依赖，此外还拥有不同且不重叠的投资工具。
Realty Income, on the other hand, has a completely different, and perhaps more appealing, approach. Realty Income is evolving into what is called Realty Income 3.0. Realty Income 3.0 is based on integrating Realty Income's real estate expertise and relationships for investment and capital management, along with external investors.
So how does this look in practice? Well, external investors contribute capital to a fund or partnership, while Realty Income identifies, evaluates, and manages the portfolio. As a result, the company earns returns on its invested capital in addition to fund management fees.
Thus, the advantage is that management fees can add up profits without Realty Income contributing every dollar required to purchase these properties. This represents an advantage in terms of capital cost.
Issuing equity is not an attractive option, and borrowing is not as appealing, but managing $1 billion of fee-paying capital at 1% per annum generates $10 million in total annual fee income before deducting operating costs.
Therefore, Realty Inc. diversifies its sources of capital costs. In fact, this came at the perfect time, as this had been in preparation for some time. Therefore, in the current interest rate environment, Realty Inc. could benefit greatly from this.
This can accelerate the growth of adjusted operating cash flow per share through a less capital-dependent revenue model. It can also expand the scope of the target market, reduce reliance on public stocks as mentioned previously, in addition to having different and non-overlapping investment tools.
作为一个令人兴奋的预告，我正在准备在“Miss Price”播客上主持对Realty Income首席执行官的采访。如果你还没有订阅，现在就应该订阅。在我的频道上，我主持过投资基金经理、标准普尔500指数上市公司的首席执行官以及市场专家的访谈。
对Realty Income首席执行官的采访将在几天后播出。
As an exciting hint, I'm preparing to host the CEO of Realty Incom on the "Miss Price" podcast. If you are not a subscriber, you should subscribe now. On my channel, I have hosted investment fund managers, CEOs of companies listed on the S&P 500 index, as well as market experts.
The interview with the CEO of Realty Income will be broadcast in a few days.
那么，我们来稍微谈谈该公司的估值。如果我们仔细查看Realty Income的历史数据，会发现这里列出的股票代码O。股息增长近期达到约2.8%，接近3%，但每股调整后净营运现金流（AFFO）预计在2026年至2029年期间约为3.44%。
这意味着什么？如果每股调整后净营运现金流（AFFO）以3.44%增长，而公司希望将股息支付率保持在同一目标区间内，我们很可能也会看到股息增长落在该区间内。如果我们转到股票估值表，从股息贴现模型的角度来看，会发现一些有趣的东西。
如果该股盈利增长约3%，公允价值约为65.30美元，这意味着较当前价格有20%的潜在上涨空间。Realty Income是最保守的房地产投资信托公司之一。请记住这一点，即便推出了Realty Income 3.0。
你现在将获得6%的初始回报率，年盈利增长约3%。这是一个有吸引力的组合，也解释了为何可能较当前价格大幅上涨。
So, let's talk a little about the company's valuation. If we look closely at Realty Income's historical data, we will find the stock symbol O listed here. Dividend growth recently reached approximately 2.8%, or nearly 3%, but adjusted net operating cash flow (AFFO) per share is expected to be around 3.44% for the period from 2026 to 2029.
What does this mean? Well, if the adjusted net operating cash flow (AFFO) per share is growing at 3.44%, and the company wants to keep the dividend payout ratio within the same target range, we are likely to see dividend growth within that range as well.
If we move to the stock valuation table and look at it from the perspective of the dividend discount model, we will find something interesting. If the stock's earnings grow by approximately 3%, the fair value is around $65.30, which implies a potential upside of 20% from current prices.
Realty Income is one of the most conservative real estate investment trust companies. Keep that in mind, even with the launch of Realty Income 3.0. You will now get an initial return of 6% with annual earnings growth of approximately 3%.
This is an attractive combination, which explains the potentially large rise above current prices.
观察点
这个频道对 $O 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。