ORCL的5年期违约保险处于创纪录的288个基点，评级为BBB负面；其6380亿美元积压订单中超过50%来自OpenAI，标普预计其2027年现金为负420亿美元。其股价从320跌至128、跌幅60%，暴露了积压订单的故事。
逐段跳播
现在来看 Oracle，愚蠢是没法补救的。Oracle 的 5 年期违约保险，好吧？这是创纪录的。它的评级是（BBB 负）。这比“天哪，世界要完了”的水平高一个等级，达到 288 个基点。
And now, Oracle , which you can't fix stupidity for. Oracle's 5-year default insurance, okay? This is a record. It is rated at (triple-B negative). This is one degree above the "Oh my God, the world is going to end" level at 288 basis points.
那么，Oracle 现在的情况是这样的。它较 6 月份的峰值下跌了约 50%。
Now, here's what's up with Oracle. Well, it's down about 50% from its peak in June.
Oracle 从明年开始向 OpenAI 租用算力，租期大约 5 年，对吧？
Oracle is leasing computing capabilities from OpenAI for approximately 5 years starting next year, right?
所以，Oracle 有这么一大堆积压合同，他们说：“市场对我们的产品、对我们的算力的需求，对算力的需求如此巨大，所以我们有这么多钱进来。”我们有很多……现在，我们必须履行这些合同。
我忘了它叫什么了，但它是一项仍然必须履行的承诺，然而，我们有 6380 亿美元的积压订单。
So, Oracle has this massive backlog of contracts where they say, 'The demand for our product, for our computing power, the demand for that computing power is so huge that we have all this money coming in.'
We have a lot of... now , we have to fulfill that. I forget what it's called , but it's a commitment that still has to be fulfilled, and yet, we have $638 billion in backlog.
你积压合同里略超 50% 来自一家公司，那就是……OpenAI。
A little over 50% of your backlog of contracts is coming from one company, and that's..." OpenAI.
标准普尔对 Oracle 2027 年的预计现金流是负 420 亿美元。好吧，这真的合理吗？不，不合理。于是，Oracle 的股价从交易后的峰值 320 美元跌到了 128 美元。
好吧，这是 60% 的跌幅，就像那种幕布终于拉开、你能看到“绿野仙踪”真面目的时刻。
Standard & Poor's projected cash for Oracle in 2027 is negative $42 billion . Okay, does that really make sense? No, it doesn't . And so, Oracle's stock dropped from its post-deal peak of $320 to $128.
Okay, that's a 60% drop, and that's one of those Things like the curtain finally comes off, and you can see what "The Wizard of Oz" really looks like.