$ORCL · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-27
Oracle 是一个被错误定价的机会：按前瞻盈利计为 8.4 倍，未来两年预期每股收益增长 90%（按今年盈利计为 16 倍），市场错误地把 OpenAI 合同的不可抗力风险定价为收入将无法确认。其不依赖特定芯片的云推进以及更快的数据中心建设应能加快收入增长；我预期投资者日会更新下一财年和 OCI 的情况，尽管这些数字可能略有缩水，我已加仓。
逐段跳播
我们收到了太多关于 AI 领域投资动态的消息，来自 Meta、来自 Oracle、来自 Nvidia、来自 AMD。
We got so many updates on investments happening in the AI world from Meta, from Oracle, from Nvidia, from AMD.
我认为这是看错了 Oracle。
I think it's looking at Oracle wrong.
我真的认为 Oracle 就是那个被错误定价的机会。
And I really think Oracle is that mispriced opportunity.
我看到 Oracle 今天发布了一些不错的东西。他们宣布将扩大与 Nvidia 的合作。他们即将推出 Helios 机架。我不知道你有没有看到，Steve，他们计划在 2027 年把 TPU 引入他们的云解决方案，还把 Cerebras 引入他们的云解决方案。
所以他们想成为这样的角色：我不在乎是什么芯片，我们全都有。你来找我们，你想要什么我们都能卖给你。
I I saw Oracle release some good stuff today. uh they they made the announcement that they're going to make have more expanding their partnership with Nvidia. They have the Helios rack coming up.
Um and it seems I don't know if you saw Steve that they're planning on bringing in 2027 TPUs to their cloud solution and also uh Cerebras to their cloud solution. So they want to be like this.
I don't care what chip, we have them all. You come to us, we'll be able to sell whatever you want.
是的，我认为这非常重要，因为他们确实想成为一家不依赖特定芯片的公司。你想要什么、你的使用场景是什么，都不重要。你这番话说得比我说的还好。我认为人们在 Oracle 上犯了一个非常大的错误。
如果 Larry Ellison 是这条链上的薄弱环节，我每天都愿意押注他能把一切撑住。那可是 Larry Ellison。那可是 Oracle。你们在做什么？我们认为 Oracle 要倒闭了。
我们认为他们错了。我是说，太多人了。这不是互联网泡沫。这不是在铺设光纤。而当我看着 Oracle 时，我就要把它提出来，因为它真的让我很恼火。
Yeah, I think it's very important because they truly want to be company and chip agnostic. It doesn't matter what you want, what your use case is. You I I could not have said it better than you said it.
And I think people are making a very big mistake on Oracle. If Larry Ellison is the weak link in the chain, I will bet on him holding it together every day. It's the Larry Ellison.
It's Oracle. What do you do? We think Oracle is going out of business. We think that they're going to be wrong. I mean, it's too many people. This is not the dot bubble. This is not building out fiber.
And when I look at Oracle, I'm just going to bring it up because it's really annoying me.
先生，Oracle 的远期市盈率是 8.4 倍，预计未来两年每股收益增长 90%。Oracle，我就这么说吧，按今年的盈利算是 16 倍市盈率。16 倍。
Oracle trades at 8.4 times forward earnings, sir, with an expected 90% EPS growth over the next two years. Oracle, let me just say this, trades at 16 times this year's earnings. 16.
人们真的认为 OpenAI 的合同会发生不可抗力。现在的定价就好像他们不会确认收入一样。我认为市场错了。我认为这是胡说八道。
People legitimately think force majour is going to happen on OpenAI contracts. This is being priced as if they are not going to recognize revenue. I think the market's wrong. I think this is BS.
Stephen，我知道 Oracle 明天有投资者日。我觉得那些数字会略微缩水，因为我相当确定我们会得到一些关于他们 OCI 的更新。我认为 Oracle 是去年、或者一年多以前，第一家向我们分享其云基础设施业务多年预期趋势的公司。
我认为他们分享这些，是因为显然这样投资者更容易理解来自 OpenAI 和其他这些玩家的 RPO 将如何兑现。但我认为他们明天会做一个大规模的更新，关于改善下一财年、关于他们将赚多少钱，因为我们看到的一件事，Steve，就是数据中心，我在某些财报里看到过，他们说：看，我们以前更频繁地建设数据中心，而现在我们在提高建设速度的效率。
如果你能更快地建好，会发生什么？你就能更快地收回收入。
And Stephen, now I know Oracle has their investor day tomorrow. I feel like those numbers are going to shrink a little bit based on I'm pretty sure we're going to get some updates on their OCI.
I I I think this was the first company uh Oracle I think was the first company last year or a little bit over a year ago where they shared us kind of this multi-year trend of what they expect their cloud infrastructure business to do.
Um, I think they share that because obviously it's it's easier for investors to kind of understand how that RPO from OpenAI and all these other players are going to pay out. Um but I think they're going to do a massive update um tomorrow uh on on improving next fiscal year on how much money they're going to make because one thing that we are seeing Steve is data centers are I I've seen it in certain earnings where they're saying look data centers were we're building them more often then now we're improving the efficiency of how quickly we can build them up.
If you can build them up a lot faster what's happening you're collecting revenue a lot faster.
像 Oracle 这样的公司，根据他们财报电话会上的说法，在建设这些数据中心方面已经相当高效，只会变得越来越好。
companies like Oracle which are already pretty efficient based on their earnings call at building these data centers are just going to get uh better and better.
等我们拿到 Oracle 的 S1 再说。我不是 Oracle。什么？等我们拿到 OpenAI 的 S1，并且它证明出类似 Anthropic 的东西，那他们还能去哪里找那个吓人的怪物？
Wait till we get Oracle's S1. I'm not an oracle. What? Wait until we get open AIS as one and it proves out something similar to anthropic. Then where are they going to find the boogeyman?
我加仓了 Oracle。
I bought more Oracle.
观察点
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