PANW 估值明显偏高，原因是估值倍数高企，而基本面表现相对股价而言疲弱。
逐段跳播
代理式AI的普及对网络安全股来说是个重大利好，尤其是对Palo Alto Networks。毫无疑问，人工智能代理的行为所带来的需求增长，创造了对网络安全的更大需求。
The proliferation of proxy AI was great news for cybersecurity stocks, and for Palo Alto Networks in particular. There is no doubt that the increased demand resulting from the actions of artificial intelligence agents creates an increased demand for cybersecurity.
但更重要的是，而且我认为影响更大的是，这些新闻头条对网络安全股来说是个重大利好，不是吗？我们听说过AI代理失控、做出这些事情，而这些头条新闻、这些担忧以及它们在投资者中引发的情绪，确实促使投资者把网络安全股视为这一问题的解决方案。
But more importantly, and I think more impactfully, the news headlines were great for cybersecurity stocks, weren't they? We have heard about AI agents getting out of control and doing these things, and those headlines and concerns and what they raise among investors have really encouraged them to look at cybersecurity stocks as a solution to this problem.
这对我来说也是好事。直到几周前，我一直把其中许多网络安全股评为极佳的买入机会，包括Palo Alto Networks。
That was great for me too. Until a few weeks ago, I was rating many of these cybersecurity stocks as excellent buying opportunities, including Palo Alto Networks .
自2026年初以来，该股已上涨超过109%，我知道我的许多观众也因此获得了可观的收益。
The stock has risen by more than 109% since the beginning of 2026, and I know that many of my viewers have made significant gains as a result.
那么，说了这么多，既然Palo Alto股价已经涨了这么多、估值也已经上升，我现在打算怎么处理Palo Alto的股票？
So, after all that has been said, what am I going to do with Palo Alto stock now that its price has risen so much and its valuation has increased?
让我在这个视频里回答这个问题，通过审视公司的长期发展并将其与估值进行比较，从而给出一个策略，说明如果今天我持有Palo Alto股票我会怎么做。
Let me answer this question in this video by reviewing the company’s long-term developments and comparing them to its valuation, to provide a strategy for what I would do if I owned Palo Alto stock today.
由于AI代理的普及，Palo Alto的营收增长确实出现了激增，从2026年初以来日益陡峭的营收曲线中就能看出这一点。
Palo Alto has certainly seen a surge in revenue growth as a result of the spread of AI proxies, and you can see that in the increasingly steep revenue curve since the beginning of 2026.
但这家公司营收增长已经持续了十多年，另一个对其有利的趋势是客户之间的供应商整合。企业现在有许多不同的供应商，它们正在寻找可以整合供应商关系的领域。Palo Alto Networks提供了一种全面的网络安全方案，客户可以依靠它满足所有需求。
But this company has been growing revenue for more than a decade, and another trend working in its favor is the consolidation of suppliers between customers. Companies now have many different suppliers, and they are looking for areas to consolidate their supplier relationships.
Palo Alto Networks provides a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity, which customers can turn to for all their needs.
然而，尽管2026年营收增长加速，公司的营业利润率却在崩塌。它已从12.5%降至5.4%，这表明公司需要投入更多资金才能产生这些额外的收入。
However, while revenue growth accelerates in 2026, the company's operating profit margins are collapsing. It has dropped from 12.5% to 5.4%, indicating that the company needs to invest more money to generate those additional revenues.
这表明，内生性收入的需求并不像人们看公司业绩时可能以为的那样旺盛。如果看公司的投入资本回报率，我们会得到类似的数字，该指标在2024年达到约45%的峰值，如今已降至1.77%。
This is a sign that organic revenue is not as much in demand as one might assume when looking at the company's performance. We get a similar figure if we look at the company’s return on invested capital, which peaked at around 45% in 2024 and has now fallen to 1.77%.
所以，当整体地看这家公司，把利润率和营收都考虑在内时，其表现并不像表面上看起来那么亮眼。但评级已经达到了最高点。
So, when looking at the company holistically, where we take into account margins as well as revenues, the performance is not as impressive as it may appear on the surface. But the rating has reached its highest point.
Palo Alto Networks目前的远期市盈率为78，而如果回到2024年，这一估值完全处于另一个水平。
Palo Alto Networks is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 78, and if we go back to 2024, this valuation is at a completely different level.
所以，这家公司被重新估值了。投资者重新评估了这项业务，愿意支付几乎是两年前、也就是代理式AI兴起之前所支付估值两倍的价格。
So , the company was re-evaluated . Investors have reassessed this business and are willing to pay nearly double the valuation they were paying two years ago, before the rise of proxy AI.
在我看来，这种重新评估被夸大了。我同意它本应被重新估值，但或许不该达到80倍的远期市盈率。或许它本可以达到60或65倍的远期市盈率，但不该达到今年早些时候出现过的80或85倍。
In my opinion, this reassessment is exaggerated. I agree that it should have been revalued, but perhaps not to a forward P/E ratio of 80. Perhaps it would have reached a forward P/E ratio of 60 or 65, but not to 80 or 85 as happened earlier this year.
几周前，评级大幅上升并达到了峰值。因此，我也用现金流折现法更新了对Palo Alto Networks的估值，给该股的估值为164美元。它目前的交易价格是385美元。
A few weeks ago, the rating rose sharply and reached its peak. Therefore, I also updated my valuation of Palo Alto Networks using discounted cash flows, valuing the stock at $164. It is currently trading at $385.
因此，无论从预期市盈率倍数来看，还是基于现金流折现，我都认为Palo Alto Networks存在显著高估。
Therefore, I see a significant overvaluation of Palo Alto Networks, whether viewed through the forward price-to-earnings multiple or based on discounted cash flows.
正如我几周前、一个多月前所提到的，我将Palo Alto Networks股票的评级从买入机会下调为持有。随后在9月9日，她又重申了这一持有评级。
So, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, a little over a month ago, I downgraded my rating on Palo Alto Networks stock from a buy opportunity to a hold. She then reaffirmed this retention rating on September 9.
所以，如果我今天持有Palo Alto Networks股票，我会考虑两件事。我会考虑以约425美元的价格卖出备兑看涨期权。如果股价涨到该水平、我手中股票的买入期权被执行，我会感到满意。
So, what I would do if I owned Palo Alto Networks stock today is think about two things. I would consider selling a covered call option at a price of approximately $425. I would be satisfied if the stock price rose to that level and the buy option on my shares was executed.
或者，如果我持有Palo Alto Networks股票已有一段时间，我会考虑减持并获利了结。我会将其中一部分资产转换为我认为被低估的其他股票。
Or I would consider reducing my position and taking profits if I hold Palo Alto Networks shares for a while. I will convert some of those assets into other stocks that I feel are undervalued .
这个频道对 $PANW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。