PANW 高估约 50%（DCF 公允价值 164 美元），建议等待更好的入场价格再买入。
逐段跳播
到2026年，Fortinet和Palo Alto Networks等公司的股价已上涨超过100%。Palo Alto Networks和Fortinet等网络安全公司在过去十年中已经实现了收入增长。
人工智能的普及为这一增长提供了额外的动力。可以看到，自2026年以来，收入增长曲线最近有所加速。
Shares of companies like Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks have risen by more than 100% by 2026. Cybersecurity companies like Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet have already seen revenue growth over the past decade.
The spread of artificial intelligence has served as additional fuel for this growth. You can see that the revenue growth curve has accelerated recently since 2026.
按过去十二个月的收入计算，Palo Alto Networks和Fortinet是规模最大的网络安全公司之一。
Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet are among the largest cybersecurity companies in terms of revenue over the past twelve months.
Palo Alto的收入已升至115亿美元，增长了近十倍。然而，在比较两家公司的经营盈利能力时，一个关键差异显现出来。从2026年以来的营业利润率来看，两家公司出现了分化，Palo Alto Networks的营业利润率下降，而Fortinet则达到了新的纪录水平。
Palo Alto's revenues have risen to $11.5 billion, an increase of nearly tenfold. However, a key difference emerges when comparing the two companies in terms of operating profitability.
Looking at the operating profit margin since 2026, the two companies have diverged, with Palo Alto Networks' operating profit margin declining while Fortinet has achieved new record levels.
此外，Fortinet的营业利润率显著高于Palo Alto Networks的营业利润率，并且在整个过去十年中一直如此。所以，这并不是什么新鲜事。
Furthermore, Fortinet 's operating profit margin is significantly higher than Palo Alto Networks' operating profit margin, and has remained so throughout the past decade. So, this is nothing new.
相比之下，Palo Alto Networks的营业利润率也有所改善，但幅度不及Fortinet。该公司的营业利润率为5.4%，高于2017年的-15%。
In contrast, Palo Alto Networks' operating profit margin also improved, but not to the same extent as Fortinet's. The company's operating profit margin was 5.4%, up from -15% in 2017.
相比之下，Palo Alto的投资资本回报率曾达到约50%的峰值，随后在过去十二个月中降至约1.8%。Palo Alto Networks在人均收入这一指标上胜过Fortinet。
这是自人工智能步伐加快以来我一直密切关注的一项生产率指标。我认为这是企业整合人工智能以提高生产率的一种方式。自2022年以来，Palo Alto的人均收入实现了显著增长。
In contrast, Palo Alto’s returns on invested capital peaked at around 50%, then fell to around 1.8% over the past twelve months. Now, one of the metrics where Palo Alto Networks outperforms Fortinet is revenue per employee.
This is a productivity metric that I have been following closely since the pace of artificial intelligence accelerated. I see this as one way companies are integrating artificial intelligence to increase their productivity.
Since 2022, Palo Alto's revenue per employee has seen remarkable growth.
因此，在衡量总收入以及衡量人均收入时，Palo Alto Networks都胜过Fortinet。在估值方面，Palo Alto Networks的股价高于Fortinet。从市盈率来看，Palo Alto Networks的股价接近多年来的最高水平，为79。
Therefore, Palo Alto Networks outperformed Fortinet when measuring total revenue and when measuring revenue per employee. In terms of valuation, Palo Alto Networks shares are trading at a higher price than Fortinet.
Based on the price-to-earnings ratio, Palo Alto Networks shares are trading near their highest level in years, at 79.
请记住，网络安全股有望在2026年大幅飙升，Palo Alto和Fortinet的股价预计将上涨超过100%。
Keep in mind that cybersecurity stocks are poised for a significant surge in 2026, with Palo Alto and Fortinet shares expected to rise by more than 100%.
我对此感到兴奋，因为我多年来一直看好网络安全行业。你听我说过，我把它描述为近年来我最看好的行业之一。因此，我很高兴看到该行业整体表现良好，Fortinet和Palo Alto Networks也是如此，这两只股票多年来一直是我考虑的投资机会。
I am excited about this because I have been optimistic about the cybersecurity industry for many years. You have heard me describe it as one of the industries I have been most optimistic about in recent years.
Therefore, I am pleased to see the industry performing well overall, as well as Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks, two stocks I have considered investment opportunities for several years.
使用贴现现金流模型来看，这些股票也显得昂贵。我计算出Palo Alto Networks股票的合理价值为164美元。与其当前市场价格相比，它似乎被高估了约50%。
These stocks also appear to be expensive when using the discounted cash flow model. I calculated the fair value of Palo Alto Networks stock at $164. Compared to its current market price, it appears to be overvalued by about 50%.
所以，估值确实大幅上升，股价预计将在2026年攀升。如果由我决定，我会推迟买入任何网络安全股，或者至少这两只，直到价格变得更具吸引力。
So, valuations have certainly risen considerably, with stock prices expected to climb in 2026. If it were up to me, I would postpone buying any cybersecurity stocks, or at least these two, until prices become more attractive.
这个频道对 $PANW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。