$PANW · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-05
Palo Alto Networks 在352美元价位不构成买入机会：其远期市盈率为72倍，相对未来几年低于20%的盈利增长预期偏高，按他的计算该股价值为172美元。股价已充分计入代理式AI带来的收益，包括尚未显现的消费端收益；他重申将其下调至持有。
逐段跳播
代理式AI的普及对网络安全股来说是个重大利好，包括Palo Alto Networks。当然，我对此感到高兴，因为多年来我一直在说，网络安全行业是最值得投资的行业之一。
The proliferation of proxy AI has been great news for cybersecurity stocks, including Palo Alto Networks. Of course, I'm glad about that because I've been talking for years about the cybersecurity industry being one of the best industries to invest in.
仅今年一年，网络安全股就上涨了近100%，其中Palo Alto Networks的股价具体涨幅超过91%。然后，两个月前，我将其中许多公司下调至“持有”评级，包括Palo Alto Networks。
This year alone, cybersecurity stocks have risen by nearly 100%, with Palo Alto Networks shares specifically rising by more than 91%. Then, two months ago, I downgraded many of them, including Palo Alto Networks, to a "hold" rating.
事实证明这是正确的决定，因为Palo Alto Networks的股价自达到400美元以来一直波动不定。
That proved to be the right decision, as Palo Alto Networks' performance has been volatile since the stock reached $400.
目前股价为353美元，我想重新审视这家网络安全公司，以判断在股价从今年早些时候的400美元下跌后，它是否构成了一个有吸引力的买入机会。
The price is now at $353, and I wanted to revisit this cybersecurity firm to determine if it represented an attractive buying opportunity after its drop from $400 earlier this year.
要衡量华尔街对Palo Alto Networks这类网络安全公司日益增长的热情，一种方法是观察华尔街分析师对这些公司长期每股收益增长的预测以及这些预测的趋势线。
One way to gauge the growing enthusiasm on Wall Street for cybersecurity firms like Palo Alto Networks is to look at Wall Street analysts' estimates of these firms' long-term earnings per share growth and the trend line of those estimates.
对于Palo Alto Networks，今年2月和3月，跟踪该股的分析师预计，未来几年其每股收益增长率约为12%。
For Palo Alto Networks, in February and March of this year, Wall Street analysts who follow it estimated that it would achieve earnings per share growth of about 12% over the next few years.
这一预测低于2024年1月的约26%。因此，分析师对Palo Alto Networks这类网络安全公司越来越悲观，预测在今年早些时候触及低点。
That estimate was down from about 26% in January 2024. So analysts were becoming increasingly pessimistic about cybersecurity firms like Palo Alto Networks, and estimates hit a low point earlier this year.
但随着人工智能代理开始普及，这些预测开始上升，你可以看到过去几个月这种情况正在发生，截至录制本视频时，预测已从12%升至19%。
But as the artificial intelligence proxy began to spread, those estimates started to rise, and you can see that happening over the past few months, with estimates going up from 12% to 19% at the time this video was recorded.
代理式AI的普及意味着更多的操作正在被执行，尤其是由代理执行。代理可以全天不间断地执行更多操作，持续完成任务，这增加了公司、机构和个人面临的风险规模。这意味着对网络安全的需求日益增长，这就是为什么分析师对Palo Alto Networks这类公司变得更加乐观，甚至更加乐观。
The proliferation of proxy AI means that more actions are being taken, especially by agents. Agents can take more actions throughout the day without stopping, as they continuously accomplish tasks, and this increases the size of the risks that companies, institutions, and individuals face.
This means there is a growing need for cybersecurity, and that is why analysts have become optimistic, even more optimistic, about companies like Palo Alto Networks.
但自今年年初以来，股价已经大幅上涨，估值也是如此。远期市盈率已从今年早些时候的约30倍上升，我当时认为这是一个绝佳机会，并将包括Palo Alto Networks在内的这些公司评为极佳的买入机会。
But the share price had already risen significantly since the beginning of this year, as had the valuation. The forward price-to-earnings ratio has risen from around 30 earlier this year, which I considered a great opportunity, and I rated these companies, including Palo Alto Networks, as excellent buying opportunities.
但随后估值升至70倍以上，按远期市盈率计算接近90倍，我觉得这被高估了，所以当时我下调了对Palo Alto Networks的评级。
But the valuation then rose above 70 and approached 90 on a forward price-to-earnings basis, and I felt this was overrated, so I lowered my rating for Palo Alto Networks at that point.
嗯，该股目前的远期市盈率为72倍，鉴于公司未来几年的每股收益预测仍低于20%，我仍然认为这很高。
Well, the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 72, which I still consider high given that the company's earnings per share estimates are still below 20% for the next few years.
经过所有这些计算，Palo Alto Networks股票的估值被估计为172美元。嗯，即使经历了下跌，该股目前仍在352美元交易。因此，根据我目前的计算，该股在我看来仍然被高估了。
After all those calculations, the value of Palo Alto Networks' stock was estimated at $172. Well, even after the drop, the stock is trading at $352. Therefore, the stock still seems overvalued to me based on my current calculations.
自年初以来，该股已上涨超过91%，但自8月之后达到400美元以来，其表现一直波动不定并呈下行趋势。因此，看来Palo Alto Networks已将其代理式人工智能方面的发展完全计入了市场价格。
The stock has already risen by more than 91% since the beginning of the year, but since reaching $400 earlier after August, its performance has been volatile and trending downwards.
So, it appears that Palo Alto Networks has fully incorporated the developments in proxy artificial intelligence into its market price.
但我认为，其当前市场价格中还计入了更多激励因素，不是吗？我们已经看到代理式AI在企业端的普及，但尚未看到代理式AI在消费端普及对网络安全公司的影响，比如Meta的Muse产品。
我相信市场是在看到实际结果之前就把这些因素计入价格了，因为基于他们已看到的企业端代理式AI的效果，他们正将其与消费端代理式AI类似的积极效果联系起来。
But I think that what is also being included in its current market price is more incentives, isn't that right? We have seen the spread of proxy AI for enterprise use, but we have yet to see the impact on cybersecurity firms in terms of the spread of proxy AI on the consumer side, such as Meta's Muse products.
I believe the market is pricing in these factors before seeing the actual results, because based on what they have seen of the effects of enterprise proxy AI, they are linking it to similar positive effects of proxy AI on the consumer side.
我上一次更新对Palo Alto Networks的评估是在9月29日，当时我说它看起来并不是一个买入机会。在重新评估这家公司大约一个月后，我得出同样的结论：在当前的市场价格下，它看起来并不是一个买入机会。
So, I last updated my review of Palo Alto Networks on September 29 when I said it didn't look like a buy opportunity. After about a month of reassessing the company, I come to the same conclusion that it does not look like a buying opportunity at these market prices.
这个频道对 $PANW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。