PEP 不值得买入，因其自由现金流不足以覆盖股息与股东回报；尽管近期财报超预期，基本面依然疲弱。
逐段跳播
在百事公司股价处于52周最低水平之际，该公司刚刚发布了上一季度的财报。去年，该股下跌了8%，而在过去五年里，它下跌了18%。
Amid PepsiCo's stock trading at its lowest level in 52 weeks, the company has just released its earnings results for the last quarter. Last year, the stock fell by 8%, and over the past five years it has fallen by 18 %.
因此，围绕这家公司的最新动态，有很多内容需要我们深入探讨。他们更新了2026年的预测。现在，我们也有了关于他们当前股息状况的最新指标。
Therefore, there is a lot we need to delve into regarding the updates surrounding this company. They have updated their forecast for 2026. Now, we have updated metrics of what their dividend situation looks like right now .
现在，让我们快速看一下总体背景。正如我所说，过去五年极其艰难。过去两年，该股一直处于显著的下行趋势。如果你关注这个频道，你就知道该股的表现一直不好。
Now, let's take a quick look at the general background. As I said, the past five years have been extremely difficult. The stock had been trending downwards significantly over the past two years .
If you follow the channel, you know that the stock's performance has not been good.
部分问题在于市盈率已大幅下降。5年平均市盈率约为21。请记住，如果看2022年和2023年，该股的市盈率约为25倍。而现在，其市盈率仅为14.28倍。
Part of the problem is that the price-to-earnings ratio has declined significantly. The average 5-year price-to-earnings ratio is around 21. Keep in mind that if you look at 2022 and 2023, the stock was trading at around 25 times earnings.
Right now, they are trading at only 14.28 times.
这合理吗？估值倍数的下降是否合理？这主要取决于一件事。利润和自由现金流的增长速度是否已经放缓？例如，让我们从自由现金流开始，然后转到股息分析表。和往常一样，简单说一下，如果你想下载任何电子表格来观看我的视频，并在你的电子表格中自动获取股票数据，无论是Excel还是Google Sheets，你可以通过描述中的链接查看Ticker Data。
你可以获得7天的免费试用期。我稍后会谈到股息支付指标，但先看看过去五年的自由现金流。我们的自由现金流5年复合年增长率（CAGR）仅为3.78%，而10年CAGR实际上为0%。总体而言，自由现金流并没有真正上升到更高的水平。它非常停滞。
Is this justifiable ? Is the decline in the valuation multiple justified? Well, that is determined primarily by one thing. Has the rate at which profits and free cash flows are growing slowed down ?
For example, let's start by looking at free cash flow by moving on to the dividend analysis sheet . Quickly, as always, if you want to download any of the spreadsheets to watch my videos and get stock data automatically in your spreadsheets, whether Excel or Google Sheets, you can check out Ticker Data via the link in the description.
You can get a free 7- day trial period. I'll talk about dividend payout metrics in a bit, but take a look at the free cash flow over the past five years. We have a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 3.78% for free cash flow, and a 10-year CAGR that is effectively 0%.
Overall , free cash flow did not really rise to higher levels. It was very stagnant.
所以，当你有一只盈利或自由现金流完全没有增长的股票时，市场通常会认为它值更低的估值倍数。这正是我们在百事股票上看到的情况。
So, when you have a stock that is n't growing its earnings or free cash flow at all, the market usually decides that it's worth a lower valuation multiple. This is exactly what we saw in the case of Pepsi stock.
今年年初，当百事发布前瞻指引时，他们预测2026年营收增长在2%到4%之间。这并不算强劲。这几乎跟不上通胀率。
At the beginning of this year, when Pepsi released its forward guidance , they were forecasting revenue growth of between 2% and 4% for 2026. That's not very strong . This hardly keeps pace with the inflation rate.
让我们看看这份最新财报中发生了什么。首先，我们可以注意到，我们在营收和净利润方面都超出了预期，营收超出5.6%。第三季度非GAAP每股收益为2.34美元，超出预期4美分。
Let's take a look at what happened in this latest earnings report. To begin with, we can note that we exceeded expectations in revenue by 5.6% as well as in net profit . Non-GAAP earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.34, exceeding expectations by 4 cents.
但这里有一件重要的事，我们真正需要关注。如果我们打开财报并向下滚动，就会看到他们给出的最新指引。他们预计2026财年净营收指引约为6%。这落在他们此前指引区间的上限之内。总体而言，是的，这是一个好迹象，但还有一点我们应该指出。
But here's the important thing we really need to focus on. If we go to the earnings report and start scrolling down, we will see the updated guidance they have given us. They expect net revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to be around 6%.
This falls within the upper limit of their previous guidelines. Overall, yes , this is a good sign, but there is something else we should point out.
仔细看有机营收，他们现在预计约为3%，这是他们此前2%到4%指引区间的中值。所以，是的，这算是一些好消息，但该股要重回增长轨道仍有很长的路要走。他们做到这一点非常重要。
Looking closely at organic revenues, they now expect around 3%, which is the average of their previous guidance range of 2% to 4% . So, yes, this is somewhat good news, but the stock still has a long way to go to get back on a growth trajectory. It is very important that they do exactly that.
为什么会这样？这是因为如今股息指标看起来并不好。是的，这是一家历史上股息增长惊人的公司，当前收益率为4.55%。仅作比较，看看这只股票的历史收益率。它远高于我们在2022年和2023年看到的水平，当时收益率约为2.5%到3%。
即使看过去十年，这也是比我们在2020年崩盘期间看到的更高的回报。所以，这非常重要。这远高于我们习惯看到的回报。
Why is this the case? Well, that's because dividend indicators don't look good these days. Yes, this is a company that has historically grown its dividends spectacularly, with a current yield of 4.55%.
Just for comparison , look at the historical yield of this stock. It is much higher than what we saw in 2022 and 2023, when the yield was around 2.5% to 3%. Even if we look at the past decade, this is a higher return than what we saw during the 2020 crash.
So, this is very important. This is a much higher return than we are used to seeing.
尽管自由现金流没有增长，该公司仍继续增加股息支付。那么，这自然意味着什么？这意味着股息增长是不可持续的。换句话说，自由现金流的股息支付率在不断上升。
The company continued to increase its dividend payouts even though its free cash flow was not growing. So, naturally, what does that mean? This means that dividend growth is unsustainable.
In other words, the dividend payout ratio from free cash flow is constantly increasing.
例如，2022年，该股产生的自由现金流约为56亿美元，但他们支付了61亿美元的股息。这是不可持续的。这相当于自由现金流的股息支付率约为110%，而现在，过去四年里，我们一直处于一个非常危险的区间。
我们可以看到，2023年它达到了约84.3%。对于像百事这样的公司来说，这或许可持续，但我们不希望它再升高，而这正是已经发生的情况。2024年自由现金流的股息支付率为100.5%。
而2025年达到了99.56%。该公司将所有自由现金流都用于支付股息，
For example, in 2022, the stock generated free cash flow of approximately $5.6 billion, but they paid out $6.1 billion in dividends. This is not sustainable. That's a dividend payout ratio of about 110% of free cash flow, and now, over the past four years, we've been in a very dangerous range.
We can see that in 2023 it reached approximately 84.3% . This may be sustainable for a company like Pepsi, but we don't want it to get any higher, and that's exactly what happened.
The dividend payout ratio from free cash flow for 2024 was 100.5%. And in 2025 it reached 99.56%. The company uses all of its free cash flow to pay dividends,
而且这里还有一个更大的问题。这家公司仍在回购股票。现在，这是否是配置资本的正确的决定是一回事，但再次强调，公司正在缓慢但稳步地回购其股票。那么，为什么这很重要？这很重要，因为我们必须记住，这是另一种向股东返还资本的形式。这些股票回购所用的资本来自自由现金流。
and there's also a bigger issue here. This company is still buying back shares. Now, whether this was the right decision to allocate capital or not is one thing, but again, the company is slowly but steadily buying back its shares.
Now, why is this important? Well, it is important because we must remember that this is another form of returning capital to shareholders. The capital used in these share buybacks comes from free cash flow.
所以，我们可以看到，他们预计2026年将使用约89亿美元的资本作为向股东的现金回报。那么，这意味着什么？这意味着现金股息加上股票回购。89亿美元，但我们可以看到，2025年的自由现金流仅为76亿美元。
因此，除非2026年自由现金流跃升至89亿美元，否则这将是又一个自由现金流无法覆盖股东总回报的年份。再次强调，这算是一个警示信号。
So, what we can see is that they expect to use around 8.9 billion of capital in 2026 as cash returns to shareholders. So, what does that mean? Well, that means cash dividends plus share buybacks.
8.9 billion, but we can see that the free cash flow in 2025 was only 7.6 billion . Therefore, unless free cash flow jumps to $8.9 billion in 2026, this will be another year in which their free cash flow does not cover total shareholder returns. Again, this is somewhat of a warning sign .
那么，这究竟为什么会发生？这只股票怎么了？好，让我们更仔细地看看百事整体的自由现金流指标。如果我们来到这里并输入百事的名称，数据就会加载出来，这要归功于TIKR的数据，而我看到有人指出的一点是，百事的股息比你想象的更安全，因为他们的资本支出预计会下降，而这在一定程度上是事实。
你可以看到，资本支出从2015年到2022年有所增加，但过去两年我们的资本支出总体上实际上一直处于下降趋势。至少到目前为止，我们在2025年看到了下降。
Now, why exactly does this happen ? What's going on with the stock? Okay, let's take a closer look at Pepsi's overall free cash flow metrics . If we come here and enter Pepsi's name , the data will be loaded thanks to TIKR's data, and one of the things I've seen people point out is that Pepsi's dividends are safer than you think because their capital spending is expected to decline, and that has been somewhat true.
You can see that capital spending has increased from 2015 to 2022, but we have actually been on a downward trend for capital spending overall over the past two years. At least we have seen a decline so far in 2025.
但再次强调，即使2026年资本支出继续有所上升，自由现金流的增长速度也不够高，不足以证明相对于自由现金流的股息支付水平是合理的。
But again, free cash flow is not growing at a high enough rate, even if capital spending continues to rise somewhat in 2026, to justify the level of dividend payouts relative to free cash flow.
事实上，我刚刚在X平台上发布了一些内容，比较了百事2026年迄今与2025年的经营现金流、自由现金流和股息支付。那么，我们可以看到的是，截至2026年，经营现金流约为79.5亿美元。
扣除运营费用后，自由现金流约为58.6亿美元。已支付的股息已达59.4亿美元。因此，前三季度的自由现金流仍无法覆盖股息支付。
In fact, I just posted something on Platform X comparing Pepsi's operating cash flow, free cash flow, and dividend payouts so far in 2026 versus 2025. So, here's what we can see .
As of 2026, operating cash flow is approximately 7.95 billion. After deducting operating expenses, the free cash flow becomes approximately 5.86 billion. Dividends paid already stand at 5.94 billion.
Therefore, the free cash flow during the first three quarters still does not cover dividend payouts.
还记得我们刚才看到的那些指引吗，它们没有变化：向股东返还了89亿美元现金，其中也包括股票回购。那么，问题出在哪里？其实，这在很大程度上要归结于自由现金流转换率。看这里。他们预计自由现金流转换率约为80%。
And remember those guidelines we just saw, they haven't changed: $8.9 billion in cash returned to shareholders, which also includes share buybacks. So, what's the problem here?
Well, much of this actually comes down to the free cash flow conversion ratio. Look right here. They are projecting a free cash flow conversion rate of approximately 80%.
好，让我们回到自由现金流分析表，在这里我们开始发现其中一个重大问题。再仔细看看百事。再次提醒，我们要找的是自由现金流转换率。那么，这告诉了我们什么？它告诉我们利润中实际转化为自由现金流的百分比。
我们可以看到，2025年这一比例约为93.11%。但他们表示，2026年这一比例将在80%左右，或许会略高一些。但这仍然是显著的下降。所以，盈利的整体质量看起来不够强劲。
Okay, let's go back to our free cash flow analysis sheet , and here we begin to uncover one of the big issues. Take a closer look at Pepsi. Again, keep in mind that we are looking for the free cash flow conversion ratio.
Now, what does this tell us ? Well, it tells us the percentage of profits that are actually converted into free cash flow. What we can see is that in 2025, this percentage was around 93.11%.
But they state that it will be around 80%, and perhaps slightly higher in 2026. But that is still a significant decrease. So , the overall quality of earnings doesn't look strong enough.
我们在利润率方面存在一些潜在问题。当我们谈论营业利润率，或者一般意义上的利润率时，可以看到营业利润率扩大了195个基点，这主要反映了收购和清算费用、抵免的净正面影响，以及大宗商品衍生品市值收益的正面影响。
所以，是的，你可以指出部分利润率有所扩大，但未必是核心业务模式带来的。
We have some potential problems with profit margins. Now, as we talk about operating margins, or margins in general, we can see that the operating margin has expanded by 195 basis points, which mainly reflects a net positive impact of acquisition and liquidation charges, credits, and the positive impact of market value gains on commodity derivatives.
So, yes, you can point out that some margins have expanded, but not necessarily for the core business model.
不仅如此，当他们表示基础营业利润增长了3%时，要记住，这其中还包括关税退税带来的4%的正面影响。具体来说，这意味着本季度约有1.78亿美元的关税退税。
Not only that, but when they indicate that underlying operating profit has increased by 3%, keep in mind that this also includes a positive 4% impact from the customs duty refund.
To put that in context, that means approximately 178 million in customs duty refunds during the quarter.
那么，这对百事来说是一份好的财报吗？与他们先前的指引相比，确实如此。但毫无疑问，百事仍然不是一只基本面强劲的股票。他们正面临一些严重的问题。收入增速仅略高于通胀。他们在利润率方面存在一些问题，而且归根结底，他们在资本配置方面仍处于糟糕的境地。
So, was this a good earnings report for Pepsi? Well, compared to their previous instructions, it was indeed like that . But there is no doubt that Pepsi is still not a fundamentally strong stock.
They are facing some serious problems. Revenues are growing at only a slightly higher rate than inflation. They are facing some problems with their margins, and ultimately, they are still in a disastrous situation with regard to capital allocation.
2026年自由现金流实际上还无法覆盖股息。再加上他们仍在回购股票，这制约了整体的股东派息比率，这当然意味着可用于再投资的资本更少，阻碍了公司的进一步增长，而此时此刻公司正难以让收入增速超过通胀。
Free cash flow doesn't actually cover dividends as yet in 2026. When you add the fact that they are still buying back shares, it constrains the overall shareholder payout ratio, which of course means less capital to reinvest, preventing further growth in the company at a time when the company is really struggling to increase revenue at a rate higher than inflation.
我刚才提到的一切，正是我们持续看到市盈率（P/E）下降的原因。因此，人们倾向于把百事视为一只历来安全的股票，但我们现在已经看到，这未必属实。即便该股的回报率已接近约4.7%。所以，我不想显得过于悲观。
总体而言，与预期相比，这是一份不错的财报。然而，公司仍有很长的路要走，才能提升对当前股息分配的总体覆盖能力，并为未来的增长计划提供资金。
Everything I just mentioned is the reason why we continue to see the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio falling. Therefore, the tendency is to think of Pepsi as a historically safe stock, but we have now seen that this is not necessarily true.
Even with the return on the stock approaching around 4.7 %. So, I don't want to sound too pessimistic. Overall, this is a good earnings report compared to expectations. However, the company still has a long way to go to enhance overall coverage for current dividend distributions and to fund future growth initiatives .
举个例子来说明我的意思，让我们打开股票估值表，看看百事公司。就从股息贴现模型的角度来看百事。不过，要从反向股息贴现模型的角度来看它。该股目前股价为每股128美元，那么股价中已经计入了多少股息增长？
好，让我们开始摆弄这些数字。2%时，还没到。3%时，还没到。4%时，我们非常接近当前股价。因此，股价中可能计入了约3.9%的永久性股息增长。要记住，5月份的股息上调幅度约为4%，这几乎与我们在该估值模型中看到的完全一致。
因此，假设他们能维持这一水平，该股目前估值合理，尽管过去五年的股东回报非常疲弱。
As an example to illustrate what I mean, let's turn to our stock valuation sheet and take a look at PepsiCo. Just look at Pepsi through the lens of its dividend discount model.
However, look at it through the lens of the reverse dividend discount model . With the stock currently trading at $128 per share, how much dividend growth is priced into the stock?
Okay, let's start messing around with the numbers. At 2%, we're not there yet . At 3%, we are not there yet . At 4%, we are very close to the current share price . Therefore, there is probably about 3.9% of permanent dividend growth priced in the stock.
Keep in mind that the dividend increase in May was around 4%, which is almost directly in line with what we see in this valuation model. Therefore, assuming they can maintain that, the stock is currently fairly valued even though shareholder returns over the past five years have been very weak.
同样值得指出的是，收益率曲线已大幅走阔，尤其是在最近几个月。但就今年全年而言，看看10年期美国国债的收益率，目前为5.23%。一个月前为4.8%，一年前为4.13%。对一些投资者来说，毫无疑问，百事约4.7%的收益率应当与国债5.23%的收益率相竞争。这无疑也会影响这只股票。
It is also fair to point out that the yield curve has widened considerably, particularly in the last few months. But, for this year as a whole, look at the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which is now 5.23%.
A month ago it was at 4.8% and a year ago it was at 4.13%. There is no doubt for some investors that Pepsi's yield of around 4.7% should compete with the Treasury's yield of 5.23%.
This will undoubtedly affect this stock as well.
那么，就这些。这是关于百事股票的最新情况。这不是我个人愿意加入投资组合的股票，但对于持有它的人来说，我希望这项复苏计划能真正开始落实。公司仍有很长的路要走，但我认为这份财报在某种程度上是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，尽管只是一小步。
So , that's all. This is the update regarding Pepsi stock. It's not a stock I'd personally like to add to my portfolio, but for those who hold it, I hope this recovery plan actually starts to materialize.
The company still has a long way to go, but I think this earnings report was somewhat of a step in the right direction, even if it was a small one.
观察点
这个频道对 $PEP 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。