$PG · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-27
重申PG为买入标的，认为按当前价格是极佳投资，估值合理：DCF估值为163美元，对比166美元，按前瞻市盈率看也属合理。营收增长加速至4%，销量上升2.4个百分点；营业利润率接近十年高位，达23.9%，ROIC为17%-19%，而疫情前为10%-12%，不过大宗商品、能源和运输成本上升对利润构成压力，预计EPS增长约5%；对5-10年持有期信心很高。
逐段跳播
宝洁刚刚宣布，其营收增长加速至4%。这并非仅仅来自提价。请注意，公司的销量实际上增长了2.4个百分点。这让我感到意外，因为当你像宝洁过去六年左右那样大幅提价时，销量增长通常会转为负值。
Procter & Gamble just announced that its revenue growth accelerated to 4% . This was not solely a result of price increases. Note that the company's sales volume actually increased by 2.4 percentage points.
This surprises me, because when you raise prices as much as Procter & Gamble has done over the past six years or so, volume growth usually turns negative.
这一切让宝洁在上个季度取得的成绩更加令人印象深刻，公司公布这些业绩后股价上涨，我并不感到意外。全年我一直将宝洁股票评为买入机会，并讨论过它是全球管理最好的公司之一，而且其估值几乎全年都很有吸引力。
All of this makes what Procter & Gamble achieved in its last quarter even more impressive, and I am not surprised to see the stock price rise after the company announced these results.
I have rated Procter & Gamble stock as a buy opportunity throughout the year , and discussed how it is one of the best- managed companies in the world, and that its valuation has been attractive almost all year.
不过，尽管在这些季度业绩公布后我仍然认为情况如此，我们还是来仔细看看，一起回答这个问题。
But although I still believe that this is the case after the release of these quarterly results, let's take a closer look and answer this question together.
所以，尽管营收在加速增长，宝洁的处境并非一片大好。由于大宗商品、能源和运输成本上升，利润正承受显著压力，尤其是在北美。
So, while revenue results are accelerating, things aren't entirely rosy for Procter & Gamble. Profits are under significant pressure due to rising commodity, energy, and shipping costs, particularly in North America.
宝洁通过努力提高效率和生产率来应对这些压力，在某些情况下还借助战略性提价来抵消部分上升的成本。未来几年，跟踪宝洁的分析师预计其每股收益将实现约5%的增长。
Procter & Gamble fights these forces by working to improve efficiency and productivity, and in some cases, resorting to strategic price increases to offset some of these higher costs.
Over the next few years, analysts who follow Procter & Gamble expect it to achieve earnings per share growth of around 5%.
通常情况下，当宝洁的营收增长比如3%时，其每股收益会增长6%或更多。这项业务具有内在的竞争优势：随着营收增长，成本保持相对稳定，从而在营收与盈利能力之间形成更大的差距。
Typically, when Procter & Gamble's revenue grows by, say, 3%, it grows its earnings per share by 6% or more. There is an inherent competitive advantage to the business, where costs remain relatively constant as revenues increase, creating a larger gap between its revenues and profitability.
然而，正如管理团队多年来一直强调并仍在强调的那样，成本压力高于往常。所以，成本在上升。营收也在增长，但公司成本上升的速度快于其他情况下可能出现的水平。
However, as the management team has emphasized and continues to emphasize for several years now, cost pressures have been higher than usual. So, costs are increasing. Revenues are also increasing, but the company's costs are increasing faster than they might be under other circumstances.
不过，宝洁在维持高利润率方面做得非常出色。过去十二个月为23.9%，这几乎是公司十年来实现的最高营业利润率。因此，要向管理团队致敬，他们在多重战争推高油价的环境下、在关税和贸易壁垒处于过去数十年最高水平的情况下、在消费者支出因前面提到的那些宏观经济力量而面临重大挑战之际，仍实现了接近纪录的营业利润率。
However, Procter & Gamble has done a great job of maintaining high profit margins. Over the past twelve months and at 23.9%, this is almost the highest operating profit margin the company has achieved in a decade.
Therefore, a salute to the management team for achieving a near-record operating profit margin in an environment witnessing multiple wars that are driving up oil prices ; With tariffs and trade barriers that are the highest compared to previous decades; At a time when consumer spending is facing significant challenges as a result of those macroeconomic forces highlighted earlier.
这一切都给公司带来了挑战，但他们仍持续实现接近纪录的营业利润率。
All of this presents a challenge for the company, yet they have continued to achieve a near-record operating profit margin.
这是宝洁辉煌纪录上又一项成就，其数十年来展现出卓越的管理，更具体地说，在过去十年里，公司的表现显著改善。可以看到公司投入资本回报率有了切实改善。2017年、2018年和2019年，投入资本回报率在10%到12%之间。
随后出现了围绕疫情的重大动荡。但自经济重启以来，其投入资本回报率有所上升。目前处于17%到19%的区间，远好于疫情前10%到12%的水平。
This is yet another achievement to add to Procter & Gamble’s record, which has shown excellent management over decades, but more specifically during the last decade, the company’s performance has improved significantly.
You can see a tangible improvement in the return on invested capital for the company. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, returns on invested capital ranged between 10% and 12%. Then came the major upheavals surrounding the pandemic.
But since the economic reopening, their returns on invested capital have increased. Currently, it is in the range of 17% to 19%, which is much better than the range of 10% to 12% it was in before the pandemic.
因此，在我看来，宝洁全年的评级都非常有吸引力。这就是为什么我制作了多个视频，强调我认为这是一个极佳的买入机会。
Therefore, the rating was very attractive for Procter & Gamble, in my opinion, throughout the year. That's why I've made several videos in which I emphasize my belief that this was an excellent buying opportunity.
所以，我很高兴看到该股在2026年跑赢大盘。它上涨了15.5%，再加上股息，从风险调整后的角度来看，这是显著的超额表现，因为宝洁是市场上你能买到的最不具风险的股票之一。
So , I'm pleased to see the stock outperform during 2026. It has risen by 15.5% plus dividends, which is a significant outperformance when viewed on a risk-adjusted basis , as Procter & Gamble is one of the least risky stocks you can buy in the market.
没有股票是无风险的，但在你能买到的所有股票中，宝洁属于风险最低的一类。
No stock is risk-free, but Procter & Gamble falls on the least risky side of all the stocks you can buy.
因此，我也更新了对宝洁公司（Procter & Gamble）折现现金流的评估。我现在对公司的估值为每股163美元。它目前股价为每股166美元，这在我的安全边际之内。
Therefore, I have also updated my assessment of Procter & Gamble's discounted cash flows. I now value the company at $163 per share . It is currently trading at $166 per share, which is within my safety margin .
我想说，用折现现金流模型来看，它似乎估值合理；用远期市盈率模型来看，它似乎也估值合理。因此，今年我已经多次以很高的信心重申这一买入建议，最近一次更新是在7月7日。
I would say that it appears fairly valued when using the discounted cash flow model , and it also appears fairly valued when using the forward price-to-earnings model. Therefore, I have repeated this buy recommendation several times this year with a high level of confidence, and it was last updated on July 7.
今天，我将重申这一评级，我认为宝洁公司在当前市场价格下是一项极佳的投资，而且我很有信心，如果你买入并持有未来5到10年，这将是一笔不错的投资。
Today, I will reiterate that rating in which I see Procter & Gamble as an excellent investment at current market prices , and I have a high level of confidence that this will be a good investment if you buy it and hold it for the next 5 to 10 years.
这个频道对 $PG 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。