$PINS

PINS 是排名前十的买入标的;尽管存在竞争劣势且增长放缓,但低估值(远期市盈率 7.8)对应 35 美元公允价值,提供超过 85% 的上行空间。

看涨
《1 Ridiculously Cheap Stock Investors Can Buy Now in October (2026)》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-10-03 · 22 段内容
00:00/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

22 段内容
0:008:53

Pinterest 的股价表现正在下滑。无论你看它 2026 年的表现,下跌了 27%,还是看过去十二个月,跌幅甚至更大。

Pinterest stock price is experiencing a decline in performance. Whether you look at its performance in 2026, it is down 27%, or if you look at the past twelve months, it is down even more than that.

感到 Pinterest 的经营正承受压力是合理的。我还持有 MetaPlatforms 和 Pinterest 的股票。

It is reasonable to feel that Pinterest's operations are under pressure. I also own shares in MetaPlatforms and Pinterest.

让我对 Meta 感到乐观的原因之一,是它有能力大规模投资人工智能并将其整合进业务运营,从而增强相对于 Pinterest 这类较小竞争对手的竞争优势。

One of the things that made me optimistic about Meta is its ability to invest in artificial intelligence on a large scale and integrate it into its business operations, enhancing its competitive advantage against smaller rivals like Pinterest.

因此,Pinterest 的投资者预期会出现显著放缓,促使他们卖出该股,并给它一个非常便宜的估值。

Therefore, Pinterest investors are expecting a significant slowdown, prompting them to sell the stock and give it a very cheap valuation .

这给许多投资者提出了一个问题:这使 Pinterest 成为一个买入机会,还是一只因为即将进一步下跌而应当抛掉的股票?

This raises a question for many investors: Does this make Pinterest a buying opportunity or a stock to get rid of because it is about to fall further?

我们可以看到,股价表现已经消化了投资者的这些担忧。从年初至今,该股已下跌 26.8%。看它一年来的表现,跌幅超过 41%。看它过去 5 年的表现,跌幅超过 62%。它是市场上表现最差的股票之一。

We can see that the stock price performance has already absorbed these concerns from investors. Since the beginning of the year until now, the stock has fallen by 26.8%. Looking at its performance over the course of a year, it has declined by more than 41%.

Looking at it over the past 5 years, it has decreased by more than 62%. It was one of the worst performing stocks in the market .

我最近才买入 Pinterest 的股票,目前已经处于亏损状态。我以大约每股 34 美元买入,随后在股价跌破该价位时加仓。

I only recently bought Pinterest shares , and I'm already in a loss position. I bought it at approximately $34 per share, then strengthened my position when the share price fell below that.

正如我提到的,当我跟踪一家公司并持有其股票时,我会非常关注风险,对吧?我会大量关注负面因素,而我提到目前我看到的最大负面因素之一就是竞争劣势。

As I mentioned, when I follow a company and own shares in it, I focus a lot on the risks, right? I look at the negative aspects a lot, and I mentioned that one of the biggest negatives I see right now is the competitive disadvantage.

Pinterest 与 Meta 之间的差距对 Pinterest 来说正在恶化。简单说,它们没有 Meta 那样的规模去投资人工智能。

The gap between Pinterest and Meta is getting worse for Pinterest. Simply put , they don't have the scale to invest in artificial intelligence the way Meta does.

我没有看到 Pinterest 利用自己更小的规模去变得更敏捷、更轻便,以对抗 Meta 已被证明的规模优势。因此,我看不到 Pinterest 有有效的应对。

I have not seen Pinterest take advantage of its smaller size to be more agile and lightweight to counter the scale advantage that Meta has proven. Therefore, I do not see an effective response from Pinterest.

但让我感到鼓舞的是 Pinterest 的收入增长。它显示出以两位数速度的显著收入增长,这在我看来不是一家正在失去竞争优势的公司会有的表现。在最近一个已结束的财年,Pinterest 的收入增长了 16.6%。2024 年,收入增长了 18.5%。

But what encourages me is the growth in revenue at Pinterest. It shows significant revenue growth at a double-digit rate, something I would n't expect to see from a company that is losing its competitive edge.

In its most recent completed fiscal year, Pinterest's revenue increased by 16.6%. In 2024, revenues increased by 18.5%.

把这些数字放在背景中来看,如果看整个广告行业,它在2024年和2025年以高个位数增长。因此,Pinterest的业务增速是其所在行业增速的两倍以上。

To put these numbers in context, if we look at the advertising industry as a whole, it grew at a high single-digit rate during 2024 and 2025. So, Pinterest's business grew at more than double the growth rate of the industry it operates in.

因此,在那些将更多预算分配给Pinterest而非广告行业其他可用类别的广告主中,它正在获得更大的份额。展望未来,华尔街分析师预计Pinterest将继续在广告行业中获取份额,但这一增长的步伐将会放缓。

2026年他们预测增长16%,几乎是行业平均水平的两倍,但2027年出现明显放缓,降至13%,然后在2028年降至11.5%。

Consequently, it is gaining a larger share among advertisers who allocate more of their budgets to Pinterest than to the rest of the available categories in the advertising industry.

Looking ahead, Wall Street analysts expect Pinterest to continue gaining a share of the advertising industry, but the pace of that growth will slow down. Well, for 2026 they are forecasting 16% growth, which is almost double the industry average, but for 2027 there is a noticeable slowdown to 13%, and then to 11.5% in 2028.

对Pinterest来说,这些仍然是跑赢行业的营收增长率,作为股东,如果公司在2027年和2028年实现这一水平的增长,我会非常高兴。

These are still revenue growth rates that beat the industry for Pinterest, and as a shareholder, I would be very happy if the company achieved this level of growth in 2027 and 2028.

就我个人而言,我并不预期这一水平的增长。我认为这是对Pinterest这两年增长的夸大估计。我估计Pinterest在2027年和2028年的营收增长率为高个位数。我预计Pinterest在未来两年增长7%至10%,如果Pinterest实际实现的营收增长落在我7%至10%的估计区间内,我会感到满意。

Personally, I don't expect this level of growth. I think this is an exaggerated estimate of Pinterest's growth in these two years. I estimate Pinterest's revenue growth rate to be in the high single digits for 2027 and 2028.

I expect Pinterest to grow between 7 and 10% over the next two years, and I would be pleased if Pinterest actually achieved revenue growth within my estimate of 7 to 10%.

但华尔街分析师的增长预测比我更乐观。对于一家预计将以行业专家所见的水平增长、以及以我预期的水平增长的公司来说,Pinterest的估值比我预期的更便宜,而我的预期低于我所提到的那些预测低两位数增长的专家的预期。

我预期高个位数增长。然而,即便按我高个位数的估值,我也觉得对于一家拥有这些增长前景、这些利润率、且处于这一行业的公司来说,7.8倍的远期市盈率便宜得令人意外。

But analysts on Wall Street are predicting better growth than I am. Pinterest's valuation is cheaper than I expected for a company that is expected to grow at levels seen by industry experts and at levels I anticipate, which are lower than the expectations of the experts I referred to who are predicting growth in the lower double digits .

I expect high single-digit growth. However, even with my high single-digit valuation, I feel that a forward P/E ratio of 7.8 is surprisingly cheap for a company with these growth prospects, these profit margins , and in this industry.

但在Pinterest身上,我们看不到这一点,对吧?增长没有加速。事实上,公司尚未达到其人均营收的峰值,Pinterest的人均营收曾接近100万美元,现在为85万美元。所以,它仍低于2022年达到的水平。

But with Pinterest, we don't see that, do we? There is no acceleration in growth. In fact, the company has not yet reached its peak revenue per employee, which was approaching $1 million on Pinterest, and is now at $850,000.

So , it's still below the level it reached in 2022.

所以,我们没有看到这些好处,我也不预期会看到,因为Pinterest没有达到Meta那样的规模去以同等水平投资AI。

So, we're not seeing those benefits, and I don't expect to see them because Pinterest doesn't have the scale to invest in AI at the level Meta reached.

因此,我预期会看到这一差距在这里扩大。我预期会看到Meta与Pinterest在竞争优势方面的差距不断扩大。因此,我把这种悲观情绪大量纳入了我对Pinterest的评估和预期。

令我意外的是,尽管纳入了这些低于行业专家估计的悲观增长预测,以及更高的估计风险,我已经在Pinterest的风险因子中对此进行了调整,提高了贝塔以计入更高的风险。

Therefore, I expect to see a widening of this gap here. I expect to see a growing gap between Meta and Pinterest in terms of competitive advantage. Therefore, I incorporated a lot of this pessimism into my assessment and expectations for Pinterest.

I am surprised to see that despite incorporating these pessimistic growth forecasts, which fall below industry experts' estimates, and the higher estimated risk , I have adjusted this in my Pinterest risk factor, raising the beta to take the higher risk into account.

所以,我把这些预期中的很多都纳入了我对Pinterest的评估,而我仍然看到这里存在超过85%的显著上行机会。我计算出Pinterest股票的合理价值为35美元,而当前市场价格为19美元。

因此,尽管我的预期低于行业平均水平,我仍然看到这里存在显著的上行机会。

So, I incorporated a lot of those expectations into my assessment of Pinterest, and I still see a significant upside opportunity here that exceeds 85%. I calculated the fair value of Pinterest stock at $35, while the current market price is $19.

Therefore, I see a significant upside opportunity here despite my expectations being below the industry average.

因此,我将重申我把Pinterest列为前10只股票之一的排名,我在9月30日更新了这一排名。我完全确信这一分类。

Therefore, I will reaffirm my ranking of Pinterest as one of the top 10 stocks, and I updated that on September 30th. I am fully convinced of this classification.

尽管它是过去九到十二个月以及过去五年表现最差的公司之一,但估值看起来足够有吸引力,增长预期也已充分下调。如果Pinterest实现任何接近我预期的增长,即高个位数百分比,我相信它长期将为股东带来出色的回报。

Although it has been one of the worst performing companies over the past nine to twelve months , and the past five years, the valuation looks attractive enough, and growth estimates have been sufficiently reduced.

If Pinterest achieves any growth close to what I expect, which is a high single-digit percentage, I believe it will deliver excellent returns for shareholders in the long run.

观察点

2027年和2028年的营收增长率
高个位数(7-10%)
未来两年财报
若实现则支持该论点;若增速低于此区间,或在利润率未扩张的情况下显著超出预期加速,则削弱该论点

这个频道对 $PINS 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-03看涨本条
Pinterest 的股价表现正在下滑。无论你看它 2026 年的表现,下跌了 27%,还是看过去十二个月,跌幅甚至更大。
2026-09-02看涨
我接下来要强调的顶级买入股票是Pinterest,我计算其公允价值为39美元,市场价格为22美元。鉴于这一差异,我计算出Pinterest股票有超过78%的上涨空间。
原话 12:12 ›
看完整历史 ›
美股听风