$PINS · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-01
Pinterest 被严重低估(DCF 估值 30 美元,而股价为 19 美元,远期市盈率 7.8 倍),营收增长 12%,但现金流下滑,管理层尚未证明其能善用这一业务,且看不到 2026 年的催化剂;信心正在减弱,因此说话者保留三分之二的持股,并可能卖出三分之一以进行税损收割。
逐段跳播
Pinterest 录得12%的营收增长,达到11.74亿美元,并在第三季度末月活跃用户数达到6.61亿的历史峰值。
Pinterest recorded revenue growth of 12% to reach $1.174 billion, and reached a historic peak of 661 million monthly active users by the end of the third quarter.
但情况并非全然乐观,因为公司还宣布经营性现金流下降了2%。投资者惩罚了这只股票,在公司公布季度财报后的某一天,股价下跌了7%。
But things weren't entirely rosy, as the company also announced a 2% decrease in operating cash flow . Investors punished the stock , and shares fell by 7% sometime the day after the company announced its quarterly financial results.
当然,我对此感到失望。我的投资组合中持有 Pinterest 股票,更重要的是,我把它列为目前可以买入的前十大股票之一。
Of course, I'm disappointed by that . I own Pinterest shares in my portfolio, and more importantly, I rank it as one of the top 10 stocks you can buy right now.
所以,看到这只股票表现不佳,不只是本周和今天,而是整个2026年都如此,我感到失望。
So, I am disappointed to see stocks underperforming not just this week and today, but throughout 2026.
我现在怎么看 Pinterest?我还认为它是买入机会吗?我还认为它是值得买入的最佳股票之一吗?我打算怎么处理我的股票?我会卖出这些股票吗?我会加仓吗?
What do I think about Pinterest now? Do I still think it's a buying opportunity? Do I still think it's one of the best stocks to buy? What am I going to do with my shares? Am I going to sell these shares? Am I going to add more to my portfolio?
Pinterest 的营收增长一直很强劲,月活跃用户数也增长强劲。但实际上,在同比用户增长方面,Pinterest 的表现与 Meta 相似,并在关键用户类别上优于 Reddit,这一类别包括来自北美、美国和加拿大的用户,他们代表的是更赚钱的账户,能带来更高的每用户平均收入。
Revenue growth has been strong for Pinterest, along with strong growth in the number of monthly active users. But in reality, Pinterest performed similarly to Meta in terms of year-on-year user growth, and better than Reddit in the critical user category , which includes those from North America, the United States, and Canada, who represent more profitable accounts that generate higher average revenue per user.
但 Pinterest 为实现这些业绩不得不增加支出。公司调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)同比增长了11%。经营性现金流下降了2%,自由现金流下降了6%。
But Pinterest had to spend more to achieve these results. The company's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 11% year-on-year.
Cash flow from operations decreased by 2%, and free cash flow decreased by 6%.
通常,当你看到一家公司营收增长12%时,你会期望它的现金流至少改善12%。而这次,现金流却下降了。作为股东,看到公司在美国和加拿大新增400万用户,我很兴奋。那是4%的增长。这是一个饱和的市场。
Pinterest 在这个饱和市场中的持续增长令人印象深刻。
Typically, when you see a company growing its revenue by 12%, you would expect to see its cash flow improve by at least 12%. In this case, the cash flow decreased. As a shareholder, I was excited to see the company add 4 million users from the United States and Canada .
That was a 4% increase. This is a saturated market. Pinterest's continued growth in this saturated market has been impressive,
美国和加拿大的每用户平均收入增长了10%,达到8.38美元。欧洲的每用户平均收入为1.21美元,本季度有所下降。这大约相当于美国和加拿大每用户平均收入的六分之一。在世界其他地区,每用户平均收入只有23美分,比美国和加拿大的每用户平均收入少40倍。
Average revenue per user from the United States and Canada increased by 10% to $8.38. Average revenue per user in Europe is $1.21, and it has decreased this quarter. This is roughly equivalent to one-sixth of the average revenue per user from the United States and Canada.
For the rest of the world, it costs only 23 cents. That's 40 times less than what it generates from average user revenue in the United States and Canada .
因此,可以说这是用户增长最重要的类别。他们正在从这一领域实现增长。从长远来看,这对 Pinterest 投资者是个好兆头。
Therefore, it can be argued that this is the most important category for user growth. They are achieving growth from this sector. In the long run, this bodes well for Pinterest investors.
财务指引也合理。对于第四季度,他们预计营收约为14.5亿美元,相当于季度中段增长10%,调整后利润约为5.58亿美元。
The financial guidelines were also reasonable. For the fourth quarter, they expect revenues of around $1.45 billion, representing a 10% mid-quarter increase with adjusted earnings of around $558 million.
因此,这是营收的持续增长,从第三季度到第四季度本就预期如此,因为第四季度是季节性季度,营收更高,盈利能力也更强。
Therefore, this is a continuous growth in revenue, which is expected when moving from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, which is a seasonal quarter with higher revenues, and also higher profitability.
所以,虽然营收增长了12%,但他们的总成本和费用也大幅上升至11.43亿美元,高于去年同期的9.9亿美元。几乎所有类别都有增加,其中大部分增幅来自营收成本、研发以及销售和营销。
So, while revenues increased by 12%, their total costs and expenses also rose significantly to 1.143 billion, up from 990 million in the same period of the previous year. There were increases in almost every category, with the bulk of the increases resulting from the cost of revenue, research and development, and sales and marketing.
但我不介意研发、销售和营销方面的这些成本增加。营收成本的增加表明公司必须支付更高的计算成本,这也反映了当前这个时代,人工智能正在推高数据中心计算能力的成本。
But I don't mind if these costs increase in research and development, sales and marketing. The increase in revenue costs indicates higher computing costs that the company has to pay, and this is a sign of the current era where artificial intelligence is driving increased costs in data center computing capacity .
在研发领域,公司多年来并未展现出开发产品和服务的能力。他们基本上只依赖一个想法。除了那款展示人们在平板电脑等设备上保存的图片的应用之外,他们没有开发出任何东西。
In the field of research and development, the company has not shown, over the years, an ability to develop products and services. They were essentially relying on just one idea.
They haven't developed anything outside of their app that displays the images people save on their tablets, etc.
我想说,我要肯定管理团队对 Apple 在 2021 至 2022 年前后推出的隐私政策变化所做的适应,这些变化让社交媒体公司更难追踪用户行为,也让广告定向投放变得更困难。Pinterest 对这些变化做出了很好的调整。
所以,这是他们处理得不错的一件事。这是我少数能举出的例子之一:管理团队在困难局面中采取了行动,并有效地适应了变化。我从 2019 年起就一直关注这家公司。
I would say that I would give credit to the management team for adapting to the privacy policy changes that Apple made around 2021-2022, which made it harder for social media companies to track user behavior, and also made ad targeting more difficult.
Pinterest made a good adjustment to those changes. So, this is something they handled well. This is one of the few instances where I can highlight something the management team did during a difficult situation and adapted to it effectively, and I have been following this company since 2019.
所以,开发新产品和新服务的例子一直很少,也不常见。因此,他们并没有获得资本配置高效管理者的好名声。事实上,情况恰恰相反。
So, instances of developing new products and services have been rare and infrequent. Consequently, they did not gain a good reputation as effective managers of capital allocation. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
股东和市场整体上的投资者都对研发投入持怀疑态度,尤其是因为研发正是公司支付股权激励的主要类别,而这类支出已大幅增加,却没有展现出实实在在的成果。
Shareholders and investors in the market as a whole are skeptical about research and development efforts, especially since this is the primary category in which the company pays equity-based compensation , which has increased significantly without showing tangible results.
所以,这是我并不介意公司花钱的一个类别,但它必须向我展示成果。你需要向我展示持续的成果,而不是十年里只做出一件事,而我在 Pinterest 身上看不到这一点。
So, this is a category where I don't mind the company spending money, but it has to show me results. You need to show me consistent results, not just one thing over a decade, and I don't see that from Pinterest.
你可以看到,股权激励费用的增长延续到了上个季度,从去年同期的 2.35 亿上升到 2.92 亿,增幅接近 25%。
You can see that increase in stock-based compensation continuing into the last quarter , rising to 292 million, up from 235 million in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 25%.
另一个令人失望的地方是,公司本季度没有回购任何 A 类普通股。他们在发行限制性股票单位时出于税务目的回购了股份,并授予了价值 1 亿美元的限制性股票,但这比他们去年分配的金额要少。
Another disappointment was that the company did not repurchase any Class A common stock during this quarter. They repurchased shares for tax purposes when issuing restricted stock units and granted restricted stock worth 100 million, but that was less than the amount they allocated last year.
当你面对股价下跌、投资者群体认为你的股票被低估,而你却不动用资本回购股份时,这很令人意外,尤其是考虑到他们今年已经在股票回购上花费了超过 20 亿美元。
When you have a declining stock price and an investor base that feels your stocks are undervalued, and you don't use your capital to buy back shares, that's a big surprise, especially considering they've already spent over $2 billion this year on share buybacks.
这是否表明管理团队不再觉得股票被低估了?当你有一只明显被低估的股票时,这会引发疑问,投资者担心它可能是一个价值陷阱,而不是一只有价值的股票。
Does this indicate that the management team no longer feels that the stock is undervalued? This raises questions when you have a stock that is significantly undervalued , and investors worry that it may be a value trap rather than a valuable stock.
因此,Pinterest 目前的远期市盈率仅为 7.8。这接近该股几年来达到的最低价格水平。当你审视盈利增长和营收增长时,两者都超过了市盈率,这表明 PEG 比率也非常低。
Therefore, Pinterest is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 7.8. This is close to the lowest price this stock has reached in several years. When you look at earnings growth and revenue growth, both exceed the price-to-earnings ratio, indicating that the PEG ratio is also very low.
我也更新了对 Pinterest 的贴现现金流评估,并再次下调了我的估计。我想提醒投资者,我对 Pinterest 整个 2026 年的估计显示,我修改过的几乎每一项估计都是向下修正。
I have also updated my assessment of Pinterest's discounted cash flows , and revised my estimates downwards once again . I would like to warn investors that my estimates for Pinterest throughout 2026 indicated a downward revision in almost every estimate I changed .
因此,这只股票看起来被低估了,但业绩表现却持续弱于预期。现在,我对该公司的估值为每股 30 美元。当前市场价格是 19 美元。这只股票看起来被低估了约 61%。该公司目前的市值为 105 亿美元。
Therefore, the stock appeared undervalued , but performance continues to be weaker than expected. Now, I value the company at $30 per share. The current market price is $19. The stock appears to be undervalued by about 61%.
The market value of this company is now $10.5 billion.
在现阶段,似乎没有能推动该股在 2026 年走高的催化剂。作为股东,我对公司的表现感到失望。
At this stage, there doesn't appear to be a catalyst that will drive the stock higher in 2026. As a shareholder, I am disappointed with the company's performance.
这只股票看起来像是一个理想的收购目标。当前的管理团队没有充分利用公司的资产和知识产权。也许另一家公司可以做到。
This stock looks like an ideal acquisition target. The current management team is not making the most of the company's assets and intellectual property. Perhaps another company could do that.
有几家公司可能适合收购;它们非常便宜,市值仅为 105 亿美元,月活跃用户超过 6 亿。Pinterest 上以图片形式出现的许多产品都可以从 Walmart 或 Amazon 买到。
如果你在 Amazon 或 Walmart 上找不到它们,那这些产品很可能在其他任何地方也找不到。所以,这对 Amazon 和 Walmart 来说是合理的。
There are several companies that might make sense to acquire; they are very cheap with a market value of only $10.5 billion and more than 600 million monthly active users. Many of the products that appear as images on Pinterest can be purchased from Walmart or Amazon.
If you can't find them on Amazon or Walmart, you probably won't find those products anywhere else. So, it makes sense for Amazon and Walmart.
这在他们销售额和现金流中只占很小一部分,他们可以轻松做到。要么是这个,要么也许是最高领导层的变动。但对我来说很清楚,而且越来越清楚的是,当前的管理团队难以利用这项业务的价值,他们每三个月就继续让投资者失望。
This represents a very small part of their sales and cash flow, and they can easily accomplish this. Either this, or perhaps a change in the top leadership. But it is clear to me, and has become increasingly clear, that the current management team is finding it difficult to capitalize on the value of this business, and they continue to disappoint investors every three months.
我提到过,我把这只股票列为今年你可以买入的最佳股票之一,其价值是显而易见的,不是吗?关键在于如何利用这一价值,而当前的管理团队未能做到这一点。
I mentioned that I ranked this stock as one of the best stocks you can buy this year, and the value is clear, isn't it? It's all about leveraging that value, something the current management team has failed to do.
因此,我对他们实现这一目标的能力正在失去信心。我越来越不相信这家公司会继续交出我所期待的结果,但我重申,我认为它的价值是当下市场上能找到的最好的。
Therefore, I am losing confidence in their ability to achieve that. I am becoming less convinced that this company will continue to deliver the results I expect from it, but I reiterate that I believe its value is the best you can find in the market right now.
但我对他们能否在2026年前释放这部分价值的信心正在减弱。我会保留三分之二的持股,而我在Pinterest买入的剩余三分之一,很可能会在今年年底前卖出,出于税务目的进行亏损收割。
那部分股票我买入价约为34美元。我会卖掉这部分持仓,保留另外三分之二,那部分我买入价约为每股19美元。
But my confidence is waning in their ability to tap into this value by 2026. I will keep two-thirds of my shares, and the remaining third that I bought in Pinterest I will likely sell before the end of this year for tax purposes of harvesting losses .
I bought that share of stock for approximately $34. I will sell that stake and keep the other two-thirds that I bought at approximately $19 per share.
这个频道对 $PINS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。