PLTR 仍属买入，但信心有所下降；当前估值合理（股价约 189 美元，对比公允价值 184 美元），因此相较更低的入场点，上行空间有限。
逐段跳播
Palantir 的营收增速在上一季度再次加快。公司录得有史以来最高的年度营收增速，达到 93%。该股股价在今年早些时候逼近每股 100 美元后，目前正经历强劲反弹。
Palantir's revenue growth rate accelerated again in the last quarter. The company recorded its highest ever annual revenue growth rate of 93%. The stock price is experiencing a strong recovery after approaching US$100 per share earlier this year.
我以约每股 107 美元的价格买入了 Palantir 股票，当时我将对 Palantir 股票的评级上调为买入。
I bought Palantir shares at a price of about US$107 , and at that point I raised my recommendation to buy Palantir shares.
但在股价逼近每股 200 美元的情况下，我是否仍认为 Palantir 股票是一个好的买入机会？推动 Palantir 业绩表现的是其向企业客户群的扩张。
But do I still think Palantir shares are a good buying opportunity with their price approaching $200 per share? What drives Palantir's performance is its expansion into an enterprise customer base.
Palantir 一直擅长获取政府合同，但近期已扩张至企业客户领域，其在美国的商业营收同比增长加速至 149%。
Palantir has always excelled at securing government contracts, but it has recently expanded into corporate roles, with its commercial revenue growth in the United States accelerating to 149% compared to the same period last year .
我从中看到，当初买入 Palantir 股票时最令我兴奋的主要机会，在于存在数百万家企业，而政府和政府机构的数量相对较少。
I saw in that the main opportunity that excited me when buying Palantir shares, given the existence of millions of companies compared to the relatively small number of governments and government institutions .
因此，正是这些更广泛的机会促使我投资 Palantir。随着它开始在美国消费领域增长，Palantir 注意到，它已充分提升了对客户的价值主张，足以让那些希望通过使用其服务来改善自身业绩的企业加大投入。
Therefore, these broader opportunities are what encouraged me to invest in Palantir. As it began to grow in the US consumer sector, Palantir noticed that it had improved its value proposition to its customers enough to justify increased investment by companies seeking to improve their performance by using its services.
Palantir 管理层表示，那些试图直接使用大规模语言模型的公司是在不必要地浪费成本和时间。
Palantir management has stated that companies that attempt to directly use massive language models are wasting costs and time needlessly.
至于那些不使用 Palantir 的机构，它们的 token 计数大幅增加，却没有带来任何真正的价值。
As for institutions that do not use Palantir, they are experiencing a huge increase in their token counters without any real value.
但我认为，我们并不存在分歧、或者说我们没有足够依据去分歧的一点，是 Palantir 服务的使用。这为使用 Palantir 服务的公司带来了显著价值。
But I think what we don't disagree on, or what we don't have sufficient justification to disagree on , is the use of Palantir services. This provides significant value to companies that use Palantir's services.
我从 Inter 的高客户留存率、其最大客户支出的增加，以及其客户数量的增长、老客户的回流、订单积压、业务量的增长和剩余履约义务的增加中看到了这一点的证据。
I see evidence of this in Inter’s high customer retention rate, increased spending by its biggest customers, as well as an increase in the number of its customers, the return of existing customers, the backlog of orders, the growth in its volumes, and the increase in remaining performance commitments.
但 Palantir 面临的最大挑战是，以足够低的价格提供服务以吸引更多企业客户，同时维持公司的长期盈利能力。
But the biggest challenge facing Palantir is offering its services at a price low enough to attract more corporate clients, while maintaining the company's long-term profitability.
在其美国业务运营中，公司签订了价值 21 亿美元的合同，同比增长 271%。我觉得这一点很有意思，因为 Palantir 告知投资者，它在企业或政府客户的现场实际派驻了现场工程师，以部署技术并帮助他们利用技术来改进产品和服务。
In its US business operations, the company entered into contracts worth $2.1 billion, an increase of 271% compared to the same period last year . I found this interesting, as Palantir informs investors that it has field engineers physically deployed at the sites of its corporate or government clients to implement the technology and help them use it to improve products and services.
而其他公司只有光鲜的销售工程师，对吧？他们并非技术意义上的工程师，而更像是销售人员，去接触企业并试图向他们推销各种应用，却不在应用人工智能改进服务方面提供真正的技术支持。
While others just have polished sales engineers , right? They are not engineers in the technical sense, but rather more like sales representatives who approach companies and try to sell them various applications , without providing real technical assistance in applying artificial intelligence to improve services.
但 Palantir 不同意这种说法，它表示：“这些人并非真正意义上的工程师，他们主要是销售人员。”同样值得注意的是，如前所述，Palantir 90% 的营收增长伴随着非常高的利润率。
But Palantir disagrees, saying: "These are not engineers in the true sense, they are primarily sales representatives ." It is also worth noting that Palantir's revenue growth, as previously mentioned at 90%, comes with very high profit margins .
公司宣布其有史以来最高的调整后自由现金流，达到 12.2 亿美元，占其经营活动现金流与销售额之比的 63%。这是一个异常出色的数字，在我跟踪的所有公司中都属于最好的之一，而且它实现了同比增长115%的增速。
The company announced its highest ever adjusted free cash flow of $1.22 billion, representing 63% of its cash flow from operations to sales. This is an exceptional figure, among the best of all the companies I follow, and it has achieved a growth rate of 115% compared to the same period last year .
所以，不要为Palantir额外花一大笔钱。Palantir并不通过激励、促销或折扣来实现这些销售。
So, don't spend a large amount of extra money on Palantir. Palantir does not offer incentives, promotions, or discounts to achieve these sales.
这些是强劲的有机销售，源自公司为客户提供的价值。市场上的有机需求来自其源头，也就是Palantir为客户业务带来的价值。
These are strong organic sales stemming from the value the company offers its customers. Organic demand in the market comes from the source, which is the value that Palantir adds to its clients' businesses.
今年早些时候，我有过一个很好的机会，以大约100美元的价格投资Palantir。当时其未来市盈率非常有吸引力，接近两年来的最低水平。
Earlier this year, I had a great opportunity to invest in Palantir at a price of around $100. This was at a very attractive future price-to-earnings ratio, close to its lowest level in two years.
2025年，该公司的估值升至超过120倍的未来市盈率。当时股价接近200美元，有时甚至超过这一水平。当时，我警告投资者，股价已被高估。
In 2025, the company's value rose to a future price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 120. At that time, the stock price was approaching $200, and sometimes even exceeding it. At that time, I was warning investors that the stock price was overpriced.
这是一家伟大的公司，但我在等待它的估值回落，以便抓住更好的投资机会。幸运的是，当Palantir股价跌至每股约100美元时，我们得到了更好的机会。
It was a great company, but I was waiting for its value to drop so I could seize a better investment opportunity. Fortunately, we got a better opportunity when Palantir's stock price dropped to around $100 per share.
该公司的估值已降至约60倍的未来市盈率，我认为对于像Palantir这样一家优秀的公司来说，这非常有吸引力——它正经历收入、销售和利润的快速增长，并拥有竞争优势和广阔的市场机会。
The company's value has fallen to a future price-to- earnings ratio of around 60, which I consider very attractive for an excellent company like Palantir, which is experiencing rapid growth in revenue, sales and profits, with its competitive advantages and broad market opportunities.
然而，在未来市盈率达到80倍时，我对Palantir的热情不如在未来市盈率为60倍时那么高。这意味着估值在短短几个月内上升了33%。所以，这在一定程度上削弱了我的热情。
However, at a futures price-to- earnings ratio of 80 , I feel less enthusiastic about Palantir than I did at a futures price-to- earnings ratio of 60. That's a 33% increase in valuation in just a few months. So, this somewhat dampened my enthusiasm.
此外，我更新了Palantir的贴现现金流估值模型，使用该模型来看，该股似乎估值合理。我计算出的公允价值为184。当前市场价格为189，差距仅为2.5%，处于安全边际之内。
In addition, I updated Palantir's discounted cash flow valuation model , and the stock appears to be fairly valued using this model. I calculated the fair value at 184. The current market price is 189, a difference of only 2.5%, which is within the margin of safety.
因此，我认为这一评估是合理的。正如我提到的，Palantir的股价已从每股约105美元的低点大幅上涨。目前它已达到每股约190美元。
Therefore, I consider this assessment fair. As I mentioned, Palantir's stock has risen significantly from its lows of around $105 per share. It has now reached approximately $190 per share.
因此，我在9月3日更新了最新的Palantir评估，以高度信心重申我的买入建议。
Therefore, I updated my latest Palantir review on September 3, reaffirming my buy recommendation with high confidence.
这一评估取得了出色的表现。这是我在2026年的首选股票之一。但正如我提到的，在这些价位上，我对Palantir的热情和信心都有所下降。
This assessment achieved excellent performance. This was one of my top stock picks in 2026. But as I mentioned, I am less enthusiastic and confident about Palantir at these levels.
所以，在这个视频中我将更新我的买入建议，但在这些价位上，我已不再完全确信这一评级。因此，我会把我的信心水平下调至中等。
So, in this video I will update my buy recommendation, but I am no longer entirely confident in this rating at these levels. Therefore, I will lower my confidence level to medium.
我认为这是一家很棒的公司，但如果它的价格再便宜一点，我会对它更加兴奋。
I think it's a great company, but I would be even more excited about it if it was a little cheaper .
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。