$PLTR · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-29
PLTR 仍维持买入，但信心从「中」下调至「低」：按 85 倍远期市盈率、其 192 美元公允价值与 199 美元股价来看，该股属于估值合理而非低估；若市盈率高于 100，他不会加仓。在 11 月 2 日财报公布前，他认为下行空间大于上行空间，因此不会买入，待业绩公布后再做决定。
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Palantir 的股价目前接近历史最高点，我当然对此感到高兴。今年早些时候，在每股约106美元时，我把 Palantir 加入了投资组合，并将该股评级上调为“买入”，而且我在今年全年反复重申了这一推荐。
Palantir's stock is trading near its all-time highs , and of course I'm happy about that . Earlier this year at around $106 per share, I added Palantir to my portfolio and upgraded the stock to a "buy" rating , and I have repeated this recommendation throughout the year.
公司计划于2026年11月2日公布季度财务业绩，投资者在问我这是否仍是买入机会。我会在本视频中回答这个问题，同时回顾我对 Palantir 的期待、更新我的评估，并估算 Palantir 股票的合理价值。
The company is scheduled to announce its quarterly financial results on November 2, 2026, and investors are asking me if it is still a buying opportunity. I will answer this question in this video , as well as review what I look forward to from Palantir and update my assessment, and estimate of the fair value of Palantir stock.
当然，吸引我关注 Palantir 股票的原因之一，是公司的业务正在蓬勃发展。
Of course, one of the reasons that attracts me to Palantir stock is that the company's business is booming .
营收增长非常迅速，业务蓬勃发展。事实上，管理团队表示，对 AI 主导地位的需求如今已经起飞，而 Palantir 是唯一一家已证明有能力把 token 转化为实际经济价值的公司。
Revenues are rising very rapidly and business is booming. In fact, the management team stated that the demand for AI supremacy has now taken off, and Palantir is the only company that has proven its ability to turn tokens into actual economic value.
总营收加速增长93%，达到19亿美元。美国商业营收——我最看好的板块——在上一季度也增长了149%。上一季度签订的合同总价值同比跃升49%，美国剩余业务合同价值上升124%。营业利润率升至47%，营业利润增至9.12亿美元。
经营现金流跃升至12亿美元，利润率为63%。公司资产负债表非常出色，拥有超过92亿美元现金和短期投资，且零负债。
Total revenue accelerated by 93% to reach $1.9 billion . Commercial revenues in the United States, the sector I am most excited about, also grew by 149% in the last quarter ended.
The total value of contracts concluded in the last quarter ended jumped 49% year-on-year , and the value of remaining business deals in the United States rose 124%. Operating profit margin rose to 47%, and income from operations increased to $912 million.
Cash flow from operations jumped to $1.2 billion, representing a margin of 63%. The company has an excellent balance sheet with over $9.2 billion in cash, short-term investments and zero debt.
这些正是一家估值高企的公司身上你会想看到的数字，而且这种估值提升仍在持续。Palantir 目前的远期市盈率为85，按这一指标衡量，这是该股在整个2026年交易中最高或最接近最高的价格水平。
These are the numbers you'd want to see from a company that's trading at a high valuation, and that valuation increase is ongoing. Palantir is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 85, which is the highest or closest price the stock has traded at according to this metric throughout 2026.
当然，2025年这只股票也曾有过估值更高的时期。它一度以125或130的远期市盈率交易。如果你还记得，我当时就警告投资者 Palantir 股票被高估了，而在我指出该股在远期市盈率超过100时已被高估之后，你也看到 Palantir 股价出现了下跌。但那是去年的事了。
Of course, there were times when this stock traded at a higher valuation in 2025. At one point , it was trading at a forward P/E ratio of 125 or 130. And if you recall, I warned investors at those times that Palantir stock was overvalued, and you saw Palantir's stock price drop after I pointed out that the stock was overvalued when it traded at a forward P/E ratio above 100 . But that was last year.
自那以后，业务已显著改善。资产负债表好多了。客户更多了。总营收更好了。利润率更好了，而且整个 AI 行业也更加成熟。
Business has improved significantly since then . The balance sheet is much better. She has more customers. The total revenue is better. The margins are better, and the AI industry in general is more mature.
这可能为 Palantir 股票提供高于其历史水平的估值溢价理由。基于以上，我认为 Palantir 以85倍远期市盈率交易，属于合理估值。
This may justify a higher valuation premium than Palantir shares have historically been. Based on the above, I believe that trading Balantir with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 85 makes it a fair value.
这意味着，如果 Palantir 的股价超过100倍远期市盈率，我仍会觉得估值太贵。这并不代表我会在那个估值卖出我的 Palantir 股票，但我肯定不会有兴趣在那个价位继续买入更多。
This means that if Palantir's share price exceeds a forward price-to- earnings ratio of 100, I will still feel that the valuation is too expensive. This does not mean that I will sell my Palantir shares at that valuation, but I certainly would not be interested in buying more of them at those prices.
今天，我也更新了对 Palantir 股票的合理价值估算，略微上调了我对公司将产生的自由现金流的预期。这个估值模型考虑了 Palantir 从今天到非常遥远的未来——也就是十年及以后——预计产生的自由现金流。
我用加权平均资本成本把这些现金流折现为现值，其中包含了我对公司相关风险的估计。
Today, I also updated my fair value estimate for Palantir shares, with a slight increase in my expectations for the free cash flows the company will generate. This valuation model takes into account Palantir’s estimated free cash flows from today to the very distant future , i.e., a decade and beyond.
I discount those cash flows to their present value using the weighted average cost of capital, which includes my estimate of the risks associated with the company.
经过所有这些计算，我估计这家公司的合理价值为192美元。相比之下，录制本视频时其当前市价为199美元。因此，这落在我的安全边际之内，这也表明 Palantir 股票的估值处于其合理价值水平。
After all those calculations, I estimate the fair value of this company to be $192. This is in comparison to its current market price of $199 at the time of recording this video.
Therefore, this falls within my margin of safety , which also indicates that Palantir's stock is valued at its fair value.
无论你用远期市盈率还是折现现金流模型来衡量公司的表现，这只股票看起来都处于合理估值。Palantir 今年开局不佳，但已经回升，自2026年初以来上涨超过12%，大致与标普500的回报相当。
Whether you measure the company's performance using a forward price-to-earnings ratio or a discounted cash flow model, the stock appears to be fairly valued . Palantir started the year poorly, but has recovered and is now up more than 12% since the beginning of 2026, roughly matching the returns of the S&P 500.
正如我提到的，今年早些时候股价跌破110美元时，我将该股评级上调为买入机会。那也是我为投资组合买入 Palantir 股票的时候。我的每股平均成本约为106美元。
As I mentioned, I upgraded the stock to a buy opportunity earlier this year when the stock price dipped below $110. That was also the time when I bought Palantir stock for my portfolio. My average cost per share is about $106.
我已将 Palantir 上调为买入机会，此前我将其归类为中等信心水平的买入机会。因此，今天我对自己 Palantir 股票的评级做出了重大调整，下调了我对买入评级的信念和信心水平。
此前我将其评为中等信心水平，而今天我将其下调为低信心水平。
I have upgraded Palantir to a buy opportunity, and I had previously classified it as a buy opportunity with a medium level of conviction. Therefore, today I made a significant change to my Palantir stock rating, lowering my conviction and confidence level in the buy rating .
Previously, I rated it as having a medium level of conviction, and today I have lowered it to a low level of conviction.
这是因为价格已经太高，我不再觉得它被低估了；而一家估值合理的公司即将发布财报，风险又高于平均水平，所以我已经下调了自己对这一评级的信心程度。
This is due to the price being so high that I no longer feel it is undervalued, and with a fair-priced company heading towards earnings reporting with above-average risk, I have lowered my confidence level in this rating.
那么，回到这个问题：我认为你应该在财报更新前买入 Palantir 股票吗？我会说不会。如果我有兴趣买入 Palantir 股票，我会等到财报公布之后再决定如何配置。
So, to answer the question, do I think you should buy Palantir shares before the earnings update? I would say no. If I am interested in buying Palantir stock, I will wait until after the earnings announcement to make my allocation decision.
这只股票看起来并没有被低估，事实上，我认为下行风险多于上行机会，尤其是在这些盈利数据方面。由于投资者掌握的信息少于专业投资者、知情投资者和其他投资者，我会等到公司季度财报中所有信息公布之后，再在接下来的一天或几天里做出决定。
The stock does not appear to be undervalued , and in fact I see more downside risks than upside opportunities, especially with regard to these earnings figures . Since investors have less information than professional, informed, and other investors, I will wait until I have all the information released in the company’s quarterly financial report, and then make my decision the following day or days.
这是因为从公司公布季度财务业绩到现在，涌现了大量大多数投资者难以消化的信息。因此，等到公司发布这些数据、再在掌握全部信息的情况下做决定，会更稳妥、风险更低。这能让你与其他更专业、掌握更多信息的投资者处于更平等的地位。
That's because between the time the company announced its quarterly financial results and today, a lot of information has emerged that is difficult for most investors to absorb.
For this reason, it is safer and less risky to wait until the figures are released by the company, and then make your decision with all the information at your fingertips. This puts you on a more equal footing with other, more professional investors and investors who have more information.
就我个人而言，在这次面向投资者的更新之前，我不会买入或卖出 Palantir 股票。我会等到数据公布之后，在看到更新内容、并听取管理层对未来预期之后，再决定我打算怎么处理 Palantir。
Personally, I will not buy or sell Palantir stock before this update for investors. I will wait for the figures to be released before making my decision about what I plan to do with Palantir, after I see the update and hear from the management team about their expectations for the future.
观察点
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。