$PLTR · Schwab Network · 2026-10-30
PLTR 跑赢了 CrowdStrike、Datadog、Snowflake 等同行,在10月科技股抛售中按百分比计受冲击最小,在标普500下跌之际保持上行势头,但仍与指数高度相关。财报前,它在三角形突破后守住接近186的50日均线支撑;历史高位的隐含波动率意味着期权卖方押注价格将维持在相对低位,若下周继续上涨,可能令他们意外。
逐段跳播
我们来谈谈 Palantir。它确实从我们6月看到的低点上涨了很多,但如果把它放到更广泛的市场背景下看,它今天受到了科技板块抛售的影响,那么当你把它与大盘的表现相比较时,你看到了什么?
Let's talk about Palantir . I mean, it's certainly risen a lot from the lows we saw in June, but when you look at it more broadly against the market, it's affected today by the sell-off in the technology sector, but what do you see when you compare it to the performance of the broader market?
是的,我认为 Palantir 是那种站在最前列、格外突出的名字之一。但我觉得与标普500相比,它确实很突出,因为它属于领涨股之列,而其他一些科技股则小幅下跌,有些甚至大幅下跌。Palantir 保持了部分上涨动能。
Yes, I think Palantir is one of those names that stands out at the forefront. But I think when compared to the S&P 500, it really stands out because it was among the leading stocks, while some other technology stocks declined slightly, and in some cases, significantly.
Palantir has maintained some of that upward momentum.
事实上,你在过去一个月里就能看到这一点。自10月初我们开始看到标普指数出现轻微下行趋势以来,Palantir 一直在创出更高的新高,而现在它已开始从那里小幅回落。
In fact, you can see that over the past month. Since the beginning of October when we started to see a slight downward trend in the S&P index , Palantir has been making new higher highs, and now it has started to pull back from that a little.
现在的问题是,鉴于它处于一个水平支撑位,并且有可能跌破一些倾斜向上的趋势线,它会失去这一领先地位,还是会保持住?
The question now is, given its presence at a horizontal support level, and the possibility of it breaking some of the sloping upward trend lines , will it lose that lead or will it maintain it?
标普500与 Palantir 之间的相关性非常高。事实上,大多数时候,该公司与整体指数的相关性几乎完全一致,Marley。
I mean, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Palantir is very high. In fact, most of the time, the company maintains an almost identical correlation with the overall index, Marley.
肯定存在一些差异。不过,从走势路径来看,两者仍然非常接近。从规模来看,Palantir 是这一组同类公司中的领先者,这组公司包括 CrowdStrike、DataDog 和 Snowflake。
There are definitely some differences. However, in terms of path, they remain very close to each other. In terms of size, Palantir is the leader in this group of peers, which includes CrowdStrike, DataDog, and Snowflake.
我认为,当你观察这个板块时,你会发现这些是10月份受到影响的一些名字。这是一张我们按百分比来看的三个月日线图。所以,我看到所有这些名字都受到了影响。不过,Palantir 可能是受这一冲击影响最小的,我认为这不仅反映了它更广泛的采用基础,或许也反映了它吸引了投资者的关注,而其他公司可能只是它的替代选择。
I think when you look at this sector, you will find that these are some of the names that were affected during the month of October. This is a daily chart for three months that we look at on a percentage basis .
So, I saw an effect on all these names. However, Palantir may have been the least affected by that impact, and I think this reflects not only their wider adoption base, but perhaps also their capture of investor attention, whereas other companies may simply be alternatives to that name.
但就目前而言,即便按百分比来看,Palantir 的股价相比其他一些名字仍保持韧性。但我们单独来看 Palantir,在这份财报发布之前分析一下技术面,因为你提到我们正接近关键水平。
那么,单从技术面来看,你认为这里哪些水平比较突出?
But for now, Palantir's shares remain resilient compared to some other names, even on a percentage basis. But let's look at Palantir on its own and analyze the technical aspects before this earnings report, because you mentioned that we are approaching critical levels.
So, looking at the technical aspects alone, what levels seem prominent to you here ?
首先是50日移动均线,目前大约就在股价水平附近,也就是185-186左右。这意味着要突破这条50日移动均线。现在,价格已从该水平小幅回落。尾盘有一些买盘,最后十五分钟左右获得了一些支撑。
但这将是我们自8月财报公布出现大幅向上跳空以来,首次看到突破50日移动均线。
First, the 50-day moving average, which is currently at approximately the stock price level, i.e., around the 185-186 level. This means a breakout from this 50-day moving average.
Now, the price has fallen slightly from that level. There are a few buys towards the end of the day, with some support received in the last fifteen minutes or so . But this would be the first time we see a breakout of the 50-day moving average since the August earnings announcement, which saw a significant upward gap.
开启这轮上涨的那个大幅向上跳空缺口已经突破了166的阻力位。现在,我们有一个以197附近为中心的对称三角形,而今天代表着对这个三角形的突破。不过,该股仍守住了186附近的水平支撑位,50日移动均线就在那里。
That large upward gap that started this rise has broken through the resistance level at 166. Now, we have this symmetrical triangle centered around the 197 mark, and today represents a break of this triangle .
However, the stock is maintaining a horizontal support level around 186, where the 50-day moving average is located .
RSI 动能指标并没有大幅下降。它确实有所回落,但我们没有看到新低,所以它并没有真正在压低价格。隐含波动率处于历史高位,我认为,Marley,这推动了今天部分期权活动,因为我们看到大量卖出多头合约,尤其是在197.5这一水平,甚至更远到今日到期合约205的行权价。
The RSI momentum indicator did not decline significantly. I mean, it has definitely dropped, but we are not seeing new lows, so it is not really driving the price down. Implied volatility is at an all-time high, and I think that's driving, Marley, some of today's options activity as we see a lot of selling in long contracts, particularly at the 197.5 level and even further out at strike prices of 205 on contracts expiring today.
这表明可能存在一些“价差”策略,或者也许是卖空多头合约,预期价格将保持在相对较低的水平。总之,这波上涨从接下来几分钟就在这里开始,如果它延续到下周,随着价格上行,“Gamma”如果真的开始上升,可能会让一些期权卖方感到意外,Marley。
This suggests that there may be some "spread" strategies, or perhaps short selling of long contracts, with the expectation that the price will remain relatively low. Anyway, this upward movement starts here in the next few minutes, and if it continues into next week, it might surprise some options sellers if "Gamma" really starts to rise as the price moves upward, Marley.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 16 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。