$PLTR · Schwab Network · 2026-11-02
说话者认为 Palantir 并未放缓:上季度 93% 的同比增长本季度应会被超越,随着 AI 应用普及,商业业务增长(上季度约 150%)将持续。Palantir 不绑定特定模型,算力变便宜反而对其有利;其高市盈率应以远期 ARR 来衡量。主要风险是估值倍数压缩——即便业绩强劲,股价也可能下跌。
逐段跳播
我们稍微聊聊 Palantir。我们总是期待这家公司拿出最高水平的加速和增长,而它一次又一次让我们感到意外。上个季度我们终于走到那一步了吗?我不这么认为。我认为我们会看到持续的加速。
Let's talk a little about Palantir. We always expect the highest levels of acceleration and growth from this company, and we are repeatedly surprised. Did we finally reach that point last quarter?
I don't think so. I think we will see continued acceleration.
我认为背后有一些支撑力量在不断起作用,比如 AI 的 token 成本在下降,我们也在获得更智能的模型。这让 Palantir 的工作变得更容易——它基本上就是进入一家公司,以各种方式落地 AI、部署他们的软件,并从中获得投资回报(ROI)。
I think there are some supporting forces working behind this that are constantly happening, such as the token cost of AI is decreasing and we are getting more intelligent models.
And it's making it easier to work for Palantir, which is basically going into a company and implementing AI in various ways, implementing their software, and extracting a return on investment (ROI) from that.
这些 token 越便宜、模型越聪明,他们的工作就越容易。我认为这个季度我们会再次看到这一点。所以,我看不到 Palantir 有任何放缓。我认为他们更愿意更快地向前推进。
The cheaper these tokens become and the smarter the models become, the easier it is for them to work. And I think we'll see that again this quarter. So, I do n't see any slowdown in Palantir.
I think they would rather move forward more quickly.
这对市场来说够不够?我不知道。过去几周甚至几个月,我们一直处在一个艰难的市场中。所以我认为,他们需要巨大的成功才能让股价出现任何显著变化。这是肯定的。
Will this be enough for the market? I don't know. We have been going through a tough market for the past few weeks or even months. So, I think they will need huge success to make any significant change in the share price. That's for sure.
但是,Palantir 正在打造的业务目前并不在这场争斗之中。这家公司是否已经把自己定位成——无论 AI 其他领域发生什么,他们都会赢?
But, Palantir is building a business that is not in that fight right now. Has this company positioned itself in such a way that no matter what happens in other areas of AI, they will win?
这一切对 Palantir 没有影响。Palantir 实际上是模型中立的。它可以与任何模型合作,无论是最好的还是最便宜的;它会在需要的那一刻找到合适的模型。因此,这家公司在很大程度上使自己免受当前市值担忧和其他情况的影响。
All this has no effect on Palantir. Palantir is actually model neutral. It can work with any model, be it the best or the most affordable; It finds the right model at the moment of need.
Therefore, the company has largely protected itself from the current market capitalization concerns and other situations.
更确切地说,如果 AI 基础设施或算力无法维持其价格,对 Palantir 反而更好,因为那样算力和 token 的成本会进一步下降。所以总的来说,我认为它在这方面相当安全。
Rather, it can be said that if AI infrastructure or compute power fails to maintain its price, it is better for Palantir, because then the cost of compute and tokens will decrease further.
So all in all, I think it's pretty safe from all of this.
如果你持有大量基础设施类股票,这可以提供一些分散化。
If you have a lot of infrastructure stocks, this can provide some diversification.
我只说一点:按市盈率来看,这家公司的估值非常高,但我认为用市盈率来判断这家公司是错误的,因为它增长得非常快。我想想,我们有什么数据?上个季度同比增长93%。我坚信这个季度我们会超过这个数字。
Let me just say one thing, the company's valuation is very high according to its PE ratio, but I think it would be wrong to judge this company by the PE ratio, because it is growing very quickly.
I think, what do we have? 93 percent growth in the last quarter compared to the previous year. I firmly believe that we will surpass that in this quarter.
所以,我认为我们不能根据过去的收入来做决定。我们应该看 ARR 或 AI labs 这类前瞻性数据。我认为那才是正确的方式。
So, I don't think we can make decisions based on past income. We should instead look at ARR or forward-looking data like AI labs. I think that's the right way.
估值仍然相当高,但如果你重仓基础设施类股票,这可能是一个不错的分散化选择。这家公司近年来另一个相当明显的发展是商业客户的大幅增长,不仅是客户数量,还有这些客户带来的收入。现在从多元化角度看,感觉平衡多了。
Valuations are still quite high, but if you're heavily invested in infrastructure stocks, this could be a good diversification. Another development of the company that has been quite evident in recent years is the massive growth in commercial customers, not only in the number of customers, but also in the revenue generated from those customers.
It now feels much more balanced in terms of diversity.
几年前一个主要的批评是“这是一家严重依赖美国政府合同的公司”。我们现在是否可以说,情况仍然如此,但它已经不像几年前那么重要了?
A major criticism a few years ago was that "it's a company that relies heavily on US government contracts." Can we now say that the situation is still the same, but it is not as important as it was a few years ago?
当然,它已经不像过去那么重要了。我认为它的商业业务增长得非常快。上个季度是100,我记不清确切数字了,但大概是同比增长150%。它以令人难以置信的速度增长,我认为它实际上会继续下去。
Of course, it's not as important as it used to be. I think the commercial side of it is growing very quickly. Last quarter it was 100, I do n't remember the exact number, but probably 150 percent compared to the previous year.
It's growing at an incredibly fast pace and I think it will actually continue.
政府合同的问题在于它们耗时很长,对吧?实际上,它们即将开始并完成。商业领域推进得快得多,而且我认为现在有很大的压力,尤其是来自 CEO 和上市公司的压力,要求落地 AI、制定 AI 战略,并从中看到一些利润。
Uh, the problem with government contracts is that they take a long time, right? In fact, they are about to begin and be completed. The commercial sector is moving much faster, and I think there's a lot of pressure right now, especially from CEOs and public companies, to implement AI, have an AI strategy, and see some profit from it.
如果你试图自建系统,自己动手是一项艰难的任务。所以,站出来创建,抱歉,是使用 Palantir,这就是为什么我认为他们看到了商业增长,而且我认为这种增长会持续,因为商业领域的这类压力和竞争在不断增加。
If you try to build your own system, it's a difficult task to do it yourself. And so, coming forward and creating or, sorry, using Palantir, and that's why I think they're seeing commercial growth and I think it's going to continue because this kind of pressure and competition is increasing in the commercial sector.
所以,我认为他们本季度在商业方面也会看到亮眼的数字。
So, I think they will see big numbers commercially this quarter as well.
这也是一家由创始人经营的企业。Alex Karp 是一位很有活力的领导者,对某些人来说也许有争议,很像 Elon Musk 或 Steve Jobs。
It is also a founder-run business. Alex Karp is a dynamic leader, perhaps controversial to some, much like Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
公司为这样一位有远见的领导者获得了多少溢价?这是不是一种可以让你忽略前瞻市盈率的情况,仅仅因为掌舵的是同一个人?
How much premium does the company receive for this kind of visionary leader? Is this a situation where you can look beyond the forward PE, just because there is one person at the helm?
我认为是这样。而且我认为这不仅适用于公司的估值,也适用于他们签下的合同。他们没有 Palantir 那样的溢价。所以,我认为他们可以去找公司谈交易,尤其是在商业方面,说:“看,这就是你将得到的团队。”
“这些是我们之前在所有客户身上展示过的成果。”我认为他们很容易把交易谈成。
I think so. And I think this applies not only to the valuation of companies, but also to the contracts they sign. They don't have that premium like Palantir. And so, I think they can go into deals with companies, especially on the commercial side, and say, "Look, this is the team you're getting."
"Here are the results we've shown with all these customers before." And I think it's very easy for them to sell the deal.
他们的需求肯定没有问题。过去一年,他们在组建团队和将大量工作自动化方面做得很好。所以,他们不再有任何人员方面的限制。他们能够实现自动化,并围绕这一点构建了很好的软件。
There is no problem with their needs, that's for sure. Over the past year, they have done a good job of building their team and automating much of their work. So, they no longer have any staff constraints.
They have been able to automate and have built good software around it.
所以,我认为他们可以收取高额溢价,而且我认为他们也已经能够开始大规模实施,这对他们的增长意义重大。这也是我认为他们本季度会表现非常好的另一个原因。
And so, I think they can charge big premiums and I think they've also been able to start implementing on a large scale, which is huge for their growth. This is another reason why I think they will do very well this quarter.
你认为 Palantir 在实施或执行方面有哪些风险?这很难找到,因为在我看来,目前的主要风险是估值倍数压缩。我认为这是最大的问题。
what risks do you see for Palantir in terms of implementation or execution? It's hard to find, because in my opinion the main risk right now is multiple compression. I think that's the biggest thing.
但很难在他们工作的实施和他们所销售的产品方面找到风险,因为这些模型正一天天变得更好、更便宜。对 Palantir 这样的公司来说,这是完美的局面。
But it's difficult to find risks in terms of the implementation of their work and the products they are selling, as these models are getting better and more affordable day by day.
This is the perfect situation for a company like Palantir.
所以我认为,市场对 Palantir 正在做的事情有巨大的需求。很难在他们产品的实施方面找到风险。主要风险是估值。存在这样一种可能:即使他们表现非常好,股价也可能不涨,反而下跌。所以我认为,估值倍数压缩是目前最大的问题。
So I think there is a huge demand for what Palantir is doing. It is difficult to find risks in the implementation of their products. The main risk is valuation. There is a possibility that even if they perform very well, the share price may not increase, but rather decrease.
And so I think multiple compression is the biggest problem right now.
观察点
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 16 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。