$PLTR · Schwab Network · 2026-11-03
PLTR 第三季度表现强劲——营收增长 96% 至 23.1 亿美元,全年指引上调至约 85.3 亿美元,美国商业收入首次超过政府收入——但股价下跌约 5%,因投资者质疑增长是否已见顶。美国商业订单走弱,且第四季度指引指向增速逐级放缓,这意味着若增长放缓,估值倍数收缩并不令人意外;分析师意见分歧,一位交易员只愿在更低价格买入该股。
逐段跳播
我们来看 Palantir 股票的日线图。公司昨天盘后公布了财报。目前我们看到这只股票下跌了大约5%。在科技板块整体表现不错的一天里,这是最差的表现。
Let's focus on the daily chart of Palantir stock. The company announced its earnings results after the market closed yesterday. We are now seeing a decline of approximately 5% in this stock.
It's the worst performance on a day that generally looks good for the technology sector.
大多数软件股都在上涨,但市场可能对公司的增长水平有些失望——它的增长确实亮眼,但当然,考虑到它的历史,可能有人会问我们是否已经达到了增长峰值。
Most software stocks are trading higher, but there may have been some disappointment regarding the company's level of growth, which was impressive, but of course, given its history, some questions may have arisen as to whether we have reached peak growth.
你、Molly 和我都在分析这些数字。看起来不算太差,但正如你指出的,Alex,这不是我们大概率已经习惯的这类公司会给出的数字,不过我确实看到分析师给出了相当多的目标价调整。所以,他们似乎对目前看到的情况并不太失望。
I mean, you, Molly and I were analyzing these numbers. It didn't look too bad, but as you pointed out, Alex, it's not the kind of numbers we're probably used to from a company like this, but I do see a fair number of target price adjustments from analysts.
So, they don't seem too disappointed by what we've seen here.
是的,目前 Palantir 股价在早盘交易中下跌约4.5%到5%,尽管我们谈到了强劲的季度业绩以及对其未来展望的大幅上调。
Yes, at the moment, Palantir shares are down about 4.5% to 5% in early trading, despite the strong quarter we talked about and the significant upward revision of its future outlook.
第三季度营收增长96%,达到23.1亿美元,好于预期。美国商业收入首次超过了政府部门收入。这是这份财报中最核心、最根本的故事。
Third-quarter revenue rose 96% to $2.31 billion, better than expected. For the first time ever, commercial revenues in the United States have surpassed government sector revenues .
That was the essential and fundamental story in this report.
Palantir 还将全年营收预期上调至约85.3亿美元,好于预期,但令人担忧的是这种快速增长能否持续。美国商业预订量弱于一些投资者的期望,而第四季度指引则指向增速的层层放缓。这也是华尔街的一个争议点。
Palantir also raised its full-year revenue forecast to around $8.53 billion, better than expected, but the concern is whether this rapid growth will continue. Commercial bookings in the United States came in weaker than some investors had hoped, while fourth-quarter guidance points to a cascading slowdown.
This is also a point of contention on Wall Street .
补充一下你的观点,Sam,Jefferies 仍给出“跑输大盘”评级,目标价80美元,它表示现在的争论转向了 Palantir 能否在更具挑战性的对比基数下维持增长加速。
To emphasize your point, Sam, Jefferies, which still recommends "underperform " with a price target of $80, says the debate is now turning to whether Palantir can maintain its growth acceleration under more challenging comparisons.
RBC 也持“跑输大盘”观点,理由是交易价值增长放缓以及剩余履约义务趋于稳定。
RBC also adopts an " underperforming" view, citing a slowdown in deal value growth and a stabilization of remaining performance commitments .
另一方面,乐观阵营的花旗将目标价上调至265美元。Truist 则将目标价上调至250美元,两者都表示 Palantir 是企业 AI 的主要受益者,Truist 还指出其营收增长现已连续13个季度加速。
On the other hand, the optimistic camp at Citi raised the target price to $265. While Truist raised the price to $250, both indicate that Palantir is a major beneficiary of enterprise AI, with Truist noting that revenue growth is now accelerating for 13 consecutive quarters.
所以业绩很强,但正如我们所知,Sam,市场对这家公司的预期本来就已经非常高。投资者仍在寻找证据,证明 AI 驱动的增长步伐对 Palantir 来说是可持续的,但到了某个时点,如果增长放缓,估值倍数收缩可能并不令人意外。
So the results were strong, but expectations were already very high for this company, as we know, Sam. Investors are still looking for evidence that the AI-driven growth pace is sustainable for Palantir, but at some point if growth slows, a contraction in multiples may not be surprising.
这大概就是我今天看到的情况。反应略微偏负面,但数字仍然非常强劲。是的,这个财报季的预期非常高。
This is kind of what I see today. A slight negative reaction, but the numbers are still very strong. Yes, expectations are very high this earnings season.
早上好,Tim。你会怎么处理这只股票的试仓交易?是的,早上好,Sam。我在看一只和这个板块许多其他股票类似的股票,它在过去几个季度的财报中大幅跑赢,但在这里却没有向上突破的进展。
Good morning, Tim. How would you handle a trial trade for this stock? Yes, good morning, Sam. I'm looking at a stock like many others in this sector, which has significantly outperformed in earnings over the past few quarters, but isn't making any upward progress here.
所以我认为,我们几章前看到的那些评级终于开始显现出来,正如 Alex 就复杂因素减少所指出的那样。所以,我可能会喜欢这只股票在更低位置的表现。从技术角度看,近期财报留下的15.5美元区域在图表上是一个不错的财报缺口。
So I think the ratings we saw several chapters ago are finally starting to show, as Alex pointed out regarding the shrinking of complications. So, I might like the stock at lower levels here.
The $15.5 area of recent earnings represents a good earnings gap on the chart from a technical perspective.
因此,我会卖出11月150/145的传统看跌期权价差。我获得略低于1美元的净权利金,风险回报约为20美分,并留有足够的下跌安全边际。
Therefore, I will sell the spreads for traditional put options for November at 150/145. I get a net credit of slightly less than a dollar, a return on risk of about 20 cents, with a sufficient safety margin to fall.
从季节性规律看,11月是股票表现最好的月份;我们看看 Palantir 会不会也跟随这一走势。最后,我们看到宏观经济层面出现了一些缓和,10年期国债收益率跌破5%,油价跌破100美元。
所以,情况看起来并不算一片大好,但很可能也没有一些人担心的那么糟,而这笔交易正体现了这一点。
November is the best month for stocks seasonally; we'll see if Palantir follows suit. Finally, we are seeing some easing on the macroeconomic front, with the yield on 10-year bonds falling below 5% and oil dropping below $100.
So, things don't look exactly rosy , but they're probably not as bad as some feared, and that's what this deal embodies.
很好。受此影响,Palantir 股价下跌5%。财报不错,我们对此非常认可。
Good. Palantir shares are trading down 5% as a result. Good earnings report, we really appreciate that.
观察点
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 16 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。