$PLTR · Tom Nash · 2026-11-03
PLTR 值得买入:其抛售反映的是获利了结、估值担忧、增长见顶假设和科技板块情绪疲弱,而非其业务本身,同时营收正以 96% 增长、估值倍数已收缩。说话者偏保守的 2030 年情景目标价为 978 美元,约合 431% 的上行空间,假设增速放缓至 80%、市盈率 55、净利率 46%;他计划四年内实现至少 49% 的年化回报。
逐段跳播
眼下这个市场格局让我有种当年 7 美元时的感觉。这可能是从这只股票上实现世代财富的最后机会,因为昨天发生的事彻底改变了一切。
I'm getting piloter $7 vibes right now from this market setup. This might be the last chance to make generational wealth from this stock because what happened yesterday absolutely changes everything.
我完全没想到市场对这家公司的看法和实际情况之间的差距有多大、有多远,因为我们在财报里看到的是一个样子,而市场反应的却是完全不同的另一个现实,而这个差距终将收敛。
I had no idea how far and how big the gap is between what the market thinks about this company and what actually is going on because we saw one thing in the earnings. We saw the market react to a whole different reality and that gap is going to close.
昨天,太不可思议了。Pilot 公布了出色的财报,股价却跌了 3%。听起来挺普通、挺平淡、挺没新意的。那有什么特别的?这就是又一次 7 美元的布局,因为现在市场又一次完全没看懂 Palunteer,而我要在这个视频里说明这是怎么回事、为什么,以及最主要的——你如何利用这一点来创造世代财富。
Yesterday, unbelievable. Pilot came out with great earnings. Stock is down 3%. Sounds pretty standard, pretty bland, pretty plain vanilla. What's so special about it? Well, this is the $7 setup again because right now the market is absolutely missing the plot again on Palunteer and I'm going to show in this video how, why, and mainly how you can use this to create generational wealth.
Palanteer 的利润增长得离谱,营收增长得离谱,每一项指标都是。我现在就展示给你看,但基本上,昨天我们看到的情况,就好比你在创建一个电子游戏角色,把每一项属性都拉满到 99。
就是这样,这就是 Palanteer 的版本。没错,好到几乎让人难以置信。
Palanteer grew earnings insanely. It grew revenues insanely. every single metric. I'm going to show you right now, but basically what we saw yesterday, imagine you're creating a video game character and you're maxing out every single attribute to 99.
This is it. This is the Palanteer version of that. Exactly. Almost unbelievable to think how good this is.
营收增长 96%,是 Palanteer 历史上最高的。美国商业业务增长 148%。40 法则达到 158。净收入留存率 165。你得体会一下这有多离谱。每股收益增长了 144%。
所以公司超出了市场预期,上调了指引,显然也超过了指引,而且营收增长还在加速,从 93% 升到 96%。可市场却在抛售。
Revenue growth 96%. The highest in Palanteer's history. 148% growth in US commercial. 158 rule of 40. 165 net dollar retention. I guess understanding how insane that is. And earnings per share grew by 144%.
So the company beat consensus. It increased its guidance. It obviously beat the guidance and it is still accelerating the revenue growth going from 93 to 96. And yet the market is selling off.
现在,Palanteer 看数字的话,正在做一件历史上很少有公司做到过的了不起的事。你看这个,这是 Palunteer 的美国商业业务增长。它目前每年增长 148%,但按季度算是增长 29%。
这个板块几乎每个季度都在增长近 30%。看看一年前他们做到多少,3.97 亿。看看这次他们做到多少,说准确点,9.84 亿。就说一年做到十亿吧。所以基本上,这本身就非常惊人。
Now, Palanteer, when you look at the numbers, is doing something incredible that not a lot of companies ever done in history. If you take a look at this, this is the US commercial growth of Palunteer.
It is currently growing at 148% per year, but quarterly it is growing at 29%. This segment is growing almost 30% every single quarter. Look at what they did just a year ago, 397 million.
Look at what they did in this $1 billion. Let's be accurate. 984 million. Let's call it a billion in one year. So basically, this is impressive on its own.
但当你听到 Alis Karp 在电话会上说的话,他基本上已经告诉了你接下来会发生什么,而所有人都忽略了。他在电话会上说:“各位,到 2028 年,我们这个板块的规模将达到 150 亿。”
那是两年后的事。没有人把这一点计入价格。那 150 亿没有被计入价格。而当它实现时,所有人都会追上来,而他们中的大多数人都赚不到我们那种跨越式的大钱,就像我们在 2022、2023 和 2024 年做到的那样。
But when you hear what Alis Karp said on the call, he basically told you what's coming and everybody ignored it. He said on the call, "Guys, we're headed to 15 billion in this segment by 2028."
That's in two years. Nobody's pricing this in. That 15 billion is not priced in. And when it happens, everybody will catch up and most of them will not make the quantum leap money just like we did it in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
我想先从净利润说起。净利润实际上从一年前的 4.76 亿,就在这里,增长到了一年内的 11.3 亿。一年之内基本翻了三倍。现在每股收益 0.44,想想这家公司一年前是什么样子,简直离谱。
所以净利润在一年内翻了三倍,同时增长达到每年 96%,而公司表现最好的部分——美国商业业务——每年还在再增长 50%。
And I want to start basically with the net earnings. Okay, net income actually went up from 476 right here just a year ago to 1.13 billion in one year. In one year essentially tripling.
Now EPS earnings per share at 0.44 actually is insane to think about where this company was just one year ago. So net income is actually tripling in a year at the same time when growth is up 96% per year and the best most producing aspect of the company which is the US commercial growth is growing another 50% per year.
所以增长在上升,利润在改善,同时远期市盈率从去年三季度的 112 降到了现在的 51。所以这家公司现在便宜了一倍,甚至更多,一年内从 112 降到 51,而这一年里它的净利润翻了三倍,营收增长了近 100%。
而且它目前的美国商业业务增长达到 150%。这是一个非常理想的布局。
So have growth going up profits improving at the same time the forward PE went down from last year Q3 112 to currently 51. So the company is now twice as cheap if not more dropping from 112 to 51 in a year in a year where it has tripled net income and increased revenues by almost 100%.
And it's currently growing at 150% on the US commercial growth. That is a wonderful setup.
你看这个,显然我跟你说过 96% 的增长很离谱。你得有参照才能明白这有多好。96%,但看看这个,公司营收环比增长 20%。整个布局最疯狂的地方在于,这家公司仅仅三年前一整年的营收,现在还不到它上个季度做到的。
Palunteer 第三季度的营收比 2023 年全年营收还多。你得明白这有多离谱,这发生得有多快。
If you take a look at this, okay, obviously I told you 96% growth is insane. You have to have context how insanely good this is. 96% but look at this 20% quarterly growth in company revenues.
The crazy part about this whole setup that the entire annual revenue just three years ago of this entire company is now less than what they did in this past quarter. Q3 revenues of Palunteer are bigger than the entire 2023 revenues.
You have to understand how insane that is, how quickly this happens.
与此同时,市销率从 365 降到了 56。没人说 56 倍市销率便宜,当然不是。这是顶级估值。但看看估值的下降幅度。以前人们说这很贵,现在他们还说这很贵。但与此同时,数字简直离谱。
股市里没有这样的东西。我从没见过这么快、这么猛的情况。
At the same time, the price to sales went down from 365 to 56. Now, nobody saying that 56 times sales is cheap. Of course not. It's elite pricing. But look at the drop off in the pricing.
People were saying this is expensive. Now they're saying this is expensive. But at the same time, the numbers are absolutely insane. There is nothing like this in the stock market.
I've never seen this happening so quick and so hard.
现在,我还想给你看一件事。看看 Palanteer 从新交易中产生了多少业务,这太离谱了。仅上个季度就有 212 笔至少 100 万美元的新交易。其中 107 笔超过 500 万美元,64 笔超过 1000 万美元。
2023 年,这家公司的营业收入是 1.2 亿。过去 12 个月,滚动 12 个月是 33 亿。三年时间,我们从 1.2 亿营业收入做到了 33 亿。这可不是闹着玩的。
Now, I want to show you one more thing. If you take a look at how much activity Palanteer generates from new deals, this is insane. 212 new deals of at least a million just in the past quarter. 107 were above 5 million and 64 of them were above 10 million.
In 2023, this company had 120 million of operating income. In the past 12 months, trailing 12 months is 3.3 billion. In 3 years, we went from 120 operating income to 3.3 billion. This is no laughing matter.
人们谈论估值上升之类的,但有时候产品就是好到足以支撑这样的估值。正如你看到的,也正如我马上要展示给你的,定价和估值一直在收缩、一直在变小,因为营收增长跑赢了估值。
People talk about increased valuations and so forth and so forth, but sometimes the product is just so good that it justifies that. And as you saw and as I'm going to show you just in a second, the pricing and the valuations keep contracting, keep getting smaller because the revenues are outpacing that valuation.
我们把 Palanteer 放进评分卡里跑了一遍,得到 100 分里的 98 分。这是我们平台上最高的分数。这不是程序设定的,也不是被操纵的,事实就是这样。不管你怎么拆解分析,这都是目前股市里最好的公司。
它丢掉的仅有的两分,是因为机构持股还差 2%,而这个差距实际上正在非常快地缩小。
We ran Palanteer through the scorecard. We got 98 out of 100. The number one score on our platform. It's not programmed. It's not rigged. It's just the way it is. No matter how you slice and dice it.
This is the best company in the stock market right now. The only two points they've lost is because they don't have enough institutional holding by 2% which is actually closing super fast.
现在,我给你看这个。这是营业收入。很直接。好,我们过一遍。营业收入现在是 10.8 亿。就在一年前,它低得多。低多少?是 3.93 亿。现在它增长了 175%。正如你在这里看到的,环比增长了 19%。
所以营业收入同比增长 175%。很好。与此同时,公司的市值怎么样?公司市值上涨了 4.4%。所以基本上 12 个月里没怎么变。所以,市值没变或只涨了 4.4%,而营业收入增长了 175%。
看营收也是同样的故事。营收增长了 96%,一路涨到 23 亿。很好。与此同时,市值只增长 4.4%。太好了。所以公司营收增长近 100%,利润率提升 175%,而市值只增长了 4.4%。这说不通。
Right now, I'm showing you this. This is operating income. Pretty straightforward. Okay, let's go over this. Operating income is now 1.08 billion. Just a year ago, it was a lot lower.
How much lower? It was 393 million. Now, it has increased by 175%. As you can see right here, quarter over quarter, it increased by 19%. So, operating income growing 175% year-over-year.
Great. At the same time, what's going on with the market cap of the company? Well, the market cap of the company is up 4.4%. So, basically unchanged in 12 months. So, while the market cap is unchanged or up 4.4%.
The operating income grew by 175%. The same story can be told if you look at revenues. Revenues are up 96%. going all the way up to 2.3 billion. Great. At the same time, 4.4% growth in market cap.
Wonderful. So, the company is growing revenues by almost 100%. Is increasing the margin by 175%. And the market cap only increased by 4.4%. It doesn't add up.
现在,我们知道 Palanteer 在债务和现金管理方面一直很出色,但这简直离谱,因为它不知怎么还在变得更好。Palanteer 目前总债务是 2.25 亿。过去一年债务下降了 4%。
现金现在有 25 亿,增长了 64%。所以现金在增加,债务在减少,我们的现金是债务的五倍。人们说这家公司不值这个估值。想象一下,一家公司拥有完美的资产负债表结构,现金这么多,没有债务,盈利能力高得离谱,营收和利润都在增长,可股价却纹丝不动,甚至实际上还跌了一点。我不知道该跟你说什么了。
Now, we know Palanteer has always been excellent with managing debt in cash, but this is absolutely insane because it is somehow getting better. Palanteer right now has total debt of 225 million.
Debt over the past year is now down 4%. Cash, which is now 2.5 billion, is up 64%. So while cash is increasing, debt is decreasing and we have five times more cash to debt. People are saying this company is not worth the valuation.
Imagine a company that has the perfect balance sheet setup, so much cash, no debt, profitability up the wazoo, and it's growing revenues and profits and somehow the stock price is unchanged or even actually dropping a little bit. I don't know what to tell you.
现在如果你看 4p,也就是分析这类公司的方法,那么公司的 4p 现在是 51.6,好吧,51.6,也许不是最便宜的,也许不是最贵的,相当合理,但看看过去一年发生了什么,它下降了 31%。
Palunteer 一年前的远期市盈率,当时作为一家企业明显比现在差得多,这是一个客观陈述,那时要贵 31%。所以这个产品的估值便宜了 31.3%,而业绩却大幅变好了。市销率也是同样的情况,它很贵,毫无疑问。
Palunteer 现在的市销率是 56 倍,贵得离谱。但是,它比一年前下降了 46.7%,而一年前它要贵得多。
Now if you look at 4p which is the way to analyze companies like this well the 4p of the companies now 51.6 okay 51.6 maybe not cheapest maybe not the most expensive pretty reasonable but look what happened over the past year it went down by 31%.
The Ford PE of Palunteer one year ago when it was significantly worse as a business than it is right now and that's an objective statement was 31% more expensive. So, this product has gotten cheaper by 31.3%.
While the results have gotten dramatically better, the same can be said about price to sales, which is expensive, no doubt. Palunteer is rating now 56 times sales, which is insanely expensive.
But hey, it's down 46.7% from just a year ago when it was a lot more expensive.
我想告诉大家的是,关于估值这一整套概念,你必须结合对企业实际经营状况的理解来看。如果营收和盈利能力正在疯狂增长,增长速度快得前所未见,像脱缰的野马一样,那么最终会发生的是,这些估值倍数会被压缩,开始往下走——前提是营收和盈利能力在疯狂增长,而Palunteer的情况正是如此。
这就是为什么你会看到估值倍数在收缩,而与此同时业务却在变得更好。
The thing I'm trying to tell you here guys is that the whole idea of valuations, you have to take it with a little bit understanding of what's going on with the business. If the revenues and the profitability are growing like crazy, like nothing we've ever seen before, like a bat out of hell, eventually what's going to happen is that these multiples will compress and they will start coming down if the revenues and the profitability is growing like crazy, which it is in Palunteer's case.
That's why you're seeing this multiple contraction. at the same time when the business is getting better.
Peter Lynch说得最到位:买入一家卓越的公司,任何时候都不算坏时机,而Palanteer就是最好的例子。
Peter Lynch has said it the best. There is no bad time to buy a terrific company and Palanteer is the prime example of that.
这家公司为什么下跌?现在所有人都执着于一个问题:这只股票今天为什么跌了3%?也许现在它涨了3%,也许现在它涨了30%,也许它又跌了10%。我不知道。无论你是在什么时候看到这个视频,无论你在这个视频里看到什么,我都不在乎短期股价。
我在乎的是理解并向你解释清楚这只股票为什么下跌,以及这件事的重要性。真正的下跌原因其实是这四点的组合。有些人只是获利了结。Palunteer过去5年涨了600%,人们获利了结很正常,这没问题。
很多人担心估值可能太高了,这同样没问题。还有很多人会想,Palunteer到底还能以这样的增速维持多久?我们多少假设增长已经见顶了。我不知道,在投资中,假设会害死人,在调查中也是。
向Richard致敬。但我的意思是,你为什么要假设呢?当你假设的时候,你就是在让你和我变成蠢货。那只是一个假设:增长已经见顶。是什么让你觉得增长已经见顶?这家公司到底哪里在放缓?
不过那是另一个视频的话题了。还有很多人基本上是误解了当前整体市场正处于低谷。市场现在的情绪糟透了。所有东西都在被抛售,至少在科技、AI和成长板块是这样。并不是每个板块都在被抛售,显然大多数板块还好,但科技、AI和成长板块正遭受重创。
所以,这是市场情绪。但请注意这四点的一个共同点:它们没有一个与业务有关。就Palunteer而言,它们没有一个与业务相关。市场情绪、假设、担忧、获利了结,这些没有一样与Palunteer的业务和运营有任何关系,也与这轮抛售无关。
Why is the company down? Everybody's now obsessed about this idea of why the stock is down 3% on the day. Maybe now it's up 3%. Maybe now it's up 30%. Maybe it's down 10% again.
I don't know. Wherever this video comes out, whatever you see in this video, I don't care what the stock price in the short term. What I care about is kind of understanding and translating to you the importance of why the stock has dropped.
Now the real reasons are actually a combination of these four. Some people they just took profits. I mean Palunteer is up 600% over the past 5 years. It's normal for people to take profits.
That's fine. A lot of people are concerned that the valuation may be too high. Again that's fine. A lot of people are kind of thinking well you know how long can Palanteer really stay at this growth rate.
We kind of assume that growth has peaked. I don't know in investing assumptions kill also in investigation. Shout out to Richard. But I mean why would you assume when you assume you make an asset of you and me?
That's an assumption. The growth has peaked. What gave you the indication that growth has peaked? What's slowing down about this company? But that's a point for a different video.
A lot of people are basically misunderstanding that the overall market right now is in the toilet. The market is in poop mood right now. Everything is selling off at least in tech and AI and growth.
Not every single sector is selling off. Obviously, most sectors are fine, but tech and AI and growth is getting hammered. So, it's market sentiment. But notice the one thing that's in common to all these four.
None of them have anything to do with the business. None of them is business related as it pertains to Palunteer. Market sentiment, assumptions, concerns, profit taking. None of them have to do nothing in Palunteer's business and operations has anything to do with the selloff.
当这种情况发生时,对我来说就是一个明显的买入机会。当我看到一家公司被抛售,而抛售与公司本身无关,同时业绩还在变好,那就是买入。这是一个非常二元的判断。
When that happens, it's an obvious buy for me. When I see a company that's selling off when it's not company related and the result is also getting better, that's a buy. It's a very binary assumption.
2021年,Palanteer见顶。它从10美元涨到40美元,所有人都超级兴奋,然后它暴跌了。它一路跌到7美元,并在那里待了整整一年。整个2022年,它基本上就是7美元。与此同时,业务在持续不断地改善、改善、再改善,而股价却从40美元一路跌到7美元,然后就停在那里。
当年我多次告诉过你们:每当业务在改善而股价在下跌时,这就是完美的布局。我们就是这样从每股7美元走到200美元的。如果你理解这个原理,这非常简单。
In 2021, Palanteer peaked. It went from $10 to $40. Everybody got super excited and then it tanked. It went all the way down to $7 and stayed there for a whole year. The whole 2022, it was $7 pretty much.
At the same time, the business kept improving and improving and improving as the price kept dropping and dropping from 40 all the way down to seven. And then it stayed there. And I told you multiple times back in those days.
I told you whenever the business is improving but the price is dropping, this is the perfect setup. And this is how we went from $7 to $200 per share. Very easy if you understand this principle.
调整后营业利润率60%,自由现金流利润率56%,而且它最大的20家客户现在的支出比去年多了76%。你们能理解在自己最大的20家客户身上一年做出76%的增长是什么概念吗?净收入留存率165%,这几乎是闻所未闻的。
很少有公司真正处在这个水平,尤其是在这样的增速下。
60% adjusted operating margins, 56% free cash flow margin, and its 20 biggest customers are now spending 76% more than they spent last year. Do you guys understand what it is to build 76% more in a year on your biggest 20 clients?
165 net dollar retention, which is almost unheard of. Very few companies are actually in this realm, especially with this growth rate.
这向你说明了什么,顿悟的时刻应该就在这里。既然我们的净收入留存率这么高,客户支出增加这么多,利润率还在提升,那我们就拥有护城河,因为没有人来抢他们的午餐。如果别人能做到,他们早就动手了。
这是一门非常赚钱的生意。我们拥有巨大的转换成本,因为没有人离开。而且因为这个165的数字,我们拥有网络效应。网络效应、生态系统、转换成本和完美的护城河,基本上意味着这是一座堡垒。
没有人能来抢这些人的午餐。没有别的解释。换句话说,TINA,也就是“别无选择”,是因为作为Palunteer的客户,你能得到别人给不了的东西。你面对的是世界上一些最大的公司。你能掌控自己的信息,没有人拥有你的信息,信息掌握在你自己手里。
你可以根据自己的信息定制任何你想要的AI模型,甚至多个模型。你知道这套系统会确保你合规,在安全方面一切都是一流的,而且你可以减少对外部大语言模型的依赖,基本上减少对那些向你疯狂收费的实验室的依赖,你的运营成本在下降,同时还能得到更好的结果。
所以Palunteer这套方案是历史上第一次,大型企业能够以成本高效的方式大规模部署AI并取得成果。以前从来没有人做到过。他们给你展示过炫酷的技巧,展示过炫酷的成果,但从来没有人谈过成本。
现在,世界上每一位CEO都在担心如何降低AI成本,因为成本高得离谱。Palunteer做到了这一点,而且合规、安全,你还能掌控这一切。这就是为什么他们被超额认购,这就是为什么所有人都想和他们合作,这就是为什么他们现在是股市里最好的布局。
What this shows you and it should kind of the light bulb moment should be here. Well, if we have net door retention so high and people are spending so much more and the margins are increasing, we have emote because nobody is coming for their lunch.
If they could, they would have a long time ago. It's a very lucrative business. We have massive switches costs because nobody's leaving. And we have network effects because of this number 165.
Network effects, ecosystem, switching cost and the perfect mode basically means this is a fortress. Nobody can come for these guys lunch. There is nothing else. The Tina in other words there is no alternative is because as a Palunteer customer you get something that nobody else can give you.
You're dealing with some of the biggest companies in the world. You get to control your info. Nobody has your information. you hold your information. You get to custom tailor whatever AI model you want to use, even multiple models to your information.
You know that this system going to make sure that you're compliant and that safety wise everything is tiptop and you can reduce your dependence on external LLMs and basically reduce your dependence on these labs that are billing you crazy and your operating costs are coming down and you're getting better results.
So this palunteer setup is the first time in history that large corporations can deploy AI at scale with cost efficiency and results. Nobody has ever done this before. They've shown you cool tricks and they've shown you cool results, but nobody has ever talked about the cost.
Right now, every single CEO in the world is concerned about how we bring down AI costs because the costs are insane. Palunteer does that and they're compliant and they're safe and you get to control everything about this.
That's why they're oversubscribed. That's why everybody wants to work with them. That's why they are right now the best setup in the stock market.
当很多人跟你解释AI正在变便宜、大语言模型在降价、一切都在商品化,并且不知怎么地把它说成对Palunteer的利空时,我会笑,因为这恰恰就是杰文斯悖论。去查一下蒸汽机。当这个产品变得如此便宜,采用率就会飙升。
而当采用率飙升时,也许你每单位赚的钱少了,但你卖出的单位多得多,从而扩大了总可寻址市场。天哪,这正是我们现在的情况。AI的使用成本在下降。我们现在大概处在这个位置。大约两三年后,我们会走到这里。
当成本下降时会发生什么?采用率会大幅上升,使用量会增加,总可寻址市场也会扩大。显然,所有人都会赚到钱,但大语言模型和那些实验室的重要性会下降,而硬件——CPU、GPU、内存——的重要性,以及软件、也就是这整套东西的操作系统的重要性,会上升,而 pity 会赚到比今天多得多的钱。
When you have a lot of people explaining to you about AI becoming cheap and large language models dropping prices and everything is becoming commoditized and somehow they make it to be a negative for palunteer.
I laugh because this is literally the Jevans paradox. Look it up steam engine. When this product becomes so cheap the adoption rate goes through the roof. And when the adoption rate goes through the roof, maybe you're making less money per unit, but you're selling way more units, increasing the total addressable market.
Damn, this is literally what we have right now. The cost of usage of AI are coming down. We're probably right about here right now. In about two or three years, we're going to be right here.
What's going to happen when the cost drop? The adoption rate is going to increase dramatically. Usage is going to go up and the total addressable market is going to go up. Now obviously everybody's going to make money but the importance of large language models in the labs is going to come down and the importance of hardware CPUs GPUs memories and the importance of software visav the operating system of this whole thing is going to increase and pity is going to make a lot more money than it is making today.
2023年我在Twitter上发过这个。我记得当时它还叫Twitter,我不确定,也许那时已经叫X了。谁在乎呢?2023年我发了这个,说Palanteer是真正靠谱的公司,当时股价是18.89美元,89,1889,2023年,我跟你们说,嘿,大家都担心这只股票涨得太快了,因为那时候它一年已经涨了155%,所有人都像,天哪,天哪,天哪,等等,是6个月涨了155%,这估值太贵了,等等等等,好吧,行,现在确实贵。
3年后的今天,这只股票的价格已经涨了10倍,现在所有人都在说,这太贵了,这200太贵了。你觉得到2029年会怎样?如果营收和盈利能力以我们迄今看到的同样速度增长,或者至少是差不多的水平。
我来告诉你会发生什么。会发生的是,股价会这样走。这是我新的2030年目标价:978美元。数据非常清楚。即使他们的营收增速一路降到80%。好,95、90、85、80,增速会开始下降,而我认为不会。
In 2023 I posted this on Twitter. I think back then it was called Twitter. I'm not sure. Maybe it was already X. Who cares? 2023 I posted this and said Palanteer is the real deal and the share price was $18.89 89 1889 2023 and I told you hey everybody's concerned that the stock is running up too quickly because at that point it was already up 155% a year and everybody like oh my god oh my god oh my god oh wait it was 155 in 6 months this is expensive valuations blah blah blah blah blah blah okay cool this is expensive now 3 years later the price on this share has 10xed now everybody's saying well this is expensive this 200 is expensive what do you think is going to happen by 2029 if the revenues and the profit ability will increase at the same rate we've seen increasing so far or at least in the same neighborhood.
Going to tell you what's going to happen. What's going to happen is the share price is going to do this. This is my new price target for 2030 $978. The data is very clear. Even if they decline in the rate of revenue growth all the way to 80%.
Okay, 95 90 85 80 it's going to start declining which I
2023年我发了这个,说Palanteer是真正靠谱的公司,当时股价是18.89美元,89,1889,2023年,我跟你们说,嘿,大家都担心这只股票涨得太快了,因为那时候它一年已经涨了155%,所有人都像,天哪,天哪,天哪,等等,是6个月涨了155%,这估值太贵了,等等等等,好吧,行,现在确实贵。
3年后的今天,这只股票的价格已经涨了10倍,现在所有人都在说,这太贵了,这200太贵了。你觉得到2029年会怎样?如果营收和盈利能力以我们迄今看到的同样速度增长,或者至少是差不多的水平。
2023 I posted this and said Palanteer is the real deal and the share price was $18.89 89 1889 2023 and I told you hey everybody's concerned that the stock is running up too quickly because at that point it was already up 155% a year and everybody like oh my god oh my god oh my god oh wait it was 155 in 6 months this is expensive valuations blah blah blah blah blah okay cool this is expensive now 3 years later the price on this share has 10xed now everybody's saying well this is expensive this 200 is expensive what do you think is going to happen by 2029 if the revenues and the profit ability will increase at the same rate we've seen increasing so far or at least in the same neighborhood.
我来告诉你会发生什么。会发生的是,股价会这样走。这是我新的2030年目标价:978美元。数据非常清楚。即使他们的营收增速一路降到80%。好,95、90、85、80,增速会开始下降,而我认为不会。
而且即使我们假设市盈率只有55,远低于这只股票当前的市盈率,即使我们假设你在这里看到的这些数据,46%的净利润率,而我认为他们会更高,我们说的也是每股978美元,较当前水平有431%的上涨空间。在我看来,这算是一个偏保守的看涨情形。
Going to tell you what's going to happen. What's going to happen is the share price is going to do this. This is my new price target for 2030 $978. The data is very clear. Even if they decline in the rate of revenue growth all the way to 80%.
Okay, 95 90 85 80 it's going to start declining which I don't think it will. And even if we assume that the PE is going to be only 55, which is a lot lower than the current P of the stock, and even if we assume all these data you're seeing right here, 46% net margin, which I think they'll have higher, we're talking about $978 per share, which is a $431% upside from this point.
And that's in my mind somewhat conservative bullish case.
我计划未来四年靠这只股票每年至少赚49%。这就是为什么现在我对Palunteer的兴奋程度和2022年股价7美元那会儿一样,因为这是创造世代财富的完美布局,而大多数投资者会执着于估值担忧,以及他们认为增长已经见顶这件事。
I plan to make at least 49% per year for the next four years off of this stock. And that is why right now I'm just as excited about Palunteer as I was back in the $7 2022 days because this is the perfect setup to create generational wealth while most investors are going to be obsessed about valuation concerns and the fact that they think that the growth peaked.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Tom Nash 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。