$PLTR · Financial Education · 2026-11-02
Palantir 的业务是 A++,营收增长 96%,但说话者看空该股:预计未来两到三年增长将放缓,下个季度将从 96% 降至接近 80% 高位;营收成本上升 85%,看起来已失控;远期市盈率接近 100 倍(两年后为 70 倍),一旦增长放缓,估值将成为主要问题。此前从 49% 降至 12% 的增长表明放缓未必持续,但他将当前的放缓视为主要问题。
逐段跳播
Palantir 下跌了3%。
Palantir fell 3%.
第二,Palantir。我们来聊聊 Palantir。我现在应该买入还是卖出这只股票?
Number two, Palantir. We will talk about Palantir. Should I buy or sell this stock now , okay?
现在,我们来谈谈你应该买入还是卖出 Palantir 股票。然后我们会讨论我接下来该买哪只 Palantir,再然后我们会聊一只非常值得买入的秘密股票。
Now, let's talk about whether you should buy or sell Palantir stock. Then we'll discuss which Palantir I should buy next and then we'll talk about a great secret stock to buy, okay?
Palantir,我的天,看看这个。这绝对是 A++ 级别。女士们先生们,这太完美了。没有比这更好的了。营收同比增长了96%。营收成本大幅上升了85%,我认为这一项里包含了股权激励(SBC),所以这一点要记住。
不过,虽然85%这个数字相当惊人,但相比营收仍然偏低,所以这是好事。
Palantir, oh my god, look at that. That's absolutely A++ grade. This is perfect, ladies and gentlemen. Nothing could be better than this. Revenue growth increased by 96% year-on-year.
The cost of revenue has increased dramatically by 85%, I think that area includes stock-based compensation (SBC), so that's something to keep in mind. However, while that 85% number is quite impressive, it is low compared to the revenue, so it is good.
总利润增长了98%,达到19亿,而去年同期为9.73亿。Palantir 拓展其商业模式的方式,以及 Alex Karp 和他的团队所做的工作,堪称传奇。
Total profit increased by 98% to 1.9 billion, compared to 973 million in the same quarter last year. I mean, the way Palantir has expanded their business model and the work Alex Karp has done with his team is legendary.
销售和营销费用增长了44%,研发费用增长了52%,一般及行政费用增长了42%,总运营费用增长了46%;这些数字通常会是问题,因为数额巨大,对吧?如果 Palantir 没有把营收增长96%,这些就会成为问题。这太不可思议了。
Sales and marketing increased by 44%, research and development by 52%, general and administrative expenses by 42%, and total operating expenses by 46%; These would usually be a problem because the numbers are huge, right?
These would have been problems if Palantir hadn't increased their revenue by 96%. This is incredible.
毛利润增长了98%,这有多疯狂,对吧?运营利润增长了176%,利息收入增长了49%;本季度他们有大约2500万至2600万美元的其他费用,而去年同期是2700万美元的收益,所以这一点很重要,要记住。
然而,尽管如此,税前利润增长了139%,净利润增长了138%,摊薄每股收益增长了144%。朋友们,Palantir 的这些数字堪称传奇,真的非同寻常。
Okay, gross profit increased by 98%, how crazy is that, right? Operating income increased by 176%, interest income by 49%; They had other expenses of around $25-26 million this quarter, compared to a benefit of $27 million in the same quarter last year, so that's important to keep in mind.
Yet, despite this, earnings before income tax grew by 139%, net income by 138%, and EPS on a diluted basis by 144%. Friends, these numbers from Palantir are legendary, truly extraordinary.
看看资产负债表。看看现金及现金等价物,2025年初是14亿,现在是36亿。2025年底他们有14亿现金,现在他们有36亿现金及有价证券,从去年底的57亿增长到接近70亿,对吧?
总权益从去年底的75亿增长到现在的113亿。这真的不可思议,对吧?
Look at the balance sheet. Look at this cash and cash equivalents, which was 1.4 billion at the beginning of 2025, now it is 3.6 billion. At the end of 2025 they had 1.4 billion in cash, now they have 3.6 billion in cash and marketable securities, up from 5.7 billion at the end of last year, to almost $7 billion, right?
And total equity has increased from $7.5 billion at the end of last year to now stand at $11.3 billion. I mean, it's really incredible, right?
Palantir,这只股票我在2022年以略高于7美元的价格买入,对吧?这只股票的表现远超我的想象。我原本以为的 Palantir 的未来,实际远比那更多、更好。我从没想到 Palantir 的营收会增长超过90%。
而他们已经连续两个季度录得90%的营收增长。太不可思议了,兄弟。当你对 Palantir 如此乐观,却还是不够乐观,就像我一样,这太不可思议了。真的是一家了不起的公司。
Palantir, this stock I bought in 2022 at a little over seven dollars, right? This stock has done much more than I could have imagined. What I thought would be the future of Palantir, it has been much more and much better.
I never thought Palantir's revenue would grow by more than 90%. And they have recorded 90% revenue growth for two consecutive quarters. Incredible, brother. I mean, when you were so optimistic about Palantir and you weren't optimistic enough, like me, that's incredible. Truly a wonderful company.
话虽如此,我们来谈谈主要问题。股价在下跌。嗯。股价在往下走。所以,你看着这些会说:“那怎么会呢?”利润表是 A++ 评级,他们在几乎所有可能的方面都胜过所有人。资产负债表比以往任何时候都好。
它已被证明是一台巨大的赚钱机器,对吧?如果你想留在 SaaS 领域,他们被认为是这个领域里你唯一想投的公司,至少很多人是这么认为的,对吧?那么,股价为什么在跌?我来告诉你为什么在跌。
它下跌有三个不同的原因,对吧?听好了。这是头号问题。这是 Palantir 股票的主要问题,对吧?不是业务的问题,而是股票的问题。
Now, having said these words, let's talk about the main problem. The share price is falling. Hmm. The share price is going down. So, you look at that and say, "Well, how?" With an A++ grading income statement, they have outperformed everyone in almost every possible area.
The balance sheet is better than ever before. It has proven to be a huge money maker, right? And if you want to keep them in the SaaS space, they are considered the only company in this space where you would want to be, at least that's what many people think, right?
So, why are share prices falling? I'll tell you why it's decreasing. It's decreasing for three different reasons, right? Listen. This is the number one problem. This is the main problem with Palantir stock, right? Not with business, but with stocks.
听好了。Palantir 是一家增长非常快的公司。对于这类公司,人们喜欢它们,直到它们的增长开始放缓。一旦增速开始放缓,人们就会害怕。记住,刚入市的人,你们这些入市第一年或第二年的人,对吧?
增长放缓和收入下降不是一回事,对吧?增长可能是在放缓,“我公司的营收原本增长25%,第二年降到了15%。”这就是增长放缓。收入仍在增长,只是没有以前那么快。收入下降意味着,“我公司的营收去年增长25%,今年下降了10%,变成负增长。”
那才是衰退,对吧?记住这一点。增长放缓和下降是两回事。
Listen. Palantir is a very fast-growing company. In the case of these types of companies, people love them until their growth starts to slow down. Once the growth rate starts to slow down, people get scared.
Remember, those who are new to the market, those of you who are in the first year or two, right? Slowing growth and falling income are not the same thing, right? Growth could be slowing down, "My company's revenue was growing at 25% and the next year it dropped to 15%."
That is the decline in growth. Income is still growing, just not as fast as before. Declining revenue means, "My company's revenue was growing 25% last year, and this year it's down 10% and negative."
That would be the downfall, wouldn't it? Keep this in mind. Slowing growth and decline are different things.
那么,Palantir 接下来会发生什么,而且这很可能会持续未来两到三年,就是营收增长放缓。也就是说,收入仍会继续增长。未来2到3年收入会继续增长,但按百分比计算的增速会远低于以前。
所以,你看这里,他们在过去几个季度的营收增长是63%。然后,升到70%。直接提高了7个百分点。然后,跳到85%,提高了15个百分点,对吧?然后,达到93%,提高了8个百分点,但这时我们开始看到某种放缓,对吧?
整体增速仍在上升,但你能看到衰退的早期数学迹象正变得明显,对吧?而在最近一个季度,他们做到了96%。也就是说,仍有增长,但很慢。这只有3个百分点。他们对下一季度的预测是80%多的高位。
所以,下一季度将出现多年来的首次这种情况。比如,你得回溯到2023年。自2023年以来,Palantir 将首次经历营收增长放缓,对吧?所以,这是个问题。这是个大问题。当你是一家超高速增长的公司,经历这样的情况时,通常很多投资者就不想要你了,对吧?所以,这是一个重大问题。
So, what's going to happen to Palantir, and it's probably going to last for the next two to three years, is a slowdown in revenue growth. That is, income will still continue to increase.
Income will continue to grow in the next 2 to 3 years, but the growth rate in percentage terms will be much lower than before, okay? So, if you look here, they had 63% revenue growth in the last few quarters.
Then, they increased to 70%. There was a direct increase of seven percentage points. Then, they jumped to 85%, which is 15 percentage points higher, right? Then, they got to 93%, up eight percentage points, but that's where we started to see a kind of slowdown, right?
The overall growth rate is still on the rise, but you can see that the early mathematical signs of a recession are becoming apparent, right? And in the most recent quarter, they took it to 96%.
That is, there is still growth, but it is slow. This is only three percentage points. Their next quarter forecast is in the high eighties, okay? For the next quarter. So, this is going to happen for the first time in many years in the next quarter.
For example, you have to go back to 2023. For the first time since 2023, Palantir is going to experience a slowdown in revenue growth, right? And so, this is a problem. This is a big problem.
When you're a hypergrowth company and going through a situation like that, usually a lot of investors don't want you anymore, right? So, this is a major problem.
接下来,Palantir 还有两个小问题。这两个都很重要。当谈到超高速增长的公司时,这些不如第一个那么重要,仅此而已。那个增速在加快,对吧?这是个小问题,但仍然非常重要,下一个也是个小问题。
所以,看看。我经常发帖,每个财报季我都会做很多利润表分析。我把它们发在私人群里。所以,在私人群的 Discord 聊天里,你只要输入 Palantir,我就会调出过去 Palantir 利润表的评级,对吧?
看看这个。看看这个。所以,这是他们9个月前报告的季度。A++ 评级。Palantir 拿了很多 A++,对吧?那个季度营收支出增长了24%。记住那个数字,24%。现在,回到我6个月前评估的季度。
现在,它是25%。不算太异常,但略有上升。但你会说这没问题,因为营收从70%增长到了85%。所以,目前没有问题,对吧?现在看看3个月前发生了什么。我查了一下,哎呀,营收成本达到了54%。
现在,你可能会说这不是问题,因为54%的营收支出对应93%的增长,这不是问题。但是,看看我12个月前查的利润表,对吧?营收增长96%,而营收支出增长了85%。所以,女士们先生们,听好了,营收支出。
它失控了。现在,这并不意味着它会一直失控。他们明年可能会控制住,但眼下,它就是一路往上,从几个季度前的25%,然后50%多一点,现在85%。很多人在问,这会不会开始超过营收?这是一个你必须至少考虑一下的严肃问题,对吧?所以,这就是正在发生的情况。
Next, we have two small problems with Palantir, okay? Both of these are important. When you talk about hypergrowth companies, these are not as important as the first one, that's all.
That growth rate is accelerating, right? This is a small problem, but it is still very important, and the next one is also a small problem, okay? So, check it out. I always post, you know, I do a lot of income statement reviews every earnings season.
I post them in private groups. And so, in the private group Discord chat, you can just type Palantir and I'll pull up the grades from past Palantir income statements, right? And look at this.
Look at this, okay? So, this is for their reported quarter 9 months ago. A++ grade. Palantir got a lot of A++, right? Revenue expenditure increased by 24% in that quarter. Okay, remember that number, 24%.
Now, go back to the quarter I evaluated 6 months ago. Now, it stands at 25%. Not too unusual, but it's a bit of an increase. But you would say it's okay because revenue has increased from 70% to 85%.
So, there's no problem at the moment, right? Now look at what happened 3 months ago. I checked it and oh-oh, the cost of income has reached 54%. Okay. Now, you might say this is not a problem because 54% of income is spent against 93% of growth, that is not a problem.
But, look at the income and expenditure account I checked 12 months ago, okay? Revenue growth of 96%, while revenue expenditure increased by 85%. So, ladies and gentlemen, listen up, income expenditure.
It's out of control. Now, that doesn't mean it will always be out of control. They might get it under control next year, but right now, it's just going up, from 25% a few quarters ago, then a little over 50%, and now 85%.
Many are asking, will this start to outpace revenue? And that's a serious question that you have to at least consider, right? So, this is what is happening. And then problem number three, this is a small problem, but it's quite important, is this.
PE ratio. And we're looking at 1000 X stocks.com here. Look at that. This stock has a forward PE of around 100, right? You could say, if it goes down a little tomorrow and maybe the income is better, maybe it's okay, you know.
Two-year forward PE 70. So, the main thing is. Those are all right. For example, people are willing to pay any PE ratio if you have incredible growth and you continue to accelerate it.
Once you see growth slowing down, valuation becomes a big issue, right? So, next quarter, let's say their revenue growth is 89%, right? That's still a great number, but it's down from 96.
Let's say next quarter, remember they have to keep up with all these numbers and there again... I said, "I bought Palantir at $7. This is my next Palantir. When I bought Palantir at $7 in 2022, it was a stock that almost no one believed in.
If anyone did believe in this stock, they were afraid to talk about it. Only a few proud people like Amit would have spoken about it proudly and publicly, right? And clearly I discussed this stock extensively in '22 and '23.
I mean, I've been covering it for a long time, since 2022, of course, and I've been doing it regularly since then. Palantir has achieved growth rates that were beyond the expectations of many of us.
Our expectations were much lower than what they achieved.
暂无中文转述,仅英文原句可核对。
So if I show you an example like Palantir, which was very early in its growth cycle when it went public. The thing is, they went from 48% growth to 49% growth the next quarter.
It was way back in 2021. Then they went from 35%, 34%, 30%, 25%, 21%, 17%, 17%, and finally in 2023, their growth rate dropped to 12%. You would have assumed that Palantir's revenue would only grow 10%, 15% in the coming years, right?
And so if you want to know why the stock crashed from 30 or 40 to $6 or as low as $5.98, right? It's because they went from 49% growth to 12% growth in a few years, right? Now you would have assumed, "Okay, it's going to be like this forever."
"But you know what? It wasn't, was it? It was too early to assume in Palantir's growth cycle that it was over and that this was going to be their growth rate forever. So what happened in the next few years, the growth rate went from 12% to their recent peak, right?
96% revenue growth, right? The thing is, they went from 48% growth to 49% growth the next quarter. It It was way back in 2021. Then they went from 35%, 34%, 30%, 25%, 21%, 17%, 17%, and finally in 2023, their growth rate dropped to 12%.
You would have assumed that Palantir's revenue would only grow 10%, 15% in the coming years, right? And so if you want to know why the stock crashed from 30 or 40 to $6 or as low as $5.98 , right?
It's because they went from 49% growth to 12% growth in a few years , right? Now you would have assumed , "Okay, it's going to be like this forever." "But you know what? It wasn't, was it?
It was too early to assume in Palantir's growth cycle that it was over and that this was going to be their growth rate forever. So what happened in the next few years, the growth rate went from 12% to their recent peak, right? 96% revenue growth, right?
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