$PLTR · Daniel Pronk · 2026-11-04
Palantir 的基本面非常出色——商业营收现已超过政府营收，40 法则为 158%，净收入留存率为 165%——但合同价值仅增长 6%，预示未来增长将放缓；在 101 倍自由现金流下，一个需要 60% 年度自由现金流增长和 40 倍退出倍数的 DCF 仅得出 15% 的年回报；他不确定这些假设是乐观还是悲观，因此在当前高价下回避该股。
逐段跳播
今天我们来聊聊 Palantir。我的笔记存在另一台电脑上。这里我们看到，Palantir 的商业收入首次超过了政府收入。这对企业来说非常重要，因为它表明它们有能力拓展到商业领域，而不是只依赖美国政府业务或整体的政府业务。
所以在我看来，这对公司来说是一个非常重要的里程碑。
Today we will talk about Palantir. My notes are kept on another computer. Here we see that Palantir's commercial revenue has exceeded government revenue for the first time. This is very important for businesses because it demonstrates that they are able to expand into the commercial sector, rather than relying solely on US government business or overall government business.
So in my opinion this is a very important milestone for the company.
我们看到，美国收入同比增长 119%，环比增长 23%。美国商业收入同比增长 148%，环比增长 29%。美国政府收入同比增长 96%，环比增长 18%。他们还表示，季度收入首次达到 20 亿美元。
We see that US revenue grew 119% year-over-year and 23% quarter-over-quarter. US commercial revenue grew 148% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter. US government revenue increased by 96% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter.
They also said their quarterly revenue reached $2 billion for the first time.
然而，总合同价值同比仅增长 6%。这正是财报发布后股价最初遭到抛售、并在过去一个月下跌近 19% 的原因。市场对此反应不佳，因为如果总合同价值没有随收入同步增长，就说明未来的增速可能会大幅下降。
However, the total contract value increased by only 6% year-on-year. And that's exactly why the stock initially sold off after the earnings report and has fallen nearly 19% in the past month.
The market did not take this well, because if the total contract value does not increase in line with revenue, it indicates that future growth rates could decline significantly.
但往后看，我们可以看到 Palantir 的 Rule of 40 得分现在是 158%，这真是令人难以置信。一般来说，Rule of 40 中 40% 的得分就算不错了。这就是 Rule of 40 的含义。
所以 158% 这个数字在这里几乎难以想象。这好得离谱。
But moving forward, we can see that Palantir's Rule of 40 score is now 158%, which is truly incredible. Generally, a score of 40% in the Rule of 40 is considered good. This is what the Rule of 40 means.
So the number 158% is almost unimaginable here. This is ridiculously good.
接着我们看到，经营现金流为 12.05 亿美元，利润率为 52%，公司资产负债表上现在有 104 亿美元现金，几乎没有债务。所以总体来看，Palantir 的这些业绩非常出色。这是公司又一个惊人的季度。
We then see that cash from operations came in at $1.205 billion, with a margin of 52%, and the company now has $10.4 billion in cash on its balance sheet, with virtually no debt.
So overall, these results from Palantir were remarkable. It was another amazing quarter for the company.
接下来，下一张截图是他们对第四季度的预测，预计收入为 26.5 亿美元，比去年增长 88%。他们还预计全年收入为 85.3 亿美元，自由现金流为 49 亿美元。这意味着 Palantir 预计今年将实现 58% 的自由现金流利润率，同时业务增速接近 100%。
本质上，Palantir 计划今年将业务规模翻倍，同时保持约 60% 的自由现金流利润率。
Moving on, the next screenshot is their forecast for the fourth quarter, where they expect revenue to be $2.65 billion, an 88% increase over last year. They also expect revenue of $8.53 billion and free cash flow of $4.9 billion for the full year.
This means Palantir expects to achieve a 58% free cash flow margin this year while growing the business at a rate of nearly 100%. Essentially, Palantir plans to double its business this year while maintaining a free cash flow margin of around 60%.
然而，Palantir 的第四季度盈利预测表明，收入增长开始放缓，这是自然的结果。没有公司能永远保持 100% 的增速。所以到了某个时候，Palantir 的业务会开始放缓，而那会是相当好的事。
However, Palantir's fourth-quarter earnings forecast indicates that revenue growth is starting to slow, which is a natural consequence. No company can grow at a 100% growth rate forever.
So at some point, Palantir's business will start to slow down, and that will be quite good.
事实上，分析师已经预计收入增速将在未来 18 个月内大幅放缓，到 2028 年底降至约 30% 的年增速。这仍然非常好，30% 的增长对任何企业来说当然都很棒，但你可以看到，分析师担心增速会继续下降并再次大幅下滑。
In fact, analysts are already expecting the revenue growth rate to slow sharply over the next 18 months and fall to around 30% annual growth by the end of 2028. This is still very good and 30% growth is certainly great for any business, but you can see that analysts are concerned that the growth rate will continue to decline and fall sharply again.
现在我们快速看一下 Palantir 的现金流量表，它显示自年初以来经营现金流几乎增长了两倍，达到 33 亿美元。有意思的是，公司只增加了 900 万美元的资本支出。也就是说，他们增加了 900 万美元的资本支出，但经营现金流增加了 21 亿美元。这真是不可思议。
Now let's quickly look at Palantir's cash flow statement, which shows that operating cash flow has nearly tripled to $3.3 billion since the beginning of the year. Now what's interesting about this is that the company only increased their capital expenditure by $9 million.
That is, they increased capital expenditures by $9 million, but operating cash flow increased by $2.1 billion. This is incredible.
你还可以看到，应收账款增长强劲，这本质上是在创造未来的现金流，看到这一点很棒，尤其是对一家软件公司来说。这是一份令人难以置信的现金流量表。无法用其他方式来形容它。它非常透明，Palantir 正在产生大量的现金流。
You can also see that accounts receivable is growing strongly, which is essentially creating future cash flow and that's great to see, especially for a software company. This is an incredible cash flow statement.
It is impossible to describe it in any other way. It is very transparent and Palantir is generating significant amounts of cash flow.
Palantir 的财报演示还显示，其净收入留存率为165%。这非常好。这意味着现有客户多年来在 Palantir 上的支出大幅增加，而客户只有在获得良好回报或投资回报率、并在使用 Palantir 时取得出色成果的情况下才会这样做，这表明 Palantir 的产品极具价值，客户希望更多地使用它们。
Palantir's earnings presentation also reported that their net revenue retention was 165%. This is very good. This means that existing customers are spending a lot more on Palantir over the years, and customers will only do so if they get a good return or ROI and achieve great results with Palantir, which indicates that Palantir's products are highly valuable and customers want to use them more.
我认为 Palantir 唯一的问题在于，它目前的交易价格是自由现金流的101倍，这对任何企业来说都是非常高的倍数。本质上，这意味着 Palantir 必须继续保持非常快速的增长，才能支撑这一倍数。
The only problem I see with Palantir is that it is currently trading at 101 times free cash flow, which is a very high multiple for any business. Essentially, this means that Palantir will have to continue to grow at a very rapid pace to justify this multiple.
我对这只股票做了一个简短的 DCF 分析来说服你。所以，如果 Palantir 能以每年60%的速度增长自由现金流，并以自由现金流的40倍进行交易，那么从今天的股价算起，它将产生15%的复合年增长率。
随着增长放缓，这一倍数将会缩小，而对任何企业来说，维持60%的自由现金流增长都是一件大事。就我个人而言，我没有足够的信心去判断这些数字是乐观还是悲观。这就是我远离这只股票的原因，尤其是当它以如此高的价格出售时。
And I have run a brief DCF analysis on the stock to convince you. So, if Palantir can grow their free cash flow at a rate of 60% per year and trades at 40 times free cash flow, it would generate 15% compounded annual growth from today's share price.
This multiple will shrink as growth slows, and maintaining 60% free cash flow growth is a big deal for any business. And personally, I'm not confident enough to understand whether these numbers are optimistic or pessimistic.
And that's why I stay away from this stock, especially when it's being sold at such a high price.
但无论如何，这家企业表现得极其出色，这些数字非常惊人。所以，恭喜所有从这只股票上赚了很多钱的投资者。
But anyway, the business is doing incredibly well and these numbers were phenomenal. So, congratulations to all the investors who made a lot of money from this stock.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。