$PLTR · Invest with Henry · 2026-11-05
在175美元价位，说话者看好PLTR，但认为它并未被低估；股价跌破布林带时显得异常便宜，因此他愿意卖出delta更高的看跌期权。他怀疑在没有消息面或基本面支撑的情况下股价能升破200美元，理由是存在阻力位且未能守住186美元；基于165美元支撑位至202美元高点，他认为合理价值约为108美元。
逐段跳播
我还会用一支 Palantir 箭头。
I will also use a Palantir arrow.
我会给你看“Balantir”，因为它也是一个很好的例子。你可以看到 Palantir 正处于大幅上涨的走势中。但我不喜欢这只股票的地方，首先是从基本面角度来看，在考虑价格走势之前，就是它被高估了。
I will show you "Balantir" because it is also a great example. You can see that Palantir is on a massive upward trajectory . But what I didn't like about this stock, first and foremost from a fundamental perspective before considering the price movement, is that it was overvalued.
我很喜欢“Balantir”。我从 Palantir 首次公开募股以来就一直是它的长期投资者。但我告诉我的社群，每股200美元以上的价格似乎并不合理。我在那里看到了很大的阻力。
首先，这只股票以前从未达到过那个水平，那是一个全新的区域，而且我没有看到有任何消息或基本面真正支持这只股票在如此高的盈利比率下创下52周新高。
I love "Balantir". I have been an investor in Palantir for a long time since its initial public offering. But I told my community that a price above $200 per share did not seem logical.
I saw a lot of resistance there, okay? Firstly, the stock has never reached that level before, it is a completely new area, and I have not seen the kind of news or fundamentals that actually support the stock reaching a 52-week high with such a high profitability ratio .
阻力位就是卖方不断出现的价格，股价无法涨到该价位之上，也无法长时间维持在该价位，就像我们在“Balantir”上看到的那样。它根本无法在每股200美元上方维持很长时间。
The resistance level is the price at which sellers keep appearing, where the stock cannot rise above it or maintain that price for a long time, just as we see with " Balantir".
It cannot stay above $200 per share for very long at all.
所以，去找价格发生反转的位置，看它是否反弹回升后又遇到抛售压力，那就是你的阻力位。我会在“Balantir”的图表上具体标出来。基本上，这个区域附近的任何位置都代表阻力位。但同时，你可以在这里看到一个非常短期的双顶形态，因为这只股票也无法将价格维持在每股186美元。
从9月以来的长期来看，时间并不远，这只股票已经暴跌至每股180美元以下。
So , look for the place where the price reversed, whether it bounced back up and then saw selling pressure; that is your resistance level. I will specify that here on the "Balantir" chart.
Basically, anything around this circuit here represents the resistance level. But at the same time, you can see here a very short-term double top pattern, as the stock was unable to maintain its price at $186 per share either.
In the long term since September, which is not far away, the stock has plummeted to below $180 per share.
我认为，根据这张图表、价格走势和股票轨迹，如果你看这里的重心，平均价格在哪里？这基本上就是我用移动平均线做的事。正如我所说，大多数指标都是基于价格走势的。所以，如果你看移动平均线，在我看来，这只股票应该在165美元的支撑位和远低于202美元峰值的区间之间交易。
如果你取这两个水平之间的平均值，我会说大约在每股108美元的区间。
I think the fair value, based on this chart, price movement, and stock trajectory, if you look at the center of gravity here, where does the average price lie? Well, that's basically what I do with the moving average.
As I said, most indicators are based on price movement . So, if you look at the moving average, it seems to me that this stock should be trading between the support level at $165, and well below that peak at $202 per share.
If you take the average between these two levels, I would be somewhere in the $108 per share range.
现在 Palantir 已经达到每股175美元，我有点喜欢这只股票，但正如你从价格走势中看到的，它并没有被低估。
Now that Palantir has reached $175 per share, I kind of like the stock, but it's not undervalued as you can see based on the price action.
目前，我们可以在图表上看到 Palantir 股票位于这个灰色区域下方。它位于布林带下方，这意味着 Palantir 股票便宜到这个程度是不寻常的。
Currently, we can see the Palantir stock on the chart below this gray area. It is below the Bollinger Band , which means it is unusual for Palantir stock to be this cheap.
这就是为什么你可以看到这里布林带变宽，以及过去 Palantir 股票大幅上涨时这里也出现了明显的变宽。
This is why you can see a widening of the Bollinger Band here, and a significant widening here in the past when Palantir's stock was rising a lot.
如果我现在卖出 Palantir 的看跌期权，它位于布林带下方，这意味着我非常放心卖出看跌期权。这实际上也让我更放心去追求更高的“Delta”。
if I were to sell a put option on Palantir right now, it's below its Bollinger Band, which means I'm very comfortable selling a put option. This actually makes me more comfortable going towards a higher "Delta" as well.
这个频道对 $PLTR 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。