$PM · Dividendology · 2026-10-27
PM 估值偏贵：过去一年上涨 32%、年初至今上涨近 26%，涨幅超过标普 500 的两倍，估值较其五年均值溢价约 30%。其 3% 的股息率远低于历史上 5% 以上的水平；按其过去 4% 的股息增速，股息贴现模型给出的估值接近 130 美元，较当前股价低约 35%；市场当前计入的是 5%-5.5% 的股息增速，快于过去，而 11%、8% 和 9% 的盈利预期大致可以支撑这一增速。
逐段跳播
现在，我们来看一只不仅最近将股息提高了近9%、达到8.8%，而且过去一年表现异常出色的股票。这只股票是“Philip Morris”。看看这个。去年，该股上涨了32%，而自年初至今，它已上涨近26%。
这意味着，其今年迄今的表现已超过标普500指数的两倍多。但公平地说，这一表现很大程度上来自估值倍数的扩张。我们可以看到，该股的交易估值倍数远高于其历史平均水平。问题是，这合理吗？
好，我们需要考虑两件事。再一次，我们先仔细看看那些股息派发指标。目前，Philip Morris 的股息率约为3%。现在，看看这个收益率与历史水平相比如何。你可以看到它低得多。
事实上，在过去十年的大部分时间里，这只股票的收益率一直超过5%。在2020年崩盘期间，收益率一度接近8%。因此，可以把它看作一只高收益股票，一只将大部分自由现金流用于支付股息的股票。
这值得担忧吗？如果你了解管理层、资本配置以及业务的整体目的，其实并不值得担忧。我这么说是什么意思？好，我们必须明白，这是一家规模并未以大多数人希望看到的高速增长的企业。但是，看看这个。
看看 Philip Morris 的盈利能力表。你会注意到，这些业务的利润率极其强劲。事实上，在过去三到四年里，这些利润率大幅扩张。我们看到了利润率的扩张。这是一家拥有定价权的企业。
因为他们拥有定价权，因为他们拥有定价权，这使得自由现金流比你最初预期的更为稳定。管理层还表示，其目标是以股息形式将大部分资本返还给股东。因此，80%的自由现金流分配比例根本不是错误，它与管理层目标完全一致。
然而，你会看到，与历史相比，它的交易估值要高得多。我们已经在 ticker.com 上看到了这一点。但相比五年平均水平，它的交易价格溢价约30%。再一次，这似乎是投资者目前寻求避险的公司之一。
Now, we come to a stock that not only recently raised its dividends by nearly 9%, to reach 8.8%, but also performed exceptionally well during the past year. This stock is "Philip Morris".
Take a look at this. Last year, the stock rose by 32%, and since the beginning of the year until now, it has risen by nearly 26%. This means that its performance has more than doubled that of the S&P 500 index so far this year.
But to be fair, much of this performance came as a result of expanding financial multiples. We can see that the stock is trading at levels much higher than its historical average valuation multiples.
The question is, is this justified? Well, we need to take two things into consideration. Once again , let's start by taking a closer look at those dividend payout metrics. Currently, Philip Morris's dividend yield is around 3%.
Now, look at what this return looks like compared to what it has been historically. You can see that it is much less. In fact, this stock has been delivering a return of more than 5% for most of the past decade.
At one point, the yield reached nearly 8% during the 2020 crash. Therefore, consider this a high-yield stock, and a stock that uses most of its free cash flow to pay dividends.
Is this cause for concern? Well , not really if you understand management, capital allocation, and the overall purpose of the business. What do I mean by that? Well, we have to understand that this is a business whose size is not growing at the high rate that most people would like to see.
But, take a look at this. Look at the profitability sheet of Philip Morris. What you will notice is that the profit margins are extremely strong for these businesses. In fact, over the past three to four years, these margins have expanded considerably.
We are seeing an expansion in profit margins . This is a business that possesses pricing power. Because they have pricing power, and because they have pricing power, this allows free cash flow to be more stable than you might initially expect.
The management also stated that its goal is to return the majority of its capital to shareholders in the form of dividends. Therefore, a free cash flow allocation ratio of 80 % is not a mistake at all.
It is perfectly aligned with the management's objectives. However, you will see that it is trading at a much higher valuation compared to its history. We've already seen that on ticker.com.
But compared to the five-year average, it is trading at a price premium of about 30%. Once again, this appears to be one of the companies that investors are turning to for safety at the moment.
我们用股息贴现模型来分析，因为它主要支付股息，所以就用这个模型来看。如果仔细看，作为参考，它历史上的股息派发增长率约为4%。我们看到的是，如果它们未来继续保持这一水平，股票价值将是130美元，大约下跌35%。
不过，我们刚刚看到的是股息派发大幅增长了8.8%。它们未来能否维持更高的派息增长率？如果看盈利预期，你会发现它们预计未来几年增长约为11%、8%和9%，这意味着股息增长应该大致与之匹配。
那么，需要多高的股息增长率才能支撑当前股价？如果把增长率提高到约5%，我们得到169美元，而提高到约5.5%时，就非常接近当前股价了。因此，市场正在定价的是：这只股票应该能够以比过去几年快得多的速度提高股息。
Let's use the dividend discount model , since it primarily pays dividends, let's look at it through this model. If we take a closer look, you will see, for reference, that it has historically grown dividend payouts by about 4%.
What we are seeing is that if they continue with this in the future, the value of the stock will be $130, a decrease of approximately 35%. However, what we just saw was a massive increase in dividend payouts of 8.8%.
Can they maintain a higher level of distribution growth in the future? Well, if we look at the earnings estimates, you will find that they are expecting growth of around 11%, 8% and 9% over the next few years, which means that dividend growth should roughly match that .
So, what dividend growth rate is needed to justify the current share price? If we raise the rate to about 5%, we reach $169, and at about 5.5% we are very close to the current share price.
Therefore , the market is pricing in the fact that this stock should be able to increase dividends at a much faster rate than it has in the past few years.