$PNW · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-03
PNW 是一家有意思的公用事业公司，股息率 3.49%、市盈率 20 倍，预计到 2030 年因亚利桑那和数据中心扩张实现 5-6% 的年增长，但估值偏高，且这一增长已被计入价格；现在不是投资的合适时机，因为投资者为尚未发生的事情支付了全价。更好的做法是在周期低点买入，例如衰退时 PNW 可能下跌 40%、股息率达 5-6%，与 10 年期美国国债相当。
逐段跳播
我们马上从Pinnacle West Capital开始，这是一家总部位于亚利桑那州的公用事业公司，并解释投资公用事业意味着什么、最佳时机是什么时候，以及它如何融入你的投资组合。
Let's start immediately with Pinnacle West Capital, an Arizona-based utilities company, and explain what it means to invest in utilities, when is the best time to do so, and how it can fit into your investment portfolio.
我们有3.49%的良好股息率，市盈率20，这只股票正基于亚利桑那的增长前景以及数据中心的投资和扩张而增长。由于它是公用事业公司，投资它也意味着抗通胀保护；它可以随通胀上调价格，因为地方政府允许其实现与成本相符的更高投资资本回报。
We have a good dividend yield of 3.49%, a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, and a stock that is growing based on Arizona growth prospects and investments and expansions in data centers.
Since it is a utility company, investing in it also means protection against inflation; It can raise prices in line with inflation, as the local government allows it to achieve higher returns on invested capital in line with its costs.
预计该公司到2030年每年增长5%到6%。如果他们实现了这一点，并且或许因为数据中心支付更高的电费而看到价格有所改善，那么这些都是良好的积极因素。
The company is expected to grow 5 to 6 % annually until 2030. If they achieve that, and perhaps see some improvement in prices because data centers pay more for electricity , then those are good positives.
当然，这也需要投资。四年投资100亿美元不是小数目，尤其是考虑到目前的债务水平，但这在公用事业中很典型，你必须先建设，之后才能出售服务或使用它。
Of course, this also requires investment. Investing $10 billion over four years is not a small amount, especially with the current level of debt, but this is typical in utilities where you have to build first to sell the service or use it later.
如果一切管理得当，这将带来股息派发的持续增长，这对收益型投资者是好事。不过，看问题的时候，始终应该对照投资来检查我们当前的价格位置。这类设施总会遇到冲击，比如安然冲击和2002年的批发业务问题。股价在几个月内下跌了40%。
If everything is managed well, it will lead to continued growth in dividend payouts, which is good for yield investors. However, when looking at things, one should always check our current position in terms of price compared to the investment.
There are always shocks to these facilities, such as the Enron shock and the wholesale problems in 2002. The stock fell by 40% within a few months.
另外，像2007-2009年那样的衰退，始终是可能影响一家公司的因素。此外，2022年市场预期衰退时，价格要低得多。
Also, recessions, such as those of 2007-2009, are always something that can affect a company . In addition, the price was much lower in 2022 when the market anticipated a recession.
所以，说到这类设施，你应该问自己：当一切都处于高估状态时，我会买入这只股票并建仓吗？股价被高估了。增长已经反映在价格里了。
So, when it comes to these facilities, you should ask yourself: Would I buy this stock and build a position in it when everything is in a state of overvaluation? The stock price is overpriced. The growth is already priced in.
如果发生衰退，公司仍会继续运营。可能会有一些再融资问题、一些高利息成本，他们可能不得不卖掉一些东西，但业务和核心基本面仍会保留，因为我非常确定，你晚上还是会继续开着灯。
If a recession occurs, the company will continue to operate. There may be some refinancing issues, some high interest costs, and they may have to sell something, but the business and core fundamentals will remain, because I am absolutely certain that you will continue to keep the light on at night.
但投资这类设施的关键在于入场时点。当人们担心衰退时，比如说数据中心的扩张暂停了一段时间，暂停6个月。这只股票下跌了40%，股息率为5-6%，与10年期美国国债收益率相当。所以我会说，如果你想投资这个，就在出现周期性衰退时看看它。
But the key when it comes to investing in facilities is the timing of the entry point. When there are fears of a recession, let's say the expansion of data centers has paused for a moment, for 6 months.
This stock is down 40%, and the dividend yield is 5-6%, in line with 10-year Treasury bonds. So, I would say , well, if you want to invest in this, take a look at it when there is a cyclical recession.
对于这些公司，在亚利桑那州，尤其是如果你了解那里的市场，你知道它会有周期性，因此最好在周期的最低点买入。那时候买入非常困难，因为当时的情况看起来很差，不像现在看起来很好。但我们见过很多5年前看起来很好的公司，比如Nike，崩塌并逐渐消失。
With these companies, in Arizona, especially if you know the market there, you know it will be cyclical, and therefore it is best to buy at the lowest levels of the cycle. It was very difficult to buy at that time because the situation looked bad compared to now when it looks good.
But we have seen many companies that looked good 5 years ago, such as Nike, collapse and fade away.
对我来说，这是一个非常有意思的故事，但现在不是投资这类设施的合适时机，因为你是在为一件尚未发生的事情支付全价。我更喜欢在没有任何预期、情况看起来很糟的时候去看这类设施，那时我是在买入价值。
To me it's a very interesting story, but not the right time to invest in the facilities because you're paying the full price for something that still has to happen. I prefer to look at facilities when nothing is expected, when things look bad and I'm buying value.