PYPL 被低估，值得买入；较低的 P/FCF 倍数、改善的 ROIC 以及股票回购为应对竞争提供了安全边际。
逐段跳播
现在，第三家公司，PayPal。各位，他们拥有Venmo、Braintree，以及在全球调动数千亿美元的大型企业服务业务。该股多年来一直在下跌，但自由现金流是真实的，管理层也在继续回购股票。
他们的新任CEO Enrique Lores大约6个月前上任，正试图精简整个公司。
Now, company number three, " PayPal". Guys, they own Venmo, Braintree, and huge business services that move hundreds of billions of dollars around the world. The stock has been declining for years, but the free cash flow is real and management continues to repurchase shares.
Their new CEO, Enrique Lores , took office about 6 months ago and is trying to streamline the entire company.
那么，有哪些积极的预期呢？有新的传闻说会有新买家收购，此前有报道称谈判集中在每股60.50美元。PayPal还上调了今年的盈利指引。由于前景负面，Stripe退出了交易，而在上一季度，销售额增长了5%，但营业利润下降了8%。
So, what are the positive expectations? Well, there is new talk of a takeover by a new buyer after previous talks reportedly centered on $60.50 per share. PayPal also raised its earnings guidance for this year.
Due to the negative outlook, Stripe withdrew from the deal, and in the last quarter sales grew by 5%, but operating profit fell by 8%.
那么，让我们来看看这件了不起的事。我并不担心市值和公司价值，因为他们持有的所有现金。那些钱都是欠海外人士的。所以，这对我来说不是什么大问题。我喜欢的是他们的资本回报率持续改善。
各位，它曾经是9%，曾经是8%，曾经是10%，曾经是11%。现在，他们去年的资本回报率是14.5%，使他们的5年平均达到12.3%。各位，看看这个。他们去年的自由现金流是66亿美元，相比之下是53亿美元。
他们的售价是自由现金流的七倍。七倍。自由现金流的七倍。我是说，各位，这里有很大的潜力。
So, let's take a look at this amazing thing. Well, I'm not worried about the market value and the value of the company because of all the cash they hold. That's all money owed to people abroad.
So, this is not a major concern for me. What I like is that their return on capital continues to improve . Guys, it was 9%, it was 8%, it was 10%, it was 11%. Now, their return on capital last year was 14.5%, bringing their 5- year average to 12.3%.
Hey guys , look at this. Their free cash flow was $6.6 billion last year, compared to $5.3 billion. They are sold for seven times the free cash flow . seven. Seven times the free cash flow. I mean, guys, there's a lot of potential here.
让我们来审视我们的八大支柱。令人兴奋的八大支柱。长期承诺是合理的。看看这个，他们回购了这些股票的24%。他们在过去五年里回购了公司四分之一的股份，而企业的自由现金流也改善了。因此，作为股东，你获得了他们自由现金流中更大的一份，而他们成功地让这部分现金流实现了增长。这是一家能够识别股票被低估情况的公司。
Let's examine our eight pillars. Exciting the eight pillars. Long-term commitments are reasonable. Look at this, they are buying back 24% of these shares. They have repurchased a quarter of the company in the past five years, and the business's free cash flow has improved .
Therefore, as a shareholder, you receive a larger share of their free cash flow, which they have successfully grown . This is a company that recognizes situations where stocks are undervalued.
接下来，让我们看看分析师的预期。分析师预计他们的利润将从今年的5.38上升到7.58。同样，按20倍的市盈率计算，股价达到150美元。你明白为什么当股价是300美元时，我们说“是的，我们对这家公司不感兴趣”，而当股价达到40美元时，我们说“是的，我们对这家公司非常感兴趣”了吗？
再说一次，这是假设他们是对的。但即使他们错了，这里也有很大的安全边际。
Next, let's take a look at the analysts' estimates. Well, analysts expect their profits to rise from 5.38 this year to 7.58. Again , at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, the share price reaches $150.
Do you understand why, when the price was $300, we said, "Yes, we are not interested in this company." When the price reached $40, we said, "Yes, we are very interested in this company."
Again, assuming they are right. But even if they are wrong, there is a large margin of safety here.
各位，看看这个营收增长。不算巨大，但仍然存在。4%、4.6%、3.75%、7.79%。所以，他们已经有了竞争。他们的增长会放缓，但他们在应对这种增长方面更聪明。这就是我喜欢他们的地方。
Guys , look at this revenue growth. It's not huge, but it's still there . 4%, 4.6%, 3.75%, 7.79%. So, they already have competition. They will have slow growth, but they are smarter in dealing with that growth. That's what I like about them .
那么，让我们运行一个股票分析工具，根据我们自己的假设来看看公司的价值。我做了一个十年分析，营收增长率为3%、5%和7%。他们的自由现金流高于利润率，所以我会关注他们的自由现金流。
我选择了14%、17%和20%这几个百分比。各位，请记住，他们去年达到了19.3%，过去十年也是19.3%，而我仍然把我的平均假设定在17%。
So, let's run a stock analysis tool to see the company's value based on our own assumptions. I conducted a ten-year analysis, with revenue growth rates of 3%, 5%, and 7%. Their free cash flow is higher than their profit margin, so I will focus on their free cash flow.
I chose percentages of 14%, 17% and 20%. Guys, keep in mind that they achieved 19.3% last year, and 19.3% for the past ten years , and I'm still setting my average assumption at 17 %.
关于市盈率，我在这里选择了较低的比率，尽管资本回报率在改善。我选择了14、16和18，我大概不该这么做。也许我应该提高我的安全边际，因为我犹豫的原因是这个领域竞争激烈。但我接受了这一点，说，好吧，15、18和21。
买入时我应该关注的是，如果我有顾虑，就应该提高安全边际，也就是提高要求的回报率。但就目前而言，我们在这里把我们的目标回报率定为9.5%。我按下了分析按钮。当前股价是每股53美元。
我的低价在75到80之间，高价在150到190之间，平均价在110到126之间，这表明平均回报率为23%。
Regarding the price-to- earnings ratio, I chose a lower ratio here even though the return on capital is improving. I chose 14, 16 and 18, which I probably shouldn't have done. Perhaps I should have increased my margin of safety because the reason for my hesitation is that there is a lot of competition in this field.
But I accepted that and said, OK, 15, 18, and 21. What I should focus on when buying is that if I have concerns, I should increase the margin of safety, which means increasing the required return.
But for now, we will set a rate of 9.5% here for our desired return. I pressed the analyze button. The current share price is $53 per share. I have a low price between 75 and 80, a high price between 150 and 190, and an average price between 110 and 126, which shows an average return of 23%.
各位，我想让你们知道一件事。当Stripe在股价为40美元时提出每股60美元的报价时，我非常愤怒。我对自己说，这家公司每股价值远不止60美元。别让Stripe以每股60美元买走它。
我相信这家公司今天的价值在120到130美元之间，正如你在这里我的数字中所看到的。
Hey guys, I want you to know one thing. When Stripe made the offer at $60 per share, while the share price was $40, I was furious. I said to myself, this company is worth much more than $60 per share.
Don't let Stripe buy it for $60 a share. I believe the value of this company today is between $120 and $130, as you can see in my figures here.
这个频道对 $PYPL 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。