$QCOM · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-31
Qualcomm 是长期机会，但近期业绩可能疲弱，因为包括 Windows PC 在内的消费市场疲软，而服务器处理器预计要到 2028 年才推出，且尚未确认。上行空间可能来自消费端疲软程度低于预期、服务器时间提前至 2027 年，或下半年数据中心产品；按约 16 倍远期盈利计算，其价值不应大幅缩水，因此是他的第二选择。
逐段跳播
AMD 的股价下跌了约 11%，Qualcomm 下跌超过 11%，ARM 下跌约 10%。
AMD's stock fell by about 11%, Qualcomm's by more than 11%, and ARM's by about 10%.
Qualcomm 在处理器领域有机会，但在服务器处理器方面还不一定。目前，他们算是正在进入 Windows 市场，对吧？个人电脑市场。但正如我们听到的，消费市场非常疲软。我不认为 Qualcomm 会有什么不同。
目前，Qualcomm 在服务器处理器方面有机会，但预计要到 2028 年晚些时候。
Qualcomm has an opportunity in the field of processors, but not necessarily in server processors yet. Right now, they're kind of entering the Windows market, aren't they? The personal computer market.
But as we hear, the consumer market is very weak. I don't think it will be any different for Qualcomm. Currently, Qualcomm has an opportunity in server processors, but that is expected to be later in 2028.
在这里，我认为市场很难预测某只特定股票会如何反应。因为如果消费市场疲软，就不只是个人电脑的问题，对吧？我预计手机和其他消费产品，以及整体消费科技，也会疲软。因此，我不认为 Qualcomm 会交出很好的业绩。但并不总是关乎业绩，而是关乎接下来会发生什么。
Here, I think the market is difficult to predict how a particular stock will react. Because if the consumer market is weak, it's not just about personal computers, is it? I expect phones and other consumer products, and consumer technology in general, to be weak as well.
Therefore, I don't think Qualcomm will deliver great results. But it's not always about the results. Rather, it concerns what is to come.
至于 Qualcomm，如果你是它的投资者，可能会有一些积极的事情出现，这可能会对股价营造出良好的乐观情绪。当然，我们知道消费市场将会疲软。如果疲软程度低于预期，这本身可能就是一件积极的事，即使我们看到下滑。
As for Qualcomm, if you are an investor in it, there are some things that may come up that are positive, which may create a good optimistic feeling about the stock price. Certainly, we know that the consumer market will be weak.
If the weakness is less than expected, that in itself may be a positive thing, even if we see a decline.
另一件事是，尽管他们不预期其中央处理器（CPU）在 2028 年之前有机会，但如果他们告诉我们，比如“我们预计服务器处理器在 2027 年会有机会”，那么任何这样的小变化都可能利好该股。
The other thing is that even though they don't expect opportunities for their central processing units (CPUs) before 2028, if they tell us, for example, "We expect server processors to be an opportunity in 2027," then any small changes like that could benefit the stock.
最后一点是，Qualcomm 尽管缺乏服务器处理器，但今年下半年会有其他形式的数据中心产品推出。如果这些产品也受到当前短缺的推动，并能帮助他们超越数据中心收入，那可能成为股价上涨的一个理由。
The last thing is that Qualcomm, despite lacking server processors, has other forms of data center products coming in the second half of this year. If these products are also driven by the current shortage and can help them surpass data center revenues, that could be a reason for the stock price to rise.
对我来说，如果你在寻找长期机会，Qualcomm 就是这样。运行 Windows 的电脑那一块将会疲软。2028 年可能是新服务器之年，这是投资者愿意听到的，但仍未得到确认。
For me, Qualcomm is like that if you're looking for a long-term opportunity. The side for computers running Windows will be weak. 2028 could be the year for new servers, something investors would like to hear, but it is still not confirmed.
Qualcomm 的远期市盈率约为 16。这告诉我，即使他们达不到预期，我也不认为其价值会缩水多少。Qualcomm 会是我的第二选择。我们下周还有 Qualcomm 的财报。
Qualcomm is sitting at a forward earnings ratio of around 16. This tells me that even if they don't meet expectations, I don't think their value will shrink much. Qualcomm would be my second choice. We also have Qualcomm's earnings next week.
观察点
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。