$QCOM · Schwab Network · 2026-11-04
QCOM 表现落后，年内下跌 4.9%，而科技板块上涨 20%、SMH 上涨 47%；其均线密集于 169-177 区间，RSI 低于 50，显示缺乏明确方向性，且在财报前看空信号并不可靠。该分析师倾向看多，采用 12 月 18 日到期的 165/180/190 看涨蝶式组合，盈亏平衡点为 168.30，若走势超出正负 16.4% 的预期波动区间，则在风险可控的前提下寻求持续走强。
逐段跳播
对 Qualcomm 来说是一条利好消息。SpaceX 与该公司签署协议，为其移动服务提供网络技术。到目前为止，Qualcomm 是这一方面的赢家。
news win for Qualcomm. SpaceX signing a deal with the company to provide network technology for its mobile service. Qualcomm the winner on this front so far.
别忘了，Qualcomm 今天还将在收盘后公布季度业绩。此前上一季度的财报表现喜忧参半。分析师预计调整后每股收益为216，营收超过101亿。
Keep in mind Qualcomm also set to report its quarterly results after the bell today. It follows a mixed report last quarter. Analysts looking for 216 per share on adjusted earnings and revenue more than 10.1 billion
受与 SpaceX 相关消息影响，Qualcomm 股价上涨。对 Qualcomm 来说，这确实是一条相当有意思的消息，再加上即将发布的财报。
shares of Qualcomm rising in reaction to the news related to SpaceX. Some pretty interesting news for Qualcomm to be sure in addition to the earnings coming up here.
而且我们可以看到，它近期表现有些落后。今年以来下跌4.9%。表现落后于科技板块和 SMH 半导体 ETF，后两者分别上涨20%和47%。
And we can see that a bit of an underperformer as of late. Minus 4.9% on the year. Underperforming tech and the SMH Semiconductor ETF which are up 20% and 47% respectively there.
Qualcomm 与这里其他一些芯片制造商相比，算是有些不同的一类。
Qualcomm a bit of a different beast than some of the other chip makers here.
Qualcomm 更专注于无线连接芯片、内置微型调制解调器这类东西。所以，在这种情况下，我们看到 Qualcomm 大致处于这一组的底部，与 Broadcom 和 Nvidia 相近，同时被 Cisco、Intel、Marll 以及其他一些公司甩在后面。
Qualcomm focuses more on uh wireless connectivity chips, internal tiny modems, that kind of thing here. So uh what we see now uh in this case though Qualcomm kind of near the bottom of this group here kind of in line with Broadcom and Nvidia meanwhile outpaced by Cisco, Intel, Marll, some of these other names here.
在155附近出现小幅跳空高开之后，我们目前处于这个反复出现的底部区间之内。这里还有一个值得注意的高点，与近期在179附近形成的跳空缺口相吻合；此外还有一个位于196附近的初始高点，除了少数几次收于该水平之上外，至今尚未被令人信服地突破。
We are between this repeated floor after a small gap up that we saw here near 155. We also had a notable high point here that lines up with a a gap that formed more recently near 179 and an initial high here near 196 that has yet to be uh compellingly breached except for a handful of closes above that level.
当我们展开图表、接着看移动平均线时，它们都相当紧密地聚集在约169到177之间。
when we advance our chart and when we think about our moving averages next, they're all clustered together pretty closely here between about 169 to 177 or so.
所以，当移动平均线聚拢在一起、走势横盘时，这说明缺乏明确的方向性。我们确实看到了一定的下行转变，深蓝色的5日 EMA 下穿了较慢的均线。
So, when we have moving averages that are kind of lumped together with a sideways trend, it speaks to lack of strong directionality here. We did have a bit of a a shift uh to the downside here with our 5-day EMA in dark blue crossing over its slower counterparts.
但是，在即将进入财报期之际，我不会真的把判断押在这样的事情上，尤其是因为财报可能很快成为催化剂，完全改写这类走势。
But, uh, you know, as we head into earnings though, I would not really, you know, hang my hat on something like that, especially uh because of how quickly earnings can be a catalyst that can completely rewrite this type of story.
RSI 也呈现类似的下滑，但同样有这一前提。我们处于50中轴线下方，不过在临近财报时，动能往往会放缓。所以，这其实没什么值得大书特书的。
RSI exhibiting a similar downward slide, but with the same caveat. We're below that 50 midline, but momentum often slows as we head into earnings here. So, uh, uh, this is not really, uh, anything to write home about.
所以我们目前看到的是，这些移动平均线形成了明显的汇聚，给我们提供了一个潜在的转折点。如果我们突破它上方，那将是一个值得关注的区域，可能成为支撑位，也可能出现向上突破。无论哪种情况都值得留意。
So, uh, what we have though is this notable confluence of these moving averages to give us a potential kind of pivot point here. If we were to break above it, it would be an interesting, uh, area to watch for potential support or for a potential upside breakouts. uh in either way.
所以当我们看成交量分布时，可以看到在160到180这个区域有大量的交易活动积累。我们的控制点略低于175。所以如果我们真的开始跌出这个交易密集区，下行方向大约在140附近会重新出现活跃。
So when we look at volume profile, what we have is a big accumulation of trading activity here in this area 160 to 180. Our point of control comes in a little bit below 175. So if we do start to drop out of this heavily traded area, things start to pick up again to the downside around 40 140.
在200附近上方还有另一个较小的交易活动集中区。所以这些是未来可能值得关注的一些区域。当然。那么，当我们考虑这里的预期波动时，我们会看向12月18日，也就是我们的12月18日月度期权。
这就是我们这里的绿色方框。所以，上下大约16.4%，无论哪个方向，都可能是我们的预期波动范围。
We have another smaller uh pocket of activity up here near 200. So those would be some areas to watch going forward potentially. Sure. So, when we think about our expected move here, we're going to look out to December 18th, our December 18th monthly.
That's our green box here. So, plus or minus about 16.4% here either way potentially is our expected move.
这次我们要寻找的更多是一个看涨的布局。买入一份12月18日到期、165/180/190的看涨蝶式期权，支付330美元的权利金。最大亏损就是我们支付的330美元权利金。
And we're going to look for more of a bullish setup this time. Plus one December 18th, 165, 180, 190 call butterfly at a 330 debit. Max loss is our debit paid $330 here.
如果到期时正好落在我们双倍做空的180行权价上，最大利润将是1,170美元。盈亏平衡点是168.30，较当前上涨3.3%。
Uh max profit if we were to expire right at our our double short strike of 180 would be 1,170 here. Uh break even 16830 3.3% to the upside.
我们用于保护的190多头行权价，也正好与那个预期波动区域的边缘吻合，大约向上16%到17%。所以，这是一笔押注持续走强的交易，同时附加一个前提：即使出现超出预期的波动，我们也不会让盈利变成亏损。
Our uh uh protective long strike at 190 lines up with the edge of that expected move area as well here about uh 16 17% to the upside. So, a trade looking for continued strength with the added uh caveat that we wouldn't have our winner turn into a loser if we get a bigger than expected move.
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。