$QCOM · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-05
高通是高度确信的买入标的:SpaceX 5G 交易(条款未披露)是额外利好,而他认为数据中心扩张将是下一个催化剂;股价 169 美元,对比其 282 美元的公允价值,远期市盈率 13 倍、接近多年来最低,低估值足以抵消 2026 和 2027 年智能手机出货量可能出现的疲软。
逐段跳播
SpaceX 给 Qualcomm 的股票投资者带来了好消息:Qualcomm 周三宣布,SpaceX 已选择其 Dragon Wing 蜂窝基础设施平台,为其 Starlink 移动服务的全国地面 5G 网络提供支持。
SpaceX delivered great news to Qualcomm's stock investors, as Qualcomm announced on Wednesday that SpaceX had selected its Dragon Wing cellular infrastructure platforms to power its national terrestrial 5G network for Starlink mobile service.
所以,这对 Qualcomm 来说是个极好的消息,它已展现出与新的公司和新品类共同扩张的能力,这也是促使我将 Qualcomm 股票加入我的投资组合的原因之一,也是我将其评为买入机会的原因之一。
So, this is excellent news for Qualcomm, which has shown an ability to expand with new companies and categories, and this is one of the reasons that prompted me to add Qualcomm shares to my portfolio and one of the reasons that made me rate Qualcomm as a buy opportunity.
我想深入探讨这些细节,弄清楚这对 Qualcomm 股票投资者意味着什么,向你更新我对该公司的公允价值估算,并看看即便在这条消息之后它是否仍是买入机会,因为这条消息推动 Qualcomm 股价上涨了 2.4%。
I wanted to delve into these details, find out what this means for Qualcomm stock investors, update you on my fair value estimate for the company, and see if it's still a buying opportunity even after this news, because it pushed Qualcomm shares up by 2.4%.
据 Qualcomm 称,这项新协议将使两家公司能够开始部署先进的 5G 服务,并为未来几年打造 AI 驱动的 6G 网络奠定基础提供了机会。
According to Qualcomm, the new deal will allow the two companies to begin deploying advanced 5G service and provide an opportunity to lay the groundwork for an AI-powered 6G network in the coming years.
这是未来几年可能推动 Qualcomm 股价上涨的催化剂之一,即向下一代——第六代而非第五代——的升级周期。
This is one of the catalysts that could drive Qualcomm's stock up in the coming years, namely the upgrade cycle to the next generation, the sixth generation, instead of the fifth.
请记住,智能手机和蜂窝网络行业是 Qualcomm 的核心业务类别之一。它正在向汽车领域、个人电脑行业扩张,并将在明年晚些时候向数据中心行业扩张,但智能手机和蜂窝网络类别仍是收入和利润的主要类别。
Remember that the smartphone and cellular network industries are among Qualcomm's core business categories. It is expanding into the automotive sector, the personal computer industry, and later next year into the data center industry , but the smartphone and cellular network category remains the main category for revenue and profits.
他们接着表示,根据 Qualcomm 执行副总裁兼技术规划、边缘解决方案和数据中心总经理的说法,他们与 SpaceX 的协议设计方式是部署将于明年开始,并从那时起大幅加速。
They went on to say that their agreement with SpaceX is designed in such a way that deployment will begin next year, and will accelerate significantly from then on, according to Qualcomm's executive vice president and general manager of technology planning, edge solutions and data centers.
他补充说,该协议在发布容量方面持续数年,同时我们正努力将覆盖范围扩大到全国所有地区。因此,这对 Qualcomm 来说可能是一笔大交易,尽管本文未披露协议条款。
He added that the agreement extends for several years in terms of publishing capacity while we work to expand coverage to include all parts of the country. Therefore, this could be a big deal for Qualcomm, although the terms of the agreement were not disclosed in this article.
由于这些声明中未披露协议条款及其财务影响,我没有将这条消息纳入我的贴现现金流估值模型。我不想猜测这将对公司业绩产生多大影响,但我可以说的是,它很可能对其业绩产生积极影响。
Since the terms of the agreement and the financial implications were not disclosed in these statements, I did not include this news in my discounted cash flow valuation model .
I don't want to speculate on the extent of the impact this will have on the company's results, but what I can say is that it is likely to have a positive impact on its results.
因此,我对 Qualcomm 的自由现金流估算很可能在接下来一段时间被上调。即便没有这条消息,我也已经估算出 Qualcomm 的股票被显著低估了。
Therefore, my free cash flow estimates for Qualcomm are likely to be revised higher in the coming period. I had already estimated that Qualcomm's stock was significantly undervalued even without this news.
我此前押注 Qualcomm 在数据中心类别的成功将成为下一个可能推动其股价上涨的催化剂。
I was betting on Qualcomm's success in the data center category to be the next catalyst that could drive its stock up.
所以,这是一个很棒的额外收获。我计算出 Qualcomm 股票的公允价值为 282 美元,而即便在今天这条消息之后,其股价仍为 169 美元,在我看来这使其被显著低估。
So, this was a great added bonus. I calculated the fair value of Qualcomm stock at $282, and even after today's news, it is trading at $169, which makes it significantly undervalued in my opinion.
目前,Qualcomm 股票的前瞻市盈率仅为 13 倍,这接近我几年来能够买入该股票的最低水平。在 2026 年初的一小段时间里,你可以以更低的价格买入该股票,但估值上升得非常快。
Currently, Qualcomm stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 13, which is close to the lowest level I've been able to buy this stock at in several years. For a brief period in early 2026, you could buy the stock at a lower price, but the valuation rose very quickly.
回顾 2025 年,还有另一个短暂的时刻,我能够以更低的价格买入该股票。
Looking back to 2025, there was also another brief moment when I was able to buy the stock at a lower price.
就是这样。你确实不可能以比这低得多的估值买到 Qualcomm 的股票了。她提到,其核心品类之一是智能手机行业,该行业在2026年处境艰难,而且2027年的总销量很可能继续艰难。
And that was all. You really couldn't have bought Qualcomm stock at a much lower valuation . Now, she mentioned that one of its core categories is the smartphone industry, which is struggling in 2026 and is likely to continue to struggle in terms of total unit sales in 2027.
不过,由于消费者愿意支付更高的价格来让手机具备 AI 能力,它很可能实现更高的单部手机平均售价,并在每部手机中集成更多组件。
However, it is likely to achieve higher average selling prices per smartphone and incorporate more components into each phone, as consumers are willing to pay higher prices to get AI capabilities in their phones.
由于数据中心对同类组件的需求不断增长,导致内存和存储组件成本上升,他们被迫支付更高的价格。制造商被迫与数据中心建设者争夺同类组件,这正导致消费电子产品价格上涨。
They are forced to pay higher prices due to the increased costs of memory and storage components resulting from the growing demand in data centers for similar components. Manufacturers are forced to compete with data center builders for similar components , and this is causing consumer electronics prices to rise .
然而,尽管存在这些不利因素,低估值以及数据中心业务的扩张前景仍让我对 Qualcomm 的股票感到兴奋。我将该股评为买入机会,信心程度相对较高,并且相当确信它确实会是一笔出色的投资。
However, despite these headwinds, the low valuation and the prospects for expansion in data centers make me excited about Qualcomm stock. I have rated the stock as a buying opportunity with a relatively high degree of conviction and a relatively high level of confidence that it will indeed be a great investment.
我的投资组合中持有 Qualcomm 的股票,并且有兴趣继续加仓。
I own Qualcomm stock in my portfolio and I am interested in adding more of it.
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 9 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。