$QCOM · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-06
按现金流折现估算，高通公允价值为282美元，而现价为165美元，约有71%的上行空间。与Meta和Amazon的交易使其数据中心业务有望从2027年开始贡献收入，可能提升收入、利润和自由现金流并抵消新增风险；他最大的担忧是智能手机疲软，因消费电子下滑且2026年内存和存储价格上涨，但他认为利好大于风险，持有该股并希望加仓。
逐段跳播
我要讨论的第一只被低估的半导体股票是 Qualcomm。我估算了我认为 Qualcomm 从今天到非常遥远的未来将产生的自由现金流，并将这些现金流折现为现值，因为未来的钱对我来说不如今天口袋里的钱值钱。
这里涉及资金的时间价值以及这些未来现金流的风险，这就是我对所有这些未来现金流应用折现率的原因。
The first undervalued semiconductor stock I will discuss is Qualcomm. I estimated the amount of free cash flow that I think Qualcomm will generate from today and into the very distant future, and discounted those cash flows to their present value because money in the future is worth less to me than the money in my pocket today.
There is the element of the time value of money and the risk of those future cash flows , and that is why I apply a discount rate to all those future cash flows.
因此，这一计算让我估算出我认为该股今天所值价格的公允价值。我将它与当前市场价格进行比较，以判断该股是被低估，还是正在折价出售。据此，对于 Qualcomm，我计算出该股的公允价值为282美元。
当前市场价格为165美元，在我看来，这意味着 Qualcomm 股票约有71%的上涨空间。
Therefore, this calculation leads me to an estimate of the fair value of the price that I believe the stock is worth today. I compare that to the current market price to determine whether the stock is undervalued or being sold at a discount.
Accordingly, for Qualcomm, I calculated the fair value of the stock at $282. The current market price is $165, leaving an upside potential of about 71% in my opinion for Qualcomm stock .
当然，关于 Qualcomm 最乐观的因素是它预计将进入数据中心领域。它已与包括 MetaPlatforms 和 Amazon 在内的多家大型云计算公司签署了一些协议，并有望在2027年开始产生收入，这可能提升公司的收入、利润和自由现金流，并抵消公司面临的部分上升风险。
Of course, the most optimistic factor regarding Qualcomm is its anticipated entry into the data center sector . It has signed some deals with major cloud computing companies, including MetaPlatforms and Amazon, and is positioned to start generating revenue in 2027, which could boost the company’s revenue, profits, and free cash flow and offset some of the increased risks the company faces.
我对 Qualcomm 最大的担忧是消费电子行业的衰退。2026年带来了内存和存储等零部件价格的上涨，这对智能手机等消费电子产品来说是一道障碍。Qualcomm 从智能手机行业获得了可观的收入和利润，因此该行业的挫折对 Qualcomm 来说无疑是个坏消息。
My biggest concern regarding Qualcomm is the decline of the consumer electronics industry. The year 2026 brought higher prices for components such as memory and storage, and this was a hurdle for consumer electronics such as smartphones.
Qualcomm derives a significant amount of revenue and profit from the smartphone industry, so setbacks in that industry were undoubtedly bad news for Qualcomm.
不过，我认为积极因素大于风险，我认为 Qualcomm 是一只被低估的半导体股票，投资者现在就可以在11月将其加入自己的投资组合。
However, I believe the positives outweigh the risks, and I see Qualcomm as an undervalued semiconductor stock that investors can add to their portfolios now in November.
我的投资组合中已经持有 Qualcomm 股票，并且我有兴趣继续加仓。
I already own Qualcomm shares in my portfolio, and I am interested in adding more.
观察点
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。