$QQQ

纳斯达克(QQQ)周线与日线图均偏多且动能强劲,但日线周期已成熟并接近潜在顶部区域,需保持谨慎。

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《US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX NDX RUT & VIX Price Projections & Cycle Timing》
Steve Miller发布 2026-10-03 · 8 段内容
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8 段内容
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这是周线级别上的罗素指数指标。它遭受的技术面损伤远大于标普或纳斯达克指数。

This is the Russell indicator on the weekly timeframe. It has suffered far greater technical damage than the S&P or Nasdaq indices.

纳斯达克指数更加强劲。我们接下来就看它。现在来看纳斯达克指数的周线图。周线结构依然具有建设性,价格保持在所有重要的周线均线上方,本周正朝着新的历史高点迈进。

The Nasdaq index is even stronger. We will take a look at it next. And now, here is the weekly chart for the Nasdaq index. The weekly structure remains constructive with the price staying above all significant weekly averages and moving towards a new record high this week.

顶部这个延伸区域有一个来自上一轮周期的非常重要的周期高点,同时还有一些重要的月线斐波那契水平。总体而言,在这张周线图上,我们仍然拥有上行动能。我们的交易动能是正面的,没有出现像罗素指数那样的崩塌。

This extension area here at the top has a very important cycle peak from the previous cycle, and also some important monthly Fibonacci levels. Overall, in this weekly chart, we still have upward momentum.

Our trading momentum is positive, and there is no collapse similar to what we saw in the Russell index.

现在我们来看日线图。因此,这个指标显然仍是主要指标中最强的。它今天早些时候创下了约31,018的新历史高点,即便现在从该水平回落,它仍保持在上升的“细条”上方,并远高于其89日移动均线。

Now, we will move on to the daily chart. Therefore, this indicator is clearly still the strongest among the major indicators. It reached a new record high of around 31,018 earlier today, and even after pulling back from that level now, it is still holding its position above the rising "slim bar" and well above its 89-day moving average.

短期交易动能是正面的。这就是根据动能将我们的K线涂成红色、绿色或灰色的“反射探测器”。自9月中旬以来它一直保持正面,我们的反转探测器也显示出正面动能。

Short-term trading momentum is positive. This is the " reflective detector" that colors our candles red, green, or gray based on momentum. It has remained positive since mid- September, and our reversal detector is also showing positive momentum.

但是,就像标普一样,这是一个成熟的日线周期。我们正走向一个必须警惕出现峰值的区域。因此,当我们把周线和日线这两个时间框架结合起来时,“Salim”所指出的背离就变得非常明显。纳斯达克指数强劲到足以创出新高。它的周线结构依然具有建设性。

But, just like S&P , this is a mature daily cycle . We are moving towards an area where we must be vigilant for the possibility of a peak. Therefore, when we combine these two timeframes, the weekly and the daily, the discrepancy that "Salim" pointed out becomes very clear.

The Nasdaq index was strong enough to set a new high. Its weekly structure is still constructive.

如果美国国债价格继续下跌、收益率再次上升,我们将关注这种压力是否像迄今为止那样仍集中在市场较疲弱的部分,还是会开始蔓延到标普和纳斯达克指数。

If Treasury bond prices continue to fall and yields rise again, we will be watching to see whether this pressure remains concentrated in the weaker parts of the market as we have seen so far, or whether it will start to spread to the S&P and Nasdaq indices.

你可以看到,纳斯达克指数在全部三个时间框架上仍然非常看涨。

You can see that the Nasdaq index is still very bullish across all three timeframes.

观察点

美国国债收益率上升,压力向纳斯达克蔓延
如果压力从市场较弱的部分蔓延至标普和纳斯达克指数
持续进行中债券市场数据
若蔓延发生,则削弱看涨论点;若压力仍集中在其他领域,则支持该论点

这个频道对 $QQQ 的历次判断

Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-03看涨本条
这是周线级别上的罗素指数指标。它遭受的技术面损伤远大于标普或纳斯达克指数。
2026-10-02
我们将讨论为什么这对股票很重要,然后我们会在高收益债券和罗素指数中跟踪这一关系,在那里我们看到的技术面损伤远大于标普和纳斯达克指数中所看到的。
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