$QS · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-31
QuantumScape 只适合风险承受能力极高的投资者，属于高风险高回报的吸引力买入标的：7月27日以5美元上调至买入，目前约4美元，年内迄今已下跌60%。支撑因素包括研发进展、Honda 测试、Eagle 产线产出、强劲的2027-2028年生产目标以及较低的现金消耗。它可能归零，也可能带来100倍回报，不存在平均结果；AI 数据中心和国防领域的扩张可能扩大这一机会。
逐段跳播
QuantumScape 的股价目前约为每股 4 美元。当然，我在大约 7 月 27 日将该股评级上调至“买入”，当时其股价为每股 5 美元。
QuantumScape's stock is trading at approximately $4 per share. Of course, I upgraded the stock rating to "buy" on approximately July 27 when it was trading at $5 per share.
2026 年初，我认为这只股票定价过高，而总体来看，该股自年初以来已下跌 60%。该公司正在开发固态电池技术，旨在改进目前用于电动汽车及其他类别的锂离子技术。
At the beginning of 2026, I thought the stock was overpriced, and overall, the stock has fallen by 60% since the beginning of the year. The company is developing solid-state battery technology, which aims to improve upon the lithium-ion technology currently used in electric vehicles and other categories.
电动汽车是该公司固态电池技术的首要目标领域，但管理团队此前曾提到过向消费电子领域扩展的可能性，而最近公司已开始向人工智能数据中心和国防领域扩展，将其作为实现工业基础多元化的潜在方向，让这项技术得以应用。
Electric vehicles are the primary target sector for the company’s solid-state battery technology , but the management team has previously mentioned the possibility of expanding into consumer electronics, and more recently, the company has begun expanding into artificial intelligence data centers and defense sectors as potential areas to diversify its industrial base where its technology can be used.
他们取得了显著成就，达成了重大目标，而且有证据表明，他们的技术和开发进展顺利。他们与本田的合作已经有了一个非常好的开端。
They have achieved remarkable accomplishments , reached major goals, and evidence suggests that their technology and development are progressing well . Their partnership with Honda has already gotten off to a great start.
他们正在与其他工业公司一起测试其技术，公司要开始产生真正、有意义的收入可能还需要一段时间，但到目前为止，他们的研发工作一直按计划推进，甚至好于预期。
They are testing their technology with other industrial companies, and it may take some time before the company starts generating real, meaningful revenue, but their research and development efforts have so far gone according to plan, if not better than expected.
你可以在这里看到 QuantumScape 股价的走势。该股自年初以来已下跌 60%，而朝着管理团队为 2027 至 2028 年设定的下一代生产目标所取得的进展看起来很强劲。
You can see the price movement of QuantumScape stock here. The stock has fallen 60% since the beginning of the year, and progress towards the next-generation production target set by the management team for the period 2027-2028 appears strong.
所以，正如我提到的，我在 7 月 27 日将该股评级上调至“买入”，认为对于寻求可能成为神来之笔、或带来 100 倍回报、有可能让你的投资翻倍的高风险投资者来说，这是一个机会。
So, as I mentioned, I upgraded the stock to " buy" on July 27th, seeing it as an opportunity for high- risk investors looking for stocks that could be a masterstroke, or generate returns 100 times greater, potentially doubling your investment.
因此，这只股票可能归零，但也可能达到很高的价值。因此，它既蕴含着巨大的上行潜力，也伴随着巨大的下行风险。他们不会消耗太多资本，这也是我对这个机会感到兴奋的原因之一。
Therefore, this stock could reach zero, but it could also reach a great value. Therefore, it involves significant upside potential, but also significant downside risks. They don't deplete much of their capital, and that's one of the reasons I was excited about this opportunity.
如你所知，这家公司最多曾拥有约 15 亿美元的现金和短期投资。当然，他们于 2021 年上市，利用了围绕电动汽车股票的炒作，而鉴于其固态电池技术，他们的首要目标是电动汽车。
As you know , this company had at most about $1.5 billion in cash and short- term investments. Of course, they went public in 2021, taking advantage of the hype surrounding electric vehicle stocks, and given their solid-state battery technology, their primary target was electric vehicles.
这些电动汽车公司中有许多都遭受了损失，包括 QuantumScape。
Many of these electric vehicle companies have suffered, including QuantumScape.
在 7 月 27 日将其评级上调为买入推荐之前，我从未把这只股票评为买入机会。所以，他们现在拥有 8.2 亿美元的现金和短期投资。所以，自 2021 年以来，他们只花了约 8 亿美元就达到了今天的水平，而现在他们已经非常接近产品的制造阶段。
I never rated this stock as a buy opportunity until July 27, when I upgraded it to a buy recommendation . So, they now have $820 million in cash and in short-term investments. So, they have spent only about $800 million since 2021 to get to where they are today, and they are now very close to the manufacturing stage of their products .
他们目前正在推进“Eagle”生产线，这是他们给自己当前生产线起的名字。他们已经在生产可用的产量，并送往制造商进行测试。
They are currently working on the "Eagle" line , which is the name they give to their current manufacturing line. They are already producing viable quantities that are sent to manufacturers for testing.
本田等制造商正在其车辆中测试这项技术，以判断它是否已准备好进行更广泛的部署。因此，如果这项试验成功，那将不只是一个小成功，因为本田、丰田、大众或任何其他汽车制造商都不会选择只在其部分车型中部署这项技术。
如果成功，采用这项技术的电动汽车将在其生产的数千辆汽车中全面采用它。
Manufacturers such as Honda are testing this technology in their vehicles to see if it is ready for wider deployment. Therefore, if the experiment is successful, it will not be just a small success, because Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, or any other car manufacturer will not choose to deploy this technology in only some of their cars .
If successful, electric vehicles incorporating this technology will fully adopt it in all the thousands of units they produce.
所以，正因如此我才说，它要么会大获成功，要么会彻底失败。我不认为这只股票会取得任何平庸的结果。这家公司很难评估，因为它仍处于尚未产生收入的阶段。因此，我们关注的是它在研发方面取得的进展。
我们看市场潜力、市场规模，以及现金消耗速度相对于他们所取得进展的情况。
Therefore, and that is why I say it will either be a resounding success or a complete failure. I don't think this stock will achieve any average result. It is difficult to evaluate this company because it is still in the pre- revenue stage.
Therefore, we are looking at the progress made in research and development. We look at market potential, market size, and the rate of cash consumption compared to the progress they are making.
我们可以看的一个指标是市销率，因为他们已经开始关注客户发票了。他们开始收到来自客户的价值数百万美元的订单。这些只是分期付款，对吧？是试产批次，但样品现在的规模已经足够大，总价值将达到数百万美元。
One of the metrics we can look at is the price-to- sales ratio, because they have started to look at customer invoices. They started receiving orders worth several million dollars from customers.
These are just installments, aren't they? Trial batches, but the samples have now grown large enough that their total value will be several million dollars.
因此，目前的远期市销率为357。这是该公司历史上的最低水平。但话说回来，在评估 QuantumScape 时，这并不是一个很重要的指标，或者说，在评估其他公司和业务时也没有那么重要。
Thus , the price-to-forward sales ratio currently stands at 357. This is the lowest level in the company's history. But again, it is not a very important metric when evaluating QuantumScape, or not as important when evaluating other companies and businesses.
所以，让我非常乐观的因素之一，是 AI 产业的规模及其对能源和储能的需求。这可能是 QuantumScape 正在瞄准的新方向，可能会在投资者中引发更大的热情。这也可能为公司融资创造更容易的机会。
So, one of the things that makes me very optimistic is also the size of the AI industry and its energy and energy storage needs. This could be something new that QuantumScape is targeting and could create greater excitement among investors.
This may create an easier opportunity for the company to raise capital.
这个更大、可驾驭的市场机会，意味着 QuantumScape 的股票投资者能获得更大的收益。所以我要回答我在标题中提出的问题：在价格低迷时，这看起来像是一个买入机会吗？我认为是的。
This larger, manageable market opportunity means greater gains for QuantumScape's stock investors . So I will answer the question I posed in the title: Does this look like a buying opportunity when the price is low? I think so.
这是我有兴趣投资的公司之一，作为纳入我投资组合的高风险、高回报投资之一。我想提醒投资者，只有在你风险承受能力较高时，才应该对这家公司感兴趣。如果你愿意承担高于平均水平的风险，你知道这可以说是你能买到的最具风险的股票之一，但它也是我所跟踪的股票中增长机会最大的之一。
This is one of the companies that I am interested in investing in as one of those high-risk, high- return investments to include in my portfolio. I would remind investors that you should only be interested in this company if you have a high risk tolerance.
If you're willing to take above-average risk, you know this is arguably one of the riskiest stocks you can buy, but it has one of the greatest growth opportunities of any stock I follow.
因此，我重申，在比较风险与回报时，我认为这是一个有吸引力的机会，但只适合风险承受能力非常高的投资者。
Therefore, I reiterate that I believe it is an attractive opportunity when comparing risks versus returns, but only for investors with a very high risk tolerance.