重申买入 Roblox，信心程度为中等：股价 49.55 美元时，按接近多年来最低的 21 倍自由现金流市盈率看显得低估，但相对其约 46 美元的 DCF 公允价值仅属合理估值，刚好落在 5-10% 的安全边际之内；保守的收入确认方式低估了其收入。

Roblox, the leader in Metaverse, is working on rolling out additional features for developers to make the process of creating games that millions of users love to play easier and more exciting.

Remember that developers only make money on Roblox if their games generate spending and interaction from users. The developers are not directly employed by Roblox, but they are on the platform and design applications, and when their applications and games generate interaction and profits, these developers get paid.

I actually like this business model because it motivates developers to create engaging content. The developers are not employees of the company, which may reduce waste, as games are sometimes not appealing when developers are paid by the company regardless of whether they have created successful content or not.

I last reviewed Roblox on July 31st. At that time, the stock had been in freefall all year. It was trading at less than $40 a share, and I said it was a great buying opportunity at that low point.

Now I wanted to re-evaluate the company after the stock price jumped by about $10 or $12 since my last evaluation on July 31, to see if it was still an attractive buying opportunity.

You can see the price movement of Roblox stock here. The stock is still down more than 38% since the start of 2026, but it is recovering well from those lows of around $38 and $35 per share on July 31.

This company has been a surprise to me since the economic reopening. Of course, this leading metaverse company directs its content towards younger individuals, specifically children under the age of 11.

Naturally, it flourished during the pandemic when children were at home away from school, extracurricular activities were cancelled, and children and parents had to find a way to keep their children occupied during those lockdown periods.

The company added millions of new customers and business was booming, but surprisingly it is still growing even after the economic reopening. The company generated revenues of $5.7 billion during the past 12 months.

This represents a significant increase from approximately $200 million in 2019.

Roblox was one of the companies that made significant efforts to reduce costs in late 2022. Remember that this was at a time when there was a lot of fear of an impending recession as the US Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates.

Those cost-cutting efforts are now beginning to pay off.

As you can see, Roblox's operating cash flow to sales ratio has more than doubled from 15% in 2023 to 37% over the past 12 months. Roblox is still losing money on its net profits, but remember that every time I make a video about Roblox, I highlight the way the company calculates its revenue.

When families or anyone else deposits money into the Roblox platform, remember that Roblox is free to play, but you can buy premium products using the "Rubex" currency. You put money into the platform, say $10, and in return you get "Robux".

After that, that "Rubex" currency is used in the games on the platform.

Roblox charges for those ten dollars as if people would spread their purchases over a period of 12 to 24 months. However, most individuals who earn money on the platform spend it relatively quickly.

If you have children, tell me if your children will distribute $10 over 12 to 24 months, or $20 or $40, whatever the amount may be. I know that when my children were younger and used Roblox, they would spend that ten dollars they received for their birthday or Christmas in a weekend or a day or two, not over 12 or 18 months.

Therefore, Roblox follows conservative accounting policies, and this leads to significant losses that contribute to a decline in net profits; Because its revenues are not adequately reported in my opinion, which makes its income statement look worse than it actually is.

After the company undertook restructuring and cost control efforts, its revenue per employee increased significantly. In 2023, they were generating $1.2 million per employee. This figure has risen to $1.76 million.

Now, because of the policies and how they treat developers as contractors who create content for the platform, where they only share in the revenue generated rather than salaries, this creates a situation where the company's revenue per employee can continue to increase significantly from here.

Especially when you combine the productivity benefits resulting from artificial intelligence, this number could continue to increase for Roblox.

For me, the most accurate figure to use in valuation based on Roblox's market multiplier is the price-to-free cash flow, due to the way the company calculates revenue recognition.

In my opinion, the price-to-earnings ratio or price-to-earnings ratio is not as useful as the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio.

According to this metric, Roblox is trading near its lowest valuation in years at the 21 level. Today, I also updated my Roblox valuation using discounted cash flow, and I estimate the fair value at around $46.

The current market price is $49.55, which is within my safety margin or very close to it by 5 to 10%.

Therefore, I would say that the stock appears to be undervalued based on the price-to-free cash flow ratio, while it appears to be fairly valued when using my discounted cash flow model.

I last evaluated the company on July 31, rating it as a buy opportunity with a medium level of conviction. Today I will reaffirm that purchase recommendation with a moderate level of conviction.