$RDDT · Daniel Pronk · 2026-11-04
Reddit 在 19 倍自由现金流和 12 倍远期自由现金流下看起来便宜，若能维持约 40% 的增长、甚至只增长 20%，则会显得非常便宜；然而，说话者对其增长可持续性存疑，缺乏持有信心，并提到美国日活跃用户同比下降 2%，以及管理层警告称，随着 Google AI 搜索推荐每周减少 100 万次，第四季度日活跃用户可能下降低双位数百分比。
逐段跳播
Shopify。接下来我们聊聊 Intel 和 Reddit。这是一个非常有意思的话题。
Shopify. Next we'll talk about Intel and Reddit. This is a very interesting topic.
好，现在我们来看看 Reddit。Reddit 的股价去年较历史最高点下跌了66%。过去一个月里它下跌了近45%，这是又一只在发布财报后彻底崩盘的股票。
Okay, now let's head over to Reddit. Reddit shares fell 66 percent from their all-time high last year. It has fallen nearly 45 percent in the past month and is another stock that has completely collapsed after the release of its earnings report.
看 Reddit 的财报可以发现，其日活跃独立用户增长了12%，达到1.303亿。周活跃独立用户增长了16%，达到5.152亿。营收收入同比增长了53%。净利润增长了70%，经营现金流几乎翻倍，同比增长了96%。
综合来看，这对 Reddit 来说其实是一个很棒的里程碑。
Looking at Reddit's earnings report, it can be seen that their daily active unique users increased by 12 percent to 130.3 million. Weekly active unique users increased by 16 percent to 515.2 million.
Revenue income has also increased by 53 percent compared to last year. Net income increased by 70 percent and operating cash flow nearly doubled, increasing by 96 percent compared to last year.
All things considered, this was actually a great milestone for Reddit.
他们目前预计第四季度营收将超过10亿美元，EBITDA 将接近5亿美元。这意味着第四季度营收同比增长近40%，比他们过去几年一直保持的增速放缓得多。从这张截图可以看到，Reddit 自2024年以来一直以约60%到70%的速度稳定增长。
所以现在40%的增长对这项业务来说已经是大幅放缓。分析师担心这种放缓会持续，到2027年底增速将降至30%。
They are now forecasting more than $1 billion in revenue and nearly $500 million in EBITDA for the fourth quarter. That's nearly 40% year-over-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter, a much larger slowdown than the pace they've been seeing over the past few years.
In this screenshot, you can see that Reddit has been growing consistently at a rate of around 60 to 70% since 2024. So 40% growth is now a major slowdown for business. Analysts fear that this slowdown will continue and that growth will drop to 30% by the end of 2027.
但这并不是股价大幅下跌的主要原因。Reddit 公布其美国日活跃用户同比下降了2%。不过，其国际日活跃用户增长了24%，整体日活跃用户增长了12%。但美国是业务利润的主要来源，而那里的日活跃用户仍然出现了下降。
美国登录日活跃用户仅增长了1%，但美国每用户平均收入增长了53%，全球增长了36%。这意味着 Reddit 从每个用户身上赚了很多钱，但用户基数并没有增长，尤其是在美国。
But this is not the main reason for the huge decline. Reddit reported that its US daily active users declined 2% year-over-year. However, their international daily active users grew by 24% and their overall daily active users grew by 12%.
But the United States is the main driver of business profits, and daily active users there have still declined. Daily active users logged in in the United States grew by just 1 %, but average revenue per user grew by 53% in the United States and 36% globally.
That means Reddit is making a lot of money per user, but their user base is not growing, especially in the United States.
在电话会议上，管理层警告称，第四季度整体用户基数可能会下降。这是因为来自 Google 的搜索推荐平均每周减少了100万。管理层表示，如果这一趋势持续，第四季度日活跃用户可能下降到低双位数百分比，这是巨大而陡峭的下滑。
原因是 Google 新的 AI 模式和摘要功能让人们不再点击 Google 上的链接，而 Reddit 很大一部分流量正来自那里。
In the conference call, management warned that their overall user base could decline in the fourth quarter. This is because search referrals from Google have decreased by an average of 1 million per week.
Management said that if this trend continues, daily active users could fall to a low double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter, which is a huge and steep decline. The reason for this is Google's new AI mode and summaries, which are preventing people from clicking on links on Google, which is where Reddit gets a large portion of its traffic.
今年8月21日，我在 Reddit 上就 X 与某人有过一场辩论，我说我不喜欢这项业务，因为它太依赖 Google 的决策。本质上，Reddit 的增长和成功超出了他们自己的控制范围，而我认为 Google 现在正在证明这一点。
这让我对这项业务感到不安，这也是我一直不想买入其股票的原因。
On August 21st of this year, I had a debate with someone on Reddit about X and said that I don't like this business because it is too dependent on Google's decisions. Essentially, Reddit's growth and success are beyond their own control, and I think Google is now proving that.
This makes me uncomfortable about the business, and it's why I never wanted to buy shares in it.
不过必须说，Reddit 目前的交易价格是自由现金流的19倍，而按前瞻自由现金流估算只有12倍。而且根据第四季度的预测，这项业务仍以约40%的速度增长，并且非常赚钱。所以，如果 Reddit 能保持这一增速，甚至从这里再增长20%，那么在我看来这只股票显得非常便宜。
不过，我对这项业务的真实可持续性及其增长潜力持怀疑态度，尤其是如果 Google 继续朝 AI 结果方向发展并扰乱他们获取新用户的过程。总的来说，我认为 Reddit 看起来很便宜，但这不是一只我个人有足够信心将其保留在投资组合中或建仓的股票。
However, it must be said that Reddit is now trading at 19 times its free cash flow and only 12 times its forward free cash flow estimate. And according to the fourth quarter forecast, this business is still growing at a rate of about 40% and is very profitable.
So, if Reddit can maintain this growth rate, or even grow by 20% from here, then this stock looks very cheap in my opinion. However, I am skeptical about the true sustainability of this business and its growth potential, especially if Google continues to move towards AI results and disrupts their process of acquiring new users.
Overall, I think Reddit looks cheap, but it's not a stock that I personally have enough confidence in to keep it in my portfolio or take a position in.