RH 是买入标的;当前 20 亿美元估值提供上行空间至 400 美元以上(最好情况下超过 1000 美元),得益于利润率/现金流的早期扭转、欧洲门店盈利、强劲的餐饮业务以及通过 RH Compounds 改善的融资。
逐段跳播
这七只股票中的第五只,哦,很令人兴奋,但风险也大,不过仍然非常酷。你知道是什么吗?RH,Restoration Hardware。
Number five of these seven stocks , oh, it's exciting , but it's risky , but it's still very cool. Do you know what it is? RH, Restoration Hardware.
哦,这只股票在过去一年里受到了非常严重的打击。它下跌了44%,对吧?在我看来,长期来看这是一只价值超过400美元的股票。未来几年RH最好的情况是,其股价将超过一千美元,对吧?
Oh, this stock has been hit really bad in the last year. It's down 44% , right? In my opinion, it's a stock worth over $400 in the long run. The best case scenario for RH in the coming years is that its share price will go over a thousand dollars , right?
说到 RH,也就是 Restoration Hardware。现在没人愿意持有这只股票。我们之前聊过 Resorts,它的情况几乎一模一样,Wynn 下跌了略低于 40%。在高利率环境下,没人愿意持有这类股票。
RH 也是一样,现在股价是 117,过去一年下跌了 44%。
Now, speaking of RH or Restoration Hardware. So, nobody wants to hold this stock right now . We win We talked about Resorts, which has been in pretty much the same situation , right?
Wynn is down a little under 40 percent. Nobody wants to hold that kind of stock in a high interest rate environment. So, RH is another one, which is now at 117 , right? It's down 44 percent in the last year , right?
RH 有意思的地方在于,看看这两个数字。你只要花略高于 20 亿美元的市值就能买下整家公司。它是家具行业里一个独特的品牌,而我在想,整家公司只值 20 亿美元,所以我必须开始买入。
所以我最近开始买入这只股票,而且我认为我得大幅增加在这上面的投资,因为整家公司只值 20 亿美元。
Now, the interesting thing about RH is, look at those two. You're getting the whole company for just over $2 billion in market cap , right ? It's a unique brand in the furniture world, and I'm thinking the whole company is only worth $2 billion , so I have to start buying it , right ?
So, I recently started buying this stock and I think I'm going to have to increase my investment here by a good amount , because the whole company is only worth $2 billion.
记住,五年前这家公司处于巅峰时,利润率、利润以及其他一切指标都处在最高水平。而且显然,在利率上升之前,2021 到 2022 年我们有一个规模较小的住房市场。当时存在泡沫。RH 的市值曾超过 200 亿美元,我是说几十亿美元,一个不可思议的数字,真的不可思议。
而现在你只要花大约 20 亿美元就能买下整家公司。作为一名价值投资者,我喜欢现在投资。如果任何人看到了什么,我认为那里存在机会。
Remember, when this business was at its peak five years ago, margins, profits and everything else were at their highest levels, right? And obviously, before interest rates went up, we had a kind of small housing market in 2021 to 2022.
There was a bubble, right? Um, RH had a market cap of over $20 billion, I mean billions of dollars, an incredible number, really incredible number, right? And now you can get the whole company for about $2 billion.
And as a value investor, I like to invest right now, right ? And if anyone sees anything, I think there's an opportunity there, right ?
RH 现在开始好转了。如果你看这家公司的收入流,它显然正朝着正确的方向走。利润率最近也开始上升。我说的是毛利率和净利率两者。所以 RH 肯定开始好转了,这是件好事。我们正处在 RH 好转的非常早期阶段。
Now, RH is starting to turn around. If you look at the revenue stream of this company, it's clearly moving in the right direction. The margins have also started to increase very recently.
I'm talking about both the gross margin and the net margin. So, RH is definitely starting to turn around, and that's a good thing. We're in the very early stages of RH's turnaround , right?
如果你看这家公司的自由现金流,几个季度前它还处于非常糟糕的状态,而在过去 12 个月里它恢复得非常好,而且这个自由现金流的故事还有很长的路要走。每股自由现金流,这个故事还有很长的路要走,比如说,
Now, if you look at the company's free cash flow, it was in a very bad state a few quarters ago, and it's come back very nicely over the last 12 months , and You know, there's still a long way to go in this free cash flow story , right?
Free cash flow per share, there's a long way to go in this story , for example,
如果你看成屋销售,这可以说是美国历史上最糟糕的市场,甚至比大衰退时还糟。我是说,没人在搬家。而且尽管美国的人口比过去多得多,过去几年里却一直没人在搬家。也许它会永远这样,没人再搬家了。
我不认为它会永远这样。我认为住房市场会在 2027、2028、2029 年好转。而且我认为 RH 会是这整件事最大的受益者之一。
if you look at existing home sales, it's arguably the worst market in the history of the United States, even worse than the Great Recession, right? I mean, nobody's moving houses.
And even though the population in the United States is much larger than it used to be, nobody's been moving houses for the last few years. Maybe it's going to be like that forever and nobody's ever moving again.
I don't think it's going to be like that forever , right ? I think the housing market is going to turn around in 2027, 2028, 2029. And I think RH is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this whole thing , right?
我喜欢 RH 的另一点是,他们在增加现金及现金等价物。如果你看这只股票,这也是我年初没有买入它的原因,他们的现金持有量下降了很多。是 4100 万。它降到了 1.25 亿美元。
但现在我们有了一些保护。目前现金及现金等价物已升至 1.25 亿美元。而且他们有价值 7.72 亿美元的库存。所以并不是说他们的库存已经耗尽了。所以看到现金增加是好事。如果他们资产负债表上有大约四分之一个十亿,也就是 2.5 亿美元,我会更放心。
但它正朝着正确的方向走,这让我对现在买入这只股票更有信心。因为没人愿意拥有一家手头只有 4100 万美元现金的数十亿美元公司。那是一个非常非常小的数字。所以我们正在积累。我们还得把这个数字做大。我希望它大得多。
Now, another thing that I like about RH is that they're increasing their cash and cash equivalents. So, if you look at the stock, and this is why I was n't buying it at the beginning of the year, their cash holdings are down a lot.
It's 41 million. It came down to $125 million. But now we have some protection. Right now, cash and cash equivalents are up to $125 million , right ? And they have $772 million worth of inventory .
So, it's not like they've run out of inventory , right? So, it's good to see the cash increase . I would be more comfortable if they had about a quarter of a billion, $250 million, on the balance sheet.
But it's moving in the right direction and it makes me a lot more confident in buying the stock right now, right ? Because nobody wants to own a multi-billion dollar company that only has $41 million in cash on hand.
That's a really, really small number, right ? So, we're building. We still have to grow that number. I want it to be much bigger , right?
我理解 RH 的另一点是,你必须明白,在 2021、2022 年,他们的生意做得很好。他们赚了很多钱。所以他们变得非常有野心。他们说:“我们要在欧洲扩张业务。”我们要把这一大笔钱中的很大一部分拿去在欧洲扩张业务。
于是他们在欧洲开了非常昂贵、非常昂贵的门店。RH England、RH Munich、RH Brussels、RH Madrid、RH Paris,去年年底开的。RH Milan 今年,RH London 今年。
这些门店非常昂贵,在欧洲建立业务是一件非常耗时的事。还要在那些大市场里建立品牌认知度。所以,听着,这非常昂贵。但是,很大一部分巨额开支现在已经过去了,现在那些零售展厅将在未来几年开始为他们赚很多钱。
所以,这些东西可以从亏钱变成赚钱,这会大幅改变公司的财务状况和利润率。我说的具体是公司的净利润。
Now, the other thing I understand about RH is, you have to understand that in 2021, 2022, their business was doing great. They were making a lot of money. So, they became very ambitious.
And they say,“We're going to expand our business in Europe , right?” "We're going to take a big chunk of all this money and we're going to expand the business in Europe. And so, they've opened very expensive, very expensive stores in Europe , right?
RH England, RH Munich, RH Brussels, RH Madrid, RH Paris, late last year , right? RH Milan this year, RH London this year. Like, those stores are very expensive, it's a very time-consuming thing to build a business in Europe, right?
And to get their brand recognition in those big markets. So, listen , it's very expensive. But, a lot of that big expense is behind the company now and now those retail galleries are going to start making them a lot of money in the coming years.
And so, these things can go from being a money-loser to a money-maker and that changes the financial position of the company and the profit margin in a big way , right? I'm talking specifically about the net profit of the company , right?
所以,听着,这非常昂贵。但是,很大一部分巨额开支现在已经过去了,现在那些零售展厅将在未来几年开始为他们赚很多钱。所以,这些东西可以从亏钱变成赚钱,这会大幅改变公司的财务状况和利润率。我说的具体是公司的净利润。
So, listen , it's very expensive. But, a lot of that big expense is behind the company now and now those retail galleries are going to start making them a lot of money in the coming years.
And so, these things can go from being a money-loser to a money- maker and that changes the financial position of the company and the profit margin in a big way , right? I'm talking specifically about the net profit of the company , right?
你需要了解 RH 的另一点是,他们还有一块餐饮业务。而且这很不可思议。平均而言,每家 RH 餐厅一年赚 1000 万美元。所以当你听说这些餐厅时,你会想:“好吧,这是一家家具公司,高端家具公司,他们还有餐厅。
谁在乎呢?”其实,这些非常重要。1000 万美元可不是个小数目。RH 在 Newport Beach 的餐厅一年营业额超过 2000 万美元。那是个不可思议的数字。
Now, the other thing you need to understand about RH is, they also have a restaurant division of the business, right ? And it's incredible. On average, each RH restaurant makes $10 million a year.
So, when you hear about these restaurants, you think, "Okay, this is a furniture company, high-end furniture company, and they have restaurants." Who cares? "Actually, these are very important. $10 million is not a small amount, right?
RH's restaurant in Newport Beach is doing over $20 million a year. That's an incredible number.
想想 Texas Roadhouse。Texas Roadhouse 总是挤满了人。Texas Roadhouse 大约赚 800 万美元。而 RH 甚至超过了这些大公司。这很不可思议。
Think about Texas Roadhouse. Texas Roadhouse is always packed. Texas Roadhouse makes about $8 million , right? And RH is beating even these big companies , right ? And that's incredible.
你可以说:“嗯,RH 的食物贵得多,因为他们是高端客户,而且通过销售高品质产品,这类问题就不再是问题了。”是的,但归根结底,听着,要做到那种数字,你必须有很大的客流量。这真的很不可思议,不是吗?
而且是的,这对 RH 品牌真的很好。他们,他们做得很对。他们的餐厅是一流的。
And you can say, "Well, their food at RH is a lot more expensive because they're a high-end customer and By selling high quality products , these kinds of issues are no longer a problem.
"Yeah, but at the end of the day, listen, to get those kinds of numbers, you have to do a lot of volume . It's really incredible, isn't it ? And yeah, it's really good for the RH brand.
They, they do it right. Their restaurants are top-notch.
RH Estates。这是 RH 的游戏规则改变者之一,我认为人们现在没有意识到这是多大的一件事。RH,他们现在正在建所有这些巨大的门店。而这些巨大门店的难处在于,谁会愿意为它们提供融资?
假设 RH 破产了,谁来接手这些门店?我是说,它们在其他任何地方都用不上。所以为它们获得融资非常困难。房东通常不愿意做这类交易。
RH Estates. Now, this is one of the game changers for RH, I don't think people realize how big of a deal it is right now. RH, they're building all these huge stores right now , right ?
And the hard part about these huge stores is, who's going to want to finance them? Suppose RH goes bankrupt, right ? Who's going to take over these stores? I mean, they're not usable anywhere else, right?
So it's very difficult to get financing for them. Landlords don't usually want to do those kinds of deals.
但有意思的是,他们现在想出了这个 RH Estates 的概念。我真的很喜欢它。这是他们做的一种开放式概念。我不认为它叫 RH Estates。它会叫 RH Compound,RH Compound。
我在这里写的是 RH Estates。RH Compound 才是他们叫的名字。它意味着一堆较小的建筑,比他们目前的大建筑容易建得多。一切都做得很精致,但是是较小的建筑,加上一个庭院、餐厅和咖啡吧,把一切连接起来。最终是多栋建筑,你可以为不同目的去那里。
But the interesting thing is, they've come up with this RH Estates concept now. And I really like it. It's an open concept that they've done, right ? I do n't think It's called RH Estates.
It's going to be RH Compound , RH Compound. I've written RH Estates here. RH Compound is what they call it. It means a bunch of smaller buildings, which are much easier to build than their current big buildings.
Everything is nicely done, but smaller buildings and a courtyard, restaurants and coffee bars that connect everything, right? And ultimately multiple buildings where you can go for different purposes.
这种体验的妙处在于,如果你是地主,你可以看着它说:“好吧,我可以以低得多的利率为这个项目融资,因为即使 RH 关门了,把这些商业建筑租出去也比租他们那些巨大的 RH 建筑容易得多。”
“如果 RH 关门了,还有谁会去他们那栋巨大的建筑?”
The great thing about this experience is that if you're a landowner, you can look at it and say, " Okay, I can finance this project at a much cheaper rate , because even if RH closes, it's much easier to get tenants in these commercial buildings than in the big RH buildings."
" Who else will go to that huge building of theirs if RH is closed ?"
现在,另一个项目更像是他们自己的一个小镇,我不想把它叫做小镇,但它更像是一个不错的商业街,对吧?所以你很容易在里面找到一家服装店租户、一家餐厅、一家咖啡吧和一家冰淇淋店。所以这是个很棒的想法,但没错,我认为把它称为RH综合体更准确。
Now, this other project is more like their own little town, I do n't want to call it a little town, but it's more like a nice strip mall, right? So you can easily find a clothing store tenant, a restaurant, a coffee bar, and an ice cream shop in it.
So it's a great idea, but yes, I think it's more accurate to call it an RH compound.
所以他们现在做的是,在佛罗里达进行测试。他们将在佛罗里达开一到两家门店。我对此感觉很好。我喜欢它,因为它对RH来说真的是一个改变游戏规则的东西。所以你需要理解他们如何能改变公司的财务状况以及未来几年的扩张机会,对吧?
So what they're doing now is, they're testing it in Florida. They are going to open one or two locations in Florida. And I feel great about it. I like it because it's really a game changer for RH.
So you need to understand how they can change the company's financial situation and their expansion opportunities in the coming years , right ?
现在,关于RH的最后一件事是,Gary Friedman在很多年前接管了这家公司,对吧?当时公司的市值大约是2000万美元。几乎濒临破产。看看他建立起来的东西,对吧?从一家2000万美元的公司变成一家价值超过20亿美元的公司,即使在最糟糕的住房市场条件下它也是一家20亿美元的公司。
而它还有潜力成为一家价值超过100亿美元的公司,对吧?这太不可思议了。
Now, the last thing about RH is, Gary Friedman took over the company many years ago, right ? And the company's market value was about $20 million. Almost on the verge of bankruptcy.
And look what he has built, right? From a $20 million company to a company worth over $2 billion, it was a $2 billion company even in the worst housing market conditions. Which has the potential to become a company worth over $10 billion , right? This is incredible.
所以,几年前他做了一个非常糟糕的决定,用信贷买了很多股票。在我看来,这是一个非常糟糕的决定。是的,这是一个非常糟糕的决定,因为他本可以现在以便宜得多的价格买那些股票,对吧?所以,他这么做了。
但总体而言,我会说他为这家公司做了很多好的决定。在最糟糕的住房市场中,把2000万美元的市值变成了超过20亿美元的市值。我认为这值得一说。所以,在这个特定情况下,他是个梦想家,好吧?
So, he made a very bad decision a few years ago when he bought a lot of shares on credit. In my opinion, this was a very bad decision. Yes, it was a very bad decision because he could have bought those shares much cheaper now , right?
So, he did it. But overall, I would say he made a lot of good decisions for this company. Creating a market value of over $2 billion from a market value of $20 million in the worst housing market.
I think there's something to be said about that. So, he's a dreamer in this particular case , okay?
这个频道对 $RH 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 9 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。