$RIVN · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-31
Rivian 获上调至买入评级，信心程度为中等：股价在下跌90%至约11.50美元后，较估算的13.60美元公允价值低约20%，长期风险回报具有吸引力。自由现金流前景依然疲弱——产能超过20万辆，而今年预计销量约6.5万辆——但说话者认为，除了对电动车需求的高估之外，管理层的决策是明智的。
逐段跳播
多年来，我一直提醒投资者避开 Rivian 的股票，而随着它从125美元跌到100美元，我又做了更多视频来告诉投资者，它仍然太贵了。
For years, I've been warning investors to avoid Rivian stock, and as it has dropped from $125 to $100, I've made more videos to inform investors that it's still too expensive.
而当它从100跌到75时，这提醒投资者，它仍然太贵，远不足以被视为买入机会。我收到了很多评论，也和投资者进行了几次交流，他们主张这其实是一个买入机会，而我当时表示我并不这么认为。
And as it dropped from 100 to 75, it reminded investors that it was still far too expensive to justify being considered a buying opportunity. I received a lot of comments and had several sessions with investors who argued that it was actually a buying opportunity, and I was suggesting that I did not think so.
股价继续从75跌到50，又从50跌到25。投资者告诉我，25美元的价格肯定是买入机会，而我不这么认为。这只股票继续从25跌到20，然后跌到15，我一次又一次地提醒投资者，在我看来，在权衡风险与回报时，这并不是一个好机会。
The stock price continued to fall from 75 to 50, and from 50 to 25. Investors told me that the price at 25 was definitely a buying opportunity, and I didn't think so. The stock continued to fall from 25 to 20, then to 15, and time and time again I warned investors that the situation was not a good opportunity in my opinion when balancing risks with returns.
如今，这只股票已从历史高点下跌了90%，创下52周新低。Rivian 的股价为11.51美元，我希望你在过去五年甚至更长时间里至少看过我一个视频，我在其中谈到过这家公司被高估得多么严重。
Today, stocks have fallen 90% from their all-time high, hitting a new 52-week low. Rivian's stock price is at $11.51, and I hope you've seen at least one of my videos over the past five years or more, in which I've talked about how overvalued this company is.
但今天，我终于将 Rivian 的股票评级上调为“买入”。它终于到了一个风险回报比对长期投资者有吸引力的位置。
But today, finally, I am upgrading Rivian stock to a "buy" rating. It has finally reached a point where the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive to long-term investors.
你可以在这里看到我的表格，我在2026年10月26日将 Rivian 的股票上调为买入机会，信心程度为中等，当时公司正准备在几天后公布季度财务业绩。
You can see my spreadsheet here where I upgraded Rivian stock to a buy opportunity with a medium conviction level on October 26, 2026, as the company prepared to announce its quarterly financial results in a few days.
今天我重新审视了我对 Rivian 未来几年自由现金流的估算，这些年来我一直这么做，而几乎每一次我的估算结果都偏低。
Today I reviewed my estimates for Rivian's free cash flow for the coming years, as I have been doing all these years, and almost every time my estimates come in lower.
我是悲观的，我一直对这家公司产生自由现金流的能力持悲观态度，而多年来情况不断恶化，因为其汽车的需求从未达到管理团队所希望的水平。
I am pessimistic, and I was pessimistic about the company's ability to generate free cash flow, and over the years the situation has worsened because demand for its vehicles has never reached the levels the management team had hoped for.
即使经过今天的下调，Rivian 的公允价值估计仍为13.60美元，而随着市场价格创下11.43美元的新低，它现在被低估了约20%。
Even after today’s downward revisions, Rivian’s fair value was estimated at $13.60, and with the market price hitting a new low of $11.43, it is now undervalued by about 20%.
不过，正如我提到的，过去几年我的评估结果越来越低。尽管你可能觉得我对 Rivian 已经够悲观了，实际情况其实比我估计的还要糟。
However, as I mentioned, my reviews have been declining more and more over the past few years. As much as you thought I was pessimistic about Rivian, the situation was actually worse than I estimated.
今天我把我对 Rivian 的估算下调了几亿美元。这家公司的问题在于，它建起了自己无法维持的制造产能。这意味着它的制造产能每年能生产超过20万辆汽车，但它卖不出去，也不指望今年能卖出超过约6.5万辆，而这已经是它历史上最好的年份之一。
Today I lowered my estimates for Rivian by a few hundred million. The problem with the company is that it has built up manufacturing capacity at a level it cannot maintain. This means that it has the manufacturing capacity to produce more than 200,000 vehicles annually, but it cannot sell, and does not expect to sell, more than about 65,000 units this year, which would be one of its best years in history.
因此，即使是在创纪录的一年，公司也只会用上其可用制造产能的一小部分。它还有计划，并且已经建了第二座制造工厂，目前正在建设中。建设工作已经停工，因为需求远未达到管理团队当时所希望的水平。
Therefore, even in a record year, the company will only produce a small fraction of its available manufacturing capacity. It also has plans, and has built a second manufacturing facility that is currently under construction.
Construction work has been halted because demand was nowhere near what the management team had hoped it would be at this point in time.
除了有吸引力的估值之外，我今天将 Rivian 的股票上调为买入机会的另一个原因是，Rivian 的管理团队在面临的艰难处境下做得相当不错。
In addition to the attractive valuation, another reason for my upgrading Rivian stock to a buy opportunity today is that Rivian's management team has done a reasonably good job under the difficult circumstances they have faced.
除了他们的第一个决定效果不太好，也就是对电动汽车需求的预测，那个预测被大大夸大了。除了那个错误或糟糕的预期之外，我在谈论管理团队时并不喜欢用“错误”这个词，因为事后看愿景总是很清晰。那是他们基于当时掌握的信息做出的决定。
With the exception of their first decision, which did not work very well, namely predicting the demand for electric vehicles, which was greatly exaggerated. Apart from that mistake or poor expectations, I don't like to use the word mistakes when I talk about management teams because the vision is always clear in retrospect.
It was a decision they made based on the information they had.
但除此之外，考虑到他们所面临的处境、经济和形势，他们做出了合理的决策来向前推进。因此，现在的估值变得更有吸引力了。这些业务变得更加成熟。与两年前相比，竞争优势已经有了显著发展。
所以，我现在觉得终于到了买入 Rivian 股票有吸引力的时候了。
But, aside from that, they made sensible decisions to move forward given the circumstances they faced, given the economy, and given the situation. Therefore, the evaluation has now become more attractive.
The businesses have become more mature. The competitive advantages have evolved significantly compared to two years ago. And so, I now feel that it is finally an attractive time to buy Rivian stock.
这个频道对 $RIVN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。